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Allopatric speciation in a changing environment

Allopatric speciation in a changing environment. T. Janzen 1 , L.S. Molleman 2 , R.S.Etienne 1 1 Community and Conservation Ecology Group 2 Theoretical Biology. Picture courtesy Jen Reynolds. Allopatric speciation. Allopatric speciation. We are drifting apart!. Don’t be so selective!.

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Allopatric speciation in a changing environment

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  1. Allopatric speciation in a changing environment T. Janzen1, L.S. Molleman2, R.S.Etienne1 1Community and Conservation EcologyGroup 2TheoreticalBiology Picture courtesy Jen Reynolds

  2. Allopatric speciation

  3. Allopatric speciation We are drifting apart! Don’t be so selective!

  4. Allopatric speciation

  5. Changing environment

  6. Allopatric speciation

  7. Allopatric speciation

  8. Allopatric speciation and biodiversity • Species pump (Rossiter 1996) • Changing habitat sizes due to: • Temperature changes • Water level changes • Fragmentation of host species

  9. Anolis Anolis allisoni Anolis porcatus Glor et al. 2004 Proc. B.

  10. Example Anolis Glor et al. 2004 Proc. B.

  11. Eretmodini Ruberet al. 1999 PNAS

  12. Research question • Towhichextent does allopatricspeciationmediatedby a changing environment shapebiodiversity?

  13. Model

  14. Intermezzo! Approximate Bayesian Computation

  15. Why or when? • “normal” situation: • Tractable model • Deterministic outcome • Easy to calculate optimum (explicit likelihood) • “simulation” situation • High stochasticity • Hard to find optimal parameter combination • Brute force too much work • Impossible to calculate likelihood Hartig et al. 2011 Ecol. Let.

  16. ABC parameter estimation • Start with parameter combination A • Run simulations S with A + random noise (r) • if S(A+r) < ε • Store A+r • A = A + r • Go to 2. Hartig et al. 2011 Ecol. Let.

  17. Chosen summary statistic: LTT Sturmbauer et al. 2010

  18. ABC results

  19. Results: mode

  20. Results: best

  21. Conclusionandprospects • Allopatricspeciationthrough a changing environment canbe important in generatingbiodiversity • Expand the model by: • Using empirical water level change data • Addingdiversity dependent speciation • Implementing explicit population size • Adding multiple layers • Asymmetric pocket setup

  22. Thank you!

  23. Eretmoduscyanostictus Ruberet al. 1999

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