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NATURAL GAS SCENARIOS

NATURAL GAS SCENARIOS. GLOBAL & DOMESTIC. ENERGY ERAS 19 th CENTURY - COAL. th. 20. CENTURY - OIL. 21 ST CENTURY - GAS 2. ORGANISATION OF HYDROCARBON SECTOR LPG ATF KEROSENE MOTOR GASOLINE. DIESEL NAPHTHA Heavier fractions including Bitumen. REFINERY IOCL/BPCL/HPCL/.

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NATURAL GAS SCENARIOS

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  1. NATURAL GAS SCENARIOS GLOBAL & DOMESTIC

  2. ENERGY ERAS 19th CENTURY - COAL th 20 CENTURY - OIL 21ST CENTURY - GAS 2

  3. ORGANISATION OF HYDROCARBON SECTOR LPG ATF KEROSENE MOTOR GASOLINE DIESEL NAPHTHA Heavier fractions including Bitumen REFINERY IOCL/BPCL/HPCL/ RPL/OTHERS END USER POWER FERTILIZER PETROCHEMICALS STEEL TRANSMISSION, DISTRIBUTION AND EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION INDUSTRIES DOMESTIC CITY TRANSPORT MARKETING GAIL/JVs/GSPL/AGCL ONGC OIL JVs Gas Processing LPG, PETROCHEMICALS ONGC/GAIL/OIL/IPCL

  4. GLOBAL & INDIAN ENERGY SCENARIO INDIA – A FAST GROWING ENERGY MARKET Source : BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2007

  5. PIPELINE VS. LNG TRADE - WORLD WIDE Unit : BCM 600 549.67 532.65 537.06 500 400 300 200 226.41 211.08 188.81 100 0 2005 2006 2007 World Pipeline World LNG In 2007 total gas trade in the world was 776 bcm of which LNG share was 29%. Source : BP Statistical Review

  6. INDIAN : GAS CONSUMPTION Unit : BCM 44 45 40 40.2 37.3 35.7 35 30 25 20 15 10 10.8 9.98 7.99 6.04 5 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 Consumption LNG Import In 2007 total gas consumption in India was 40.2 bcm out of which 24% (9.98 BCM) gas supply was met through LNG import only. Source : BP Statistical Review

  7. CONSUMPTION PATTERN - INDIA 2007-8 (37 BCM/102 MMSCMD) 2000 (22 BCM/ 60 MMSCMD) 13% 6% 40% 6% 1% 5% 3% 5% 38% 4% 5% 4% 40% 30% Power Fertiliser LPG+ Other Liquid HC Petrochem +Refineries City Gas/CNG Steel Others POWER AND FERTILISER - ANCHOR MARKETS INDUSTRIAL AND CITY GAS - GROWING MARKETS

  8. CURRENT SCENARIO [MMSCMD]

  9. GAIL’S- EXISTING P/L INFRASTRUCTURE

  10. LANDFALL PRICES - INDIA Prices are exclusive to Transportation Charges, Marketing Margin, Taxes, Duties etc. APM price includes royality. Exchange rate is taken @ 41.

  11. GAS DEMAND OUTLOOK - PROJECTION XI PLAN MMSCMD

  12. DEMAND ESTIMATE (2007-12) 140 126.6 Power Industrial Fertiliser City Gas 114.2 120 100 102.7 91.2 79.4 79.7 79.4 60.8 80 MMSCM 53.1 60 56.8 48.6 46.4 52.2 40.8 42.7 40 12.9 15.8 14.8 20 0 13.8 12.1 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 279 Total 179 197 226 262 As per XIth 5 Year Plan CAGR Power – 11 %, Fert-17%, City Gas-7%

  13. INFRASTRUCTURE – EXISTING & FUTURE NANGAL BHATINDA DELHI BAREILLY GURGAUN AURAIYA LUCKNOW JAGDISHPUR KANPUR PHOOLPUR DISPUR MATHANIA AGRA GWALIOR BARMER DAHEJ I & II 10 mmtpa* PATNA KOTA JHANSI UJJAIN VIJAYPUR BHOPAL GAYA BOKARO VARANASI AGARTALA RAJKOT AHMEDABAD BARODA SURAT LNG KOLKATA DAMRA HAZIRA 2.5 mmtpa CUTTACK BHARUCH Existing Upcoming BHUBANESHWAR MUMBAI PUNE KRISHNAPATNAM Transmission Pipelines Existing GAIL’s Planned Pipeline RAJAMUNDRY KAKINADA HYDERABAD VIJAYAWADA SOLAPUR DABHOL 5 mmtpa KOLHAPUR GOA NELLORE CHENNAI RIL’s East West Pipeline RIL’s Planned Pipeline GSPC’s Planned Pipeline City Gas/ CNG ENNORE 2.5 mmtpa BANGALORE HASAN MANGALORE MANGALORE 2.5 mmtpa TIRUCHCHIRAPALLI KANJIKKOD Existing COIMBATORE Planned LNG Terminal KOCHI 5 mmtpa TUTICORIN INTEGRATED GRID TO LINK ANY SOURCE TO ANY MARKET

