WELCOME TO WFO ALBANY’S FIRST FIRE WEATHER CONFERENCE

1. WELCOME TO WFO ALBANY’S FIRST FIRE WEATHER CONFERENCE MARCH 15 2006 HUGH JOHNSON FIRE WEATHER PROGRAM LEADER

2. FIRE WEATHER SEASON • THIS YEAR BEGIN MARCH 20TH • NORMALLY ENDS NOVEMBER 15 • CAN BE ADJUSTED EARLIER/LATER BASED ON UNUSUAL WEATHER PATTERNS

3. WHAT WILL WE DISCUSS TODAY? • ROUTINE FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS • SPECIAL PRODUCTS ISSUED • HOW TO ACCESS OUR PRODUCTS • * YOUR FEEDBACK ON THE CONFERENCE/FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS

4. ROUTINE WEATHER PRODUCTS INCLUDE • FIRE PLANNING FORECAST PRODUCT (FWF) • NATIONAL FIRE RATING DANGER SYSTEM (NFRDS) FOR MARLBORO, VT • FIRE WEATHER GRIDS

5. HOW TO LOOK AT FIRE WEATHER GRIDS AND OTHER PRODUCTS • GO TO http://www.weather.gov/aly • CLICK ON EXPERIMENTAL FORECAST IMAGES IN LOWER RIGHT HAND CORNER • CLICK ON FIRE WEATHER ON THE TOP • PICK CATEGORY

7. SPECIAL PRODUCTS ISSUED • FIRE WEATHER WATCH (FWW) • RED FLAG WARNING (RFW) • INTERNET SPOT REQUEST PROGAM

8. FWF WEATHER PARAMETERS INCLUDE • TEMPERATURE AND WEATHER • RELATIVE HUMIDTY (DEWPOINT) • WIND • MIXING HEIGHT • TRANSPORT WINDS • VENT RATE • LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL (LAL) • HAINES INDEX • DAVIS STABILITY INDEX (DSI)

9. EXAMPLE OF OUR FIRE PLANNING FORECAST (FWF)

11. LET’S TAKE A LOOK AT SOME OF THE OTHER PARAMETERS OF THE FWF

12. FIRST WE LOOK AT THE MIXING HEIGHT • LIFT THE PARCEL DRY ADIABATICALLY • WHEN IT INTERSECTS THE ACTUAL SOUNDING OF THE DAY IS THE MIXING HEIGHT • CAN CHANGE QUITE A BIT DURING THE DAY

13. WHAT ARE THE TRANSPORT WINDS? • THE AVERAGE WIND SPEED FROM THE GROUND TO THE MIXING HEIGHT • AGAIN, THIS COULD VARY QUITE A BIT THROUGH THE DAY • BOTH THESE PARAMETERS ARE AVERAGED OVER A 12-HOUR PERIOD

14. VENTILATION RATE ON FWF • MERELY THE PRODUCT OF TRANSPORT WIND AND MIXING HEIGHT (YES YOU CAN DO THE MATH!) • THE BEST WAY TO CALCULATE DISPERSION

15. LIGHTNING ACTVITY (LAL) • NONE • ISOLATED/ WIDELY SCT/SLGHT CHC (15-24 POP) • 3 SCATTERED/CHANCE (25-54 POP) • 4 NUMEROUS/LIKELY (55-74 POP) • CATEGORICAL/WDSRPD (>74 POP) • LIGHTNING OF ANY KIND WITHOUT ANY RAIN!

16. WHAT EXACTLY IS THE HAINES INDEX ON THE FWF? • DEVELOPED BY DONALD HAINES WITH THE USDA FOREST SERVICE IN 1988. • AN INDEX THAT GIVES AN INDICATION FOR A FIRE “BLOW-UP” LEADING TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

17. HOW IS THE HAINES INDEX CALCULATED • STABILITY (T950-T850) + A MOISTURE TERM (Td925-Td850) • STABILITY TERM • 1 = 3 DEG C OR LESS • 2 = 4-7 DEG C • 3= 8 DEG C OR MORE • MOISTURE TERM • 1= 5 DEG C OR LESS • 2= 6-9 DEG C • 3= 10 DEG C OR MORE

18. FINAL HAINES RESULT • SIMPLY ADD TWO TERMS • RANGES FROM 2-6 • 2-3 VERY LOW (STABLE) • 4 LOW (NEUTRAL) • 5 MODERATE (UNSTABLE) • 6 HIGH (VERY UNSTABLE)

