The future of GODAE activities through the IOC

1. The future ofGODAEactivitiesthrough the IOC Albert Fischer IGST, St John’s NL, Canada, 7-9 August 2007

2. What is the IOC? • forum for governmental coordination of marine science and marine observations • 130 Member States • UN focal point for marine science • Programs funded both by UNESCO allocation and Member State donations for specific activities

3. IOC Programmatic areas • Ocean observations and services • GOOS, JCOMM, IODE • Natural hazard warning systems (including tsunami) • coordination of observing systems • Ocean sciences • coordination of scientific research for harmful algal blooms, coral reefs, in support of integrated coastal area management • coordination of ocean carbon observations • sponsor of the WCRP, GCOS, GLOBEC • Capacity building GCOS-GOOS-WCRP Ocean Observations Panel for Climate http://ioc.unesco.org/oopc/

4. Continuation of GODAE activities post-2008 • JCOMM taking on coordination of the operational legacy of GODAE (how explicitly should this be tied in with other WMO and IOC activities?) • Clear need to continue research and development activities in ocean forecasting • community that will continue to exist in some form • coastal forecasting and ecosystems forecasting already identified as priorities • CEOS expressed support for a GODAE follow-on

5. Adopted priorities for IOC Ocean Sciencesfor 2008-2013, from the June 2007 IOC Assembly • The role of the ocean in climate variability and climate change, and their impacts on the marine environment and on its living resources and ecosystems • Coastal research as a primary element, including: climate impacts, direct human influences on coastal-ocean functioning and ecosystem health, integrated coastal management, natural marine hazards, and forecasting, • Science and modelling for the prevention and reduction of the impacts of natural hazards, including tsunamis, • Marine assessment as a primary element, with emphasis on the science that will underpin the Regular Process for GRAME, and its Assessment of Assessments, • Marine Modelling as a basic and cross-cutting element of IOC programmes;

6. “Working Group on Marine Modeling” • Advisory group to Ocean Sciences section (chaired by N. Smith) suggested:“Introduction of an underpinning, cross-cutting element in marine modeling, recognizing the need for IOC to exercise its mandate and responsibility in new technology and its unique position which allows it to facilitate interaction and coordination among many existing activities.” • approved by the IOC Assembly (June 2007) as a part of the short- and medium-term program of the IOC.

7. Advisory group suggestion • Vision: the primary forum for coordination of marine modeling and its application • Proposed Scope • coastal ocean modeling • ecosystems modeling - interdisciplinary focus • supporting ocean data assimilation and prediction • coupling (air-sea; intra-ocean) • Coordination of the research that will eventually lead to operational tools • “The ocean equivalent to WGNE”

8. Scoping exercise • Develop a description of activities that would be coordinated and led through such a group - networking and coordination • Eventually develop Terms of Reference for a scientific group • Relationship to other efforts - avoiding duplication but also finding common ground • Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WCRP/CAS) • CLIVAR Global Synthesis and Observations Panel (GSOP) and Working Group on Seasonal-Interannual Prediction (WGSIP) • Research programs: IMBER in particular, GLOBEC, other SCOR and IGBP groups • Regional efforts

9. Scoping exercise (cont’d) • Potential sponsors for program activities • CEOS/space agencies • NSF, others • Suggested streams of GODAE future research (assimilation/forecasting for coastal, ecosystems) are only one part of this activity • would GODAE-type R&D benefit from being a part of a larger enterprise? • would GODAE be too diluted in such a framework? • what are the most important links to forge? • how this concept might take life? • Realistic