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Closing the Gaps, by 2015 Goal and Target Review. April 21, 2005. Why Change the Participation Goal and Targets?. Apply current percentage targets to updated population projections 2005 target for African-Americans and 2010 target for Whites have been surpassed. Prior Projection
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Closing the Gaps, by 2015Goal and Target Review April 21, 2005 THECB 04/2005
Why Change the Participation Goal and Targets? • Apply current percentage targets to updated population projections • 2005 target for African-Americans and 2010 target for Whites have been surpassed THECB 04/2005
Prior Projection 25,900,000 11,600,000 2,900,000 10,300,000 New Projection 28,000,000 11,800,000 3,000,000 11,900,000 Population projections for 2015 have increased greatly for Hispanics Total White African-Amer. Hispanic THECB 04/2005 Source: Texas State Data Center
How did the Board set the Participation Goal? • Texas demographics • Educational attainment and income • Population projections by ethnicity • Comparisons of participation rates • As a percent of total population • As a percent of 19 year olds, etc. • Participation rates by ethnicity in Texas THECB 04/2005
Income is Strongly Correlated to Educational Levels THECB 04/2005 Source: US Census 2000 Microdata Sample
Highest Educational Levels Vary Texas - 2000 THECB 04/2005 Source: US Census Bureau
Median Household Income Varies Across the State - 2002 High Plains Upper East Texas Northwest Texas Metroplex West Texas Upper Rio Grande Southeast Texas Central Texas Gulf Coast South Texas $26,500 to $31,500 $31,501 to $40,000 $40,001 to $44,000 THECB 04/2005 Source: US Census Bureau
Median Household Income - 1999 by Race/Ethnicity of Householder THECB 04/2005 Source: Texas State Data Center
Overall Minority Participation Rates Continue to Lag, But Are Increasing 15-to-34 Population THECB 04/2005
A one percent increase would have been an additional 220,000 students in fall 2003 Participation Rate of Total Population - Fall 2003(Fall 2000) New York Michigan California Illinois TEXAS Pennsylvania Ohio Florida New Jersey Georgia (5.6%) (5.6%) (6.1%) (6.1%) (5.0%) (4.9%) (4.8%) (4.5%) (4.0%) (4.1%) THECB 04/2005 Source: Chronicle of Higher Education, Almanac
Committee Questions • How have other states increased participation at such a fast pace? • Financial aid? • New programs? • Lower population increases? • Policy changes? • Should the overall participation target be raised above 5.7%? THECB 04/2005
Closing the Gaps Targets THECB 04/2005
Texas White 18-21 Population is expected to decline THECB 04/2005
Why Change Success Targets? • Independent institutions’ awards are now included • Associate’s degrees awarded have surpassed target • African-American successes in 2004 exceed 2005 targets • Allied health and nursing awards surpassed targets • Alternative teaching certification awards now included THECB 04/2005
Pennsylvania New York Ohio Michigan New Jersey U.S. Average Georgia Illinois TEXAS Florida California Texas Lags in Bachelor’s DegreesCompared to Undergraduate Enrollment Colleges and Universities – 2001-02 (1996-97) (13%) (12%) (11%) (9%) (9%) (9%) (11%) (8%) (8%) (8%) (6%) THECB 04/2005 Source: Chronicle of Higher Education, Almanac
Texas Lags in Associate Degrees as Compared to Two-Year Enrollment Two-Year Colleges – 2001-02 (1996-97) New York Pennsylvania Florida Ohio New Jersey U.S. Average Michigan Illinois Georgia TEXAS California (20%) (18%) (14%) (12%) (10%) (10%) (11%) (8%) (13%) (6%) (6%) THECB 04/2005 Source: Chronicle of Higher Education, Almanac
Committee Questions • Graduation rates for transfer students? • Need for certified teachers in specific fields? • Math and science • ESL • Increases at the BSN or ASN level? • Information on private high school graduates? THECB 04/2005
Community College transfer students graduate at rates similar to university students THECB 04/2005
Why Change Research targets? • Original target was based on 1998 data • 2015 target was surpassed by FY 2002 • Target expressed in monetary terms does not indicate whether Texas has increased relative to other states THECB 04/2005
1998 data was used to set target: By 2000 the 2007 target had been surpassed(in millions of constant 1998 dollars) THECB 04/2005
Committee Recommendation • April – June 2005 - Continue study of the targets • July 2005 – Draft of new targets to the Coordinating Board and distributed for comment • October 2005 – Coordinating Board consideration of new targets THECB 04/2005