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2005 GFDL HURRICANE PREDICTION SYSTEM

Forecast Errors for the GFS, GFDL and the Official Forecast Since 1995 in the Atlantic. Track Verifications for the 2003-2004 Seasons The GFDL Was Most Reliable Model for Track Error In Both Basins Over the Past 2 Seasons. 2004 Track Verifications for the Global Models in the Western Pacific. Intensity Verifications for 2003

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2005 GFDL HURRICANE PREDICTION SYSTEM

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    1. 2005 GFDL HURRICANE PREDICTION SYSTEM Morris Bender, Timothy Marchok (GFDL) Outside Collaborators: Isaac Ginis, Biju Thomas, Il-Ju Moon (URI) Robert Tuleya, Aleksandr Falkovich, Naomi Surgi (NCEP) Richard Pasch (TPC/ NHC)

    3. Track Verifications for the 2003-2004 Seasons The GFDL Was Most Reliable Model for Track Error In Both Basins Over the Past 2 Seasons

    4. 2004 Track Verifications for the Global Models in the Western Pacific

    5. Intensity Verifications for 2003 & 2004 Seasons Skill Comparable to Statistical Intensity Model

    6. Changes Proposed for 2005 Implementation

    7. Improved Pressure Wind Relationship

    8. Improved Forecasts of Landfall

    9. Reduction of North Bias in Western Atlantic

    10. TRACK VERIFICATIONS: 2004 vs. 2005 MODELS OVERALL REDUCTION IN TRACK ERROR WITH PROPOSED UPGRADES (~10% AT 3-5 DAYS)

    11. INTENSITY VERIFICATIONS: 2004 VS. 2005 MODELS IMPROVED SKILL AT 3-5 DAYS

    12. OVER-DEVELOPMENT IN SHEARED CONDITIONS REMAINS

    13. Possible GFDL Model Upgrades For 2006 Continue development of High-resolution GFDL model with Ferrier Bulk Microphysics. (NCEP/GFDL Collaboration) Continue development of GFDL Coupled System with NOAH Land Model (NCEP) Development of New Vortex Initialization Technique. (GFDL/NCEP) 4. Development of a High-resolution Hurricane-Wave-Ocean coupled model (URI/NCEP/GFDL)

    14. GFDL Hurricane Model Research Team Will be Actively Involved in Transition to Hurricane WRF

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