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Sustaining Lakes in a Changing Environment - SLICE

Sustaining Lakes in a Changing Environment - SLICE. Outcomes of Drivers. More runoff – flow, sediment, nutrient loading (indicators) Longer growing seasons Warmer waters Wet-dry fluxes (evaporation & precip) Exotic species invasions. Result: Warmer, more productive waters. Resilient:

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Sustaining Lakes in a Changing Environment - SLICE

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  1. Sustaining Lakes in a Changing Environment - SLICE

  2. Outcomes of Drivers • More runoff – flow, sediment, nutrient loading (indicators) • Longer growing seasons • Warmer waters • Wet-dry fluxes (evaporation & precip) • Exotic species invasions Result: Warmer, more productive waters

  3. Resilient: turbid-water; no macrophytes Resilient: Clear-water; macrophytes Eutrophication Declining resiliency of clear-water regime Ecosystem State Scheffer and Carpenter 2003

  4. Need 1: monitoring stressors and habitat conditions

  5. Consequences on Fish

  6. 160 140 120 100 80 Fish-based IBI 60 40 20 0 25 35 45 55 65 75 Trophic state Fish & disturbance 140 120 100 Fish-based IBI 80 60 40 20 For > 60% For Ag & For Ag, For & Urban Ag Urban Drake and Valley 2005

  7. Need 2: Monitoring fish population and community indicators

  8. Need 3: Going beyond documenting the decline Predictive modeling of consequences of alternative scenarios on habitat and fish

  9. Strategy to meet “needs” • A focus on adaptation and mitigation strategies • Designing a collaborative long-term monitoring program (SLICE) • 4-yr pilot to: • Identify sensitive habitat and fish indicators • Identify important stressor-habitat-fish links and mechanisms • Build partnerships

  10. Sentinel Lakes Pilot - Objectives • Retrospective analysis of fish and habitat “status” of 24 sentinel lakes • Simulation modeling to forecast outcomes of alternative climate and land use changes on fish habitat and fish • ID set of habitat and fish indicators most responsive to climate and land use change. • Design of SLICE (e.g., approp. Sampling frequency, split-panel design)

  11. Sentinel Lake Selection • Criteria: • Ecoregion (4) • Mixing Status (Stratified and Unstratified) • Total Phosphorus (Low, Med, High – Ecoregion specific) • Additional criteria inc. good historical data sets (e.g. PCA ref lakes, sediment cores, lake level monitoring), or partnership opportunities • Fisheries Area Workloads considered

  12. What we’re collecting… • Monthly water quality profiles (TP, TN, Chl a, ions, temp/DO - PCA) • Secchi & Lake level – Citizens • Monthly Zooplankton – PCA & DNR • Annual aquatic plant surveys – DNR • Annual fish surveys - DNR

  13. Split-Panel Design Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 = “Panel” or Group of Lakes

  14. Sentinel lakes • Monitoring will be intensive Split-Panel Design Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 = “Panel” or Group of Lakes

  15. Random surveys • To work into Fisheries Lake Survey Program • Monitoring fewer indicators in more lakes • Approach is “extensive” Split-Panel Design Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 = “Panel” or Group of Lakes

  16. How lake associations can get involved • CLMP • Lake level monitoring • Financing ongoing water chemistry testing (profiles) • Temp/DO monitoring • Shoreline development monitoring (protocols being developed by DNR)

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