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History of GFDL hurricane group and highlights of its research. Robert E. Tuleya (GFDL retired & CCPO/ODU). May 2, 2017 GFDL Hurricane Symposium. Tropical cyclone model vs. Extra-tropical/global model during dawn of numerical weather prediction and simulation.
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History of GFDL hurricane group and highlights of its research Robert E. Tuleya (GFDL retired & CCPO/ODU) May 2, 2017 GFDL Hurricane Symposium
Tropical cyclone model vs. Extra-tropical/global modelduring dawn of numerical weather prediction and simulation Specifically for tropical cyclone Locally forced (latent heating) Limited data available in tropics over oceans Spans scales from cumulus through synoptic Variety of wx systems (fronts, cyclones, etc) Linear instability (baroclinic, barotropic) Relevant data more available Cumulus scale less important
Y. Kurihara with GFDL’s Founder Joe Smagorinsky “This is to reaffirm our telephone conversation of about a week ago on the above subject and to add some details. Starting FY71, Dr. Yoshio Kurihara will be spending full time on the hurricane genesis/propagation problem…..” Joseph Smagorinsky to Robert White (ESSA head) … 7/1/1970
Development of Box Method (1967,MWR) the sole surviving a-grid model !??
A different erauni programing, card decks, magnetic tapes, no computer graphics,even before TRS-80! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_programming_in_the_punched_card_era
CHRONOLOGY of HURRICANE MODELING at GFDL 1995 1986 2000 1970 1990 1980 Hurricane Project established Movable Nested Mesh Model Conversion Work started GFDL Hurricane PredictionSystem adopted by NOAA & NAVY Upgrade Model, Climate Studies based onKuri’s talk at 50th GFDL anniversary
GFDL nested model GFDL hurricane model becomes operational 1st 3D Hurricane model R30L18 T126L18 T170L42 T574L64 Operational GFS model resolution ---> 70km 38km 23km
Early 3-D hurricane models NHRL(HRD)Anthes, Rosenthal, Trout, 1971 GFDL Kurihara, Y., and R. E. Tuleya, 1974 Evolved into MM5 model 3-D model on stretched grid
TC genesis-impact of environmentKurihara, Y., and R. E. Tuleya, 1981, MWR Tuleya and Kurihara, 1981, MWR Preference for easterly vertical shear Wave TC Effect of shear
Nested Grid System(an impressive scientific tool !)Kurihara, Y., G. Tripoli and M. Bender, 1979, MWR
Impacts on and by TCBender,M.A, R.E. Tuleya and Y. Kurihara,1987,MWRRoss, R. J., and Y. Kurihara, 1995,MWR with without Topographical impact TC’s impact on coastal front
Asymmetries & relative flow Hurricane Landfallimpact of beta effect reduction of surface evaporationTuleya, Bender, Kurihara, MWR, 1984Bender (JAS,1997) Tuleya (MWR, 1994)
Effect of stability… vertical shearShen, Tuleya, and Ginis 2000, J.Clim.Tuleya, Bender, Knutson, Siurtis, B Thomas, and I Ginis, JAS (2016) Slight preference for easterly vertical shear for weak initial systems ‘. Preference as easterly shear increases for robust initial systems due to ocean coupling
Other Research • Time differencing scheme (Tripoli) • Lateral boundary conditions • Convective adjustment scheme • Idealized & model spiral band analyses • Vortex specification • Hurricane eye • Rainfall evaluation • Ocean interaction (Ginis) • Hurricane & Climate(Knutson)
Development of Operational System(includes vortex initialization, boundary conditions, & model)Bender, Ross, Tuleya and Kurihara, 1993, MWRKurihara, Y., R. E. Tuleya, and M.A. Bender, 1998 , MWR Improved initial condition Gloria (1985) 1st real data case by nested hurricane model
Jerry Mahlman director during operational implementation of GFDL Hurricane Model GFDL Science and Athletics J.Mahlman to W. Bonner,NMC, 7/16/86
Issues in model development and transitions to operations • Morris very enthusiastic and focused • Thank You Chris Kerr Biju Thomas and Matt Morin • Roadblocks to progress comes from unexpected sources
Where do we (you) go from here?? • Transition to HWRF complete • Impact of HFIP & FV3 • Impact of assimilating more storm data • Deterministic vs Probabilistic intensity forecasts • Global vs Regional Models