  14. GAS SUPPLY AUGMENTATION TURKMENISTAN DAHEJ I & II 10 mmtpa* IRAN HAZIRA 2.5 mmtpa Existing LNG Terminals • Dahej (5 to 10 MMTPA) • Hazira (2.5 MMTPA) Upcoming LNG Terminals • Dhabol (5 MMTPA) • Kochi (2.5 MMTPA) Cross Border Pipelines • Iran-Pakistan-India • Turkmenistan- DAHEJ HAZIRA Afghanistan-Pakistan- India Coal Bed Methane • 3.78 BCM (10 MMSCMD) DABHOL DABHOL 5 mmtpa NEW GAS DISCOVERIES LNG TERM’s- Upcoming of CBM is expected to be KOCHI LNG TERM’s- Existing produced in the XIth plan. 2.5 mmtpa TRANS – NATIONAL P/L KOCHI

  15. NEW SIGNIFICANT DISCOVERIES 20 Oil+Gas 16 12 8 4 0 Discoveries / Year Delhi 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 Rajasthan Basin Kolkotta RJ-ON-90/1 Cairn(Barmer Block) Mahanadi (RIL/ONGC) Mumbai CB-0S/2 (CAIRN) Gujarat Block KG-DWN-98/3 (RIL) CB-0NN-2000/2 (NIKO)Western Offshore Source: DGH

  16. GAIL – GAS BUSINESS

  17. GAIL’s Sourcing &Trading Availability ONGCL+OIL PMT RIL GSPC LNG Dahej LNG Dabhol LNG Kochi PLL Spot 51 9.8 10 0 17 10.5 0 1.8 ONGCL+OIL PMT RIL GSPC LNG Dahej LNG Dabhol* LNG Kochi LNG Dahej Spot 56 15 60 0 28 10.5 0 5.4 2009 2010 Shell/Cairn/NELP Details 9 (2/2/5) Focus 1 Shell/Cairn/NELP Focus 15 (5/5/5) 1 Total 111.1 MMSCMD Total 198.4 * Subject to 5 MMTPA LNG sourced at Dabhol by BD and Dabhol-Bangalore p/l being ready by 2009-10

  18. GAIL’s Sourcing &Trading Availability ONGCL+OIL PMT RIL GSPC LNG Dahej LNG Dabhol LNG Kochi PLL Spot Shell/Cairn/NELP Focus Total 76 9.8 10 5 19 10.5 9 1.8 10 (2/3/5) 5 157.1 DETAILS ONGCL+OIL PMT RIL GSPC LNG Dahej LNG Dabhol LNG Kochi LNG Dahej Spot Shell/Cairn/NELP Focus Total 82 15 80 54 36 18 9 5.4 20 (9/5/6) 5 325 2011 2012 MMSCMD

  19. GAS MARKETERS-INDUSTRY SHARE ONGC 1% OIL 5% GAIL 49% SHELL 1% NIKO 4% CAIRN 3% IOC 7% BPCL 3% JV 6% IOCL 6% BPC 3% RIL, GSPCL, PMT, JV,Pvt, etc 38% Shell 4% GAIL 70% 2006 2010

  20. GAIL’s Transmission Availability MMSCMD ONGCL+OIL PMT RIL GSPC LNG Dahej LNG Dabhol LNG Kochi PLL Spot Shell/Cairn/NELP Focus Total 51 11.3 45 0 28 10.5 0 5.4 9 (2/2/5) 1 161.2 ONGCL+OIL PMT RIL GSPC LNG Dahej LNG Dabhol * LNG Kochi LNG Dahej Spot Shell/Cairn/NELP Focus Total 56 15 60 0 28 18 0 5.4 15 (5/5/5) 1 198.4 2009 2010 * Subject to LNG Sourced by ISG group and Dabhol-Bangalore p/l being ready

  21. MMSCMD GAIL’s Transmission Availability ONGCL+OIL PMT RIL GSPC LNG Dahej LNG Dabhol LNG Kochi PLL Spot Shell/Cairn/NELP Focus Total 76 11.3 65 10 36 10.5 9 5.4 11 (2/3/6) 5 241.2 ONGCL+OIL PMT RIL GSPC LNG Dahej LNG Dabhol LNG Kochi PLL Spot Shell/Cairn/NELP Focus Total 82 15 80 54 36 18 9 5.4 18 (5/6/7) 5 315 2011 2012

  22. DEREGULATION - THE IMPENDING CHANGES NATURAL GAS PRICES TO BE BROUGHT IN LINE WITH INTERNATIONAL FUEL OIL PARITY PRICES IN STEPS INTRODUCTION OF OPEN ACCESS PRINCIPLE FIXATION OF TRANSPORTATION TARIFF UNBUNDLING OF MARKETING AND TRANSPORTATION CATALYST FOR ATTRACTING INVESTMENT FOR INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT

  23. OPPORTUNITIES • Large gas finds from domestic sources like RIL/GSPC/ONGC • High growth trajectory projected across sectors Core sectors aggressive on shifting to Natural Gas Emerging opportunities in City Gas & industrial clusters • Acceptance of Market Driven Prices • Connecting emerging Sources to Markets

  24. CHALLENGES • As a Marketer Efforts to retain market share (% terms) in multiple marketer scenario Declining output from key ONGCL assets Producers preferring to market their own gas • As a Transporter… Capacity Utilisation of existing and new networks Timely creation of pipeline infrastructure by 2011-12 • Ensuring sufficient rich gas for processing plants Depleting existing sources New Sources are lean

  25. THANK YOU

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