Voter Turnout

1. Voter Turnout POLS 125: Political Parties & Elections “A citizen of America will cross the ocean to fight for democracy, but won't cross the street to vote in a national election.” — Bill Vaughan

2. Voter Turnout in 2008 In November 2008, 131 million votes were cast for president. Is that number high or low? It depends on how turnout is measured…

3. How Should We Measure Turnout? Turnout statistics can use any of three denominators: • The voting-age population (VAP) includes non-citizens and felons who are ineligible to vote, and excludes expatriate citizens who could legally vote overseas. VAP estimates provide the lowest turnout levels because they underestimate actual turnout. • The voting-eligible population (VEP) starts with the voting-age population, then subtracts disenfranchised felons and non-citizens, and adds citizens from overseas. VEP estimates of voting turnout are higher than VAP estimates. • The number of registered voters includes only those legally registered to vote. This provides the highest rate of voter turnout.

4. How Should We Measure Turnout? VAP 131 million votes cast = 57% voter turnout 231 million voting age citizens 131 million votes cast VEP = 62% voter turnout 213 million voting eligible citizens 131 million votes cast REG = 76% voter turnout 172 million registered voters Fraud?

5. If voter turnout is low, compared to what? • Compared to other countries • Compared to historic rates of voter turnout in the United States

6. Voter Turnout in the United States Compared to Other Countries Source: International IDEA, http://www.idea.int/vt/survey/

7. Voter Turnout in Presidential Elections, 1828-2008

8. Voter Turnout in Presidential Elections, 1828-2008 The 26th Amendment grants 18-20 year olds the right to vote The 19th Amendment grants women the right to vote

9. Voter Turnout in Presidential Elections, 1828-2008

10. The Vanishing Voter Patterson calls declining voter turnout “the longest sustained downturn in American history.” What factors have caused it? • Generational replacement • Lack of competitive elections • Weakening party loyalty • Unsavory campaigns • Negative news

11. This is all the more disturbing because turnout should have increased… • Increasing educational attainment • Removal of poll taxes and literacy tests • Simplified registration procedures

12. Voter Turnout in Presidential Elections, 1828-2008

13. Increasing Voter Turnout • OPTION #1: Do nothing. Once we use the appropriate measure (e.g., VEP), there is no problem. • OPTION #2: Do nothing. Turnout may be low, but we don’t want uneducated, uninformed people voting anyway. • OPTION #3: Do nothing. Voter and non-voters have similar policy preferences, so it makes little difference • OPTION #4: Do something! • Voting by mail • Voting early • Internet voting • Election day registration

14. Does Low Voter Turnout Matter? • Smaller, more highly educated, less representative electorate? • Larger, less well educated, more representative electorate? Should we prefer a:

15. Increasing Voter Turnout • OPTION #1: Do nothing. Once we use the appropriate measure (e.g., VEP), there is no problem. • OPTION #2: Do nothing. Turnout may be low, but we don’t want uneducated, uninformed people voting anyway. • OPTION #3: Do nothing. Voter and non-voters have similar policy preferences, so it makes little difference • OPTION #4: Do something! • Voting by mail • Voting early • Internet voting • Election day registration

16. Mobilizing the Vote • Institutional context • Motor-Voter • Compulsory voting • Election Day registration • Voting by mail • Internet voting • Motivational strategies • Personal canvassing(messenger vs. message) • Social pressure • Enduring personal traits and psychological orientations • Socialization through programs such as Kids Voting USA

17. How Does Motor-Voter Work? Widely known as Motor-Voter, the National Voter Registration Act of 1993 is designed to encourage voter registration and to remove discriminatory and unfair obstacles to voter registration. As of January 1, 1995, the law requires states to register voters for federal elections in three specific ways, in addition to any other procedures they use currently for registering voters: • Simultaneous application for driver’s license and voter registration • Mail application for voter registration • Application in person at certain government agencies, including public assistance offices and agencies that provided services to people with disabilities

18. The Problem with Motor-Voter Voter Registration Voter Turnout Motivation and/or interest in politics

19. Mobilizing the Vote • Institutional context • Motor-Voter • Compulsory voting • Election Day registration • Voting by mail • Internet voting • Motivational strategies • Personal canvassing(messenger vs. message) • Social pressure • Enduring personal traits and psychological orientations • Socialization through programs such as Kids Voting USA

20. Close Elections Mean Turnout Matters • In 2000, George W. Bush won the state of Florida by just 537 votes (0.01%) • In Oregon, the presidential election that year was decided by 6,745 votes (0.44%) • In Iowa, by 4,144 votes (0.31%) • In Wisconsin, by 5,708 votes (0.22%) • In New Mexico, by 366 votes (0.06%)

21. Close Elections Mean Turnout Matters • In 2004, George W. Bush won Wisconsin by 11,384 votes (0.38%) • In New Hampshire, by 9,274 votes (1.37%) • In New Mexico, by 5,988 votes (0.79%) • In Iowa, by 10,059 votes (0.67%) Tight states in 2008: North Carolina, Indiana, Florida, Ohio

22. Voter Turnout as a Political Strategy With narrow margins of victory, and an electorate split evenly down the middle, political parties increasingly battle over voter turnout.

23. The Debate over Voter ID

25. Help America Vote Act (2002) HAVA requires any voter who registered by mail and who has not previously voted in a federal election to show current and valid photo identification or a copy of a current utility bill, bank statement, government check, paycheck, or other government document that shows the name and address of the voter. Voters who submitted any of these forms of identification during registration are exempt, as are voters entitled to vote by absentee ballot under the Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act.

27. The statutes, as of August 2012, of the 50 U.S. states regarding the required or requested showing of ID at the polling place are as follows: Strict photo ID(voters must show photo ID at polling place or follow-up with election officials soon after the election if they fail to provide a photo ID when voting): Georgia, Indiana, Kansas, Pennsylvania and Tennessee. In addition, Mississippi and South Carolina have strict photo ID laws that must receive, but have not received, approval from the U.S. Justice Department; pending such approval, they all require non-photo ID, except for Mississippi which has no other voter ID law on the books. Photo ID or alternative(voters at polling place must either show photo ID or meet another state-specific requirements, such as answering personal questions correctly or being vouched for by another voter or poll worker(s) who has a voter ID): Florida, Hawaii, Idaho, Louisiana, Michigan and South Dakota. New Hampshire also has one of these laws, but it requires pre-approval from the U.S. Justice Department first. Non-photo ID(state-specific list of acceptable forms of polling place ID, including a non-photo form): Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Kentucky, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Washington. Arizona, Ohio and Virginia also have strict, after election follow-up rules for voters that fail to provide the required voter ID when voting at a polling place. Alabama has a newer photo ID law that is scheduled to take effect in 2014, if it gets pre-approval from the U.S. Justice Department. No ID required at polling place: all other states not noted above.

29. How common is vote fraud?

30. Vote Suppression • Ballot and machine shortages on Election Day in selected precincts. • Delays in sending absentee ballots. • Vote challenges. • Disqualification of provisional ballots. • Purges of voter registration lists (e.g., voter caging). • Misdirection of voters to polling places. • Negative advertising designed to undermine morale.