Voter Turnout and Voting Behavior

1. Voter Turnout and Voting Behavior GOVT 2305

2. Previously we discussed democracy, elections and the right to vote in the United States.But having the right to vote is one thing. Choosing to exercise it is another, and how people choose to exercise it is still another.

3. In this section we look at those two issues. First, the decision to vote: which we refer to as voter turnout. Click here for another description of voter turnout. Second, the decision who to vote for: which we refer to as voter behavior.

4. Before we go too further, lets discuss The Paradox of Voting. It is simply not rational for people to vote, if one expects their vote to determine the outcome an election. This is especially true for presidential races. We are probably all familiar with people who say their vote doesn’t count, and they are right. And this is a fundamental problem for a democratic republic.

5. As we already know, a stable republic must rest on a rational population, but if voting is an irrational act, there is little reason to expect that a republic can be maintained. This is a fundamental dilemma in democratic republics.

6. Keep this in the back of your mind as we go forward. Despite the fact that a participatory public has been judged essential to the preservation of a republic, the act of voting is a bit irrational. There’s very little chance that one vote will change the outcome of any election. So why do it? People do though, so we will try to determine why. And when they do, people tend to find shortcut methods for figuring out who to vote for. We will look through these and also how the public has voted in recent years.

7. But this line of reasoning only works if one thinks that voting is only about determining who wins. Voting can also be a reflection of a group’s strength. It may demonstrate the ability of a group to hold elected representatives accountable if they pass laws they oppose. But these threats only work if they are backed up.

8. This makes voting rational after all. Political strength depends on who votes, specifically which groups tend to vote, and vote in all elections, including primary elections. This helps explain why certain policies tend to be prioritized more than others.

9. For example: It’s much easier to cut spending on education than Social Security. Why? Because older folks votes at far higher rates than younger folks, this includes primary elections which tend to be low turnout. In 2012 general election turnout for those over 65 was 73%, for those 18-24 it was 41%. This means that the older population has a better ability to punish officeholders that vote against their interests than the younger population.

10. The concept of primarying - or getting primaried – is based on this ability. A small active cohesive group promises to run opponents to incumbents in primaries if they do not vote in line with that group’s interests. Here are related stories:- Conservative Group Gets Jump On 'Primarying' Republicans In 2014- Gun Owners of America Is 'Primarying' the NRA From the Right- Pro-Legalization Congressional Candidate Primarying a Democrat in El Paso

11. And . . . Primary My Congressman!

12. Office holders take this into consideration when they vote.Can the affected group hurt me electorally?This suddenly makes voting – as a group anyway – very rational.

13. Here’s a recent example as of this writing: Despite the fact that 90% of the population stated support for universal background checks for gun purchases, it was defeated. The reason was that gun rights supporters have demonstrated over time that they are very active electorally and vote as blocs. They can successfully punish officeholders, and have done so in the past. Current officeholders know this and act accordingly.

14. So understanding voter turnout helps us understand which groups in the US have political power and which do not. Think of turnout as muscle.Remember that democracy can be better understood not as rule by the people, but by rule of the participants – the electorate.

15. Let’s look at the first question: Who Votes? And then at disparities that exist within the US population regarding who votes.

16. First, some specifics on voter turnout.Simply stated, voter turnout refers to the percentage of the population that votes. There two ways to look at this figure, VAP and VEP.

17. VAP: Voting Age PopulationVEP: Voting Eligible Population

18. Another way to look at turnout as a percentage of those who have registered to vote.Some argue that the key to increasing voter turnout is to make ti easier for people to register to vote.

19. Next: Why does voting turnout matter? Because it is assumed to reflect the health of our democratic republic. The more people vote, the stronger the republic, the less they vote, the weaker the republic. Here’s a look at voter turnout over American history.

20. But then again, this is a debatable point. Do people vote because they feel disconnected, or because they are generally satisfied? Click here for an informal list of the different factors which are argued to lead people to vote. These are listed on the next slide:

21. - A key issue is at stake- Barriers to voting were low- People were mobilized - A personal contact asked them to- One is from a politically inclined family- People are educated- They believe their vote counts

22. Let’s think about this after looking at the following graph, which shows turnout for eligible voters over time

24. Keep in mind as you look at this graph that suffrage expanded over the course of American history, as did laws related to elections. This reflects different stages of American political history.

25. 1788 – 1824: Era of elite politics. 1828 – 1900: Era of machine politics1900 – present: Progressive Era and its aftermath.

26. Note that turnout for presidential elections is different – generally higher - than turnout for midterm elections. It should also be pointed out that turnout for national elections tends to be higher than turnout for state elections, and turnout for state elections tends to be higher than that of local elections. And turnout in general elections tends to be higher than turnout in primary elections.

27. Note: It is significant to note which elections tend to be low turnout. This means that smaller groups are able to determine results in low turnout elections, most importantly primaries where turnout is sometimes in the single digits. This is especially true when that group is cohesive, passionate and works as single group rather than single discreet individuals.

28. The Tea Party for example.What they lack in numbers they make up in cohesion and action.

29. Turnout tends to vary from state to state. Click here for a chart with turnout figures for each state for the 2012 election. Texas is towards the bottom of the pack: 49.7%. Try to figure out why. Think demographics.

31. And turnout also varies within the population. Differences exist between various groups based on income, education, race and age.

32. Here’s a graph which outlines a variety of differences in turnout.

33. From Daily Infographic

34. And a few others which focus on specific differences in turnout.Let’s start with race:

35. From The Pew Research Center.

36. In 2012 – for the first time – Black turnout surpassed White turnout 66.2% to 64.1%.Question: Will this persist after the Obama presidency is over?

37. The continued low participation rates of Latinos and Asians bothers the leaders of those two communities. The projected growth of the Latino community suggests that that group is poised to exert considerable political muscle, but only if it begins to turnout in large numbers. As of 2012 they are 17.2% of the population, but only comprised about 12% of the 2012 electorate.

38. From the Pew Research Hispanic Center

39. And now age . . .

41. . . . And a combination of age and education . . .

43. Generally voter participation increases with age and education.This tells us something about which groups are politically strong and why. Social Security has stronger support in Congress than college grants and loans for the obvious – self interested – reason.

44. Here’s a look at the nature of turnout right now:

45. The US Census Bureau has comprehensive info about voting and registration here.

46. For an analysis of the 2012 turnout, click here. And for a full report from the Census Bureau, click here.A few tables from the article

49. From Pew Research Center: Who Votes, Who Doesn't, and Why

50. Turnout around the world