19. WHY HAINES? • HIGH HAINES INDEX STRONGLY CORRELAES WITH A DANGEROUS PLUME DOMINATED FIRE!

20. DAVIS STABILITY INDEX (DSI) • IS SIMPLY THE LAPSE RATE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 850MB LEVEL • ADVANTAGES • MAKES USE OF THE LEVEL WE LIVE • VERY EASY TO CALCULATE • DISADVANTAGES • STILL DOES NOT FACTOR IN ANY LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS • NOT AS WELL DOCUMENTED AS HAINES

21. THRESHOLD OF D.S.I. • (TMX-T850) LESS THAN 10C = STBL • (TMX-T850) 10-14C = COND UNSTBL • (TMAX-T850) 15-17C= UNSTBL • (TMAX-T850) > 17C=VRY UNSTBL

22. HOW DO CAN YOU ACCESS THE FWF??? • GO TO http://www.weather.gov/ • CLICK ON FIRE WEATHER LINK ON THE RIGHT SIDE IN THE BLUE AREA • ONCE THERE, CLICK WHERE ON FIRE WEATHER FORECAST • IF NOT CURRENT PLEASE CALL US AT 1-800-239-2123!

23. WHAT IS NFDRS • NATIONAL FIRE DANGER RATING SYSTEM

24. THE NFDRS IS A NUMERIC SCALING OF THE POTENTIAL OVER A LARGE AREA FOR FIRE TO IGNITE, SPREAD AND REQUIRE FIRE SUPPRESSION ACTION. UTILITZED BY MOST STATE AND FEDERAL AGENCIES.

25. MORE ON NFDRS • ROUTINE SPOT FORECAST FOR MARLBORO, VT (42 50 16 LAT 72 44 06 LON) • 1686 FEET ABOVE SEA-LEVEL • ISSUED ONLY DURING THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE

26. RED FLAG WARNING/FIRE WEATHER WATCH • CRITERIA DURING NON-LEAF SYSTEM • FIVE DAYS OF NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL (0.25 INCHES) • FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS THAN 30 PERCENT • WIND GUSTS 25 MPH OR HIGHER • CONDITIONS FOR THREE HOURS OR MORE • EVENT WITHIN 12 HOURS ISSUE A WARNING • 12-48 HOURS ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH • ISSUED THROUGH GFE

27. CRITERIA FOR RFW DURING LEAF-OUT • EIGHT STRAIGHT DAYS OF NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL (.25 INCHES) • WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY SAME AS BEFORE • KETCHUM DROUGHT INDEX > 300 • http://www.fs.fed.us/land/wfas/kbdi.gif

28. ELEVATED FIRE AWARENESS • CLOSE TO BUT NOT MEETING RED FLAG WARNING/WATCH CRITERIA • TWO OUT OF THREE FACTORS MET • COULD INCLUDE HIGH HAINES INDEX (6) • ADDRESS THROUGH THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO)

29. IF WE ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH, RED FLAG WARNING OR AN ELEVATED FIRE AWARENESS IT WILL AUTOMATICALLY SHOW UP ON OUR THE MAP OF OUR HOME PAGE!

31. SPOT FORECAST REQUEST • ISSUE ONLY WHEN GOVERNMENT AGENCY REQUESTS (DEPT OF FORESTRY) • GO TO OUR INTERNET SITE AND PULL RIGHT UP • CLICK UNDER FIRE AND RIGHT THERE AT THE TOP OF THE PAGE • KEETCHUM DROUGHT UPDATE AND LOTS OF FIRE WEATHER INFO THERE • A SPECIAL THANKS TO INGRID FOR HER HARD WORK!

32. OPEN FORUM • FIRE WEATHER AFD • FORMAT (KNOTS/MPH) • UPDATE FWF CRITERIA • DSI EVEN USEFUL? • OPERATIONAL INPUT • 800-239-2123 • OTHER ISSUES

33. PLEASE SEND ALL COMMENTS TO ME Hugh.W. Johnson@noaa.gov 518-435-9581 800-239-2123

34. WRAP-UP • GAVE OUT FORM • ON THE INTERNET • REPORT CARD ON HOW WE ARE DOING • PLEASE LEAVE ME YOUR PHONE NUMBER AND EMAIL ADDRESS • THANKS FOR ATTENDING

35. POSSIBLE FALL DATE HOW ABOUT DOING IT AGAIN IN THE FALL? TO SEE HOW WE DID!