2007 Lake Area Business Conference Osage Beach March 7, 2007 Bill Elder, Director

1. 2007 Lake Area Business Conference Osage Beach March 7, 2007 Bill Elder, Director Office of Social & Economic Data Analysis University of Missouri--Columbia

2. Overview • Big Picture Trends (“constant bearing….decreasing range”) • Emerging Characteristics at the Lake • Demographic • Economic Trends • Discussion WWW.OSEDA.MISSOURI.EDU

5. Educational Testing Service

6. Divergent skill distributions • The changing economy • Demographic shifts

7. Divergent skill distributions • Flat NAEP scores • High school graduation slacking • Poor literacy and numeracy skills • Race and ethnic gaps

8. The changing economy • Declining manufacturing – more service • Two thirds of job growth (1984-2000 was associated with college-level jobs • College grads earn 51% more than H.S. grads • Earning premiums reward education & skill

9. Demographic shifts • Labor force will grow more slowly • Impact of the baby boom – its here now • Dependence on International migration • Increasing Hispanic population • Latino’s have lowest levels of educational attainment – more than 50% without H.S.

12. 2007 1999 2002

14. How f l a t the world is depends on where your standing.. • The World is Flat Thomas Friedman • Making Globalization Work Joseph Stiglitz

17. Total Population, 2000 Source of data: U.S. Bureau of the Census: FSCPE. Estimates released summer, 2006

18. Total Population, 2005 Source of data: U.S. Bureau of the Census: FSCPE. Estimates released summer, 2006

19. Change in Population, 2000-2005 Source of data: U.S. Bureau of the Census: FSCPE. Estimates released summer, 2006

20. Percent Change in Population, 2000-2005 Source of data: U.S. Bureau of the Census: FSCPE. Estimates released summer, 2006

34. SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) of the U.S. Department of Labor; MO Department of Economic Development, MERIC

35. SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) of the U.S. Department of Labor; MO Department of Economic Development, MERIC

36. Note **: Original report (Missouri Workforce Gap Analysis: Needs Assessment) by Diana Pearce, PhD with Jennifer Brooks, Dec. 15, 2004 SOURCE: Missouri Department of Economic Development, MERIC

37. Note **: Original report (Missouri Workforce Gap Analysis: Needs Assessment) by Diana Pearce, PhD with Jennifer Brooks, Dec. 15, 2004 SOURCE: Missouri Department of Economic Development, MERIC

38. Disposable Income 2005 SOURCE: Rand McNally Commercial Atlas and Marketing Guide, 2007

39. Total Retail Sales, 2005 and General Merchandise Sales SOURCE: Rand McNally Commercial Atlas and Marketing Guide, 2007

40. Total Retail Sales, 2005 and Apparel Stores Sales SOURCE: Rand McNally Commercial Atlas and Marketing Guide, 2007

41. Total Retail Sales, 2005 And Food Store Sales SOURCE: Rand McNally Commercial Atlas and Marketing Guide, 2007

42. Total Retail Sales , 2005 And Health and Drug Store Sales SOURCE: Rand McNally Commercial Atlas and Marketing Guide, 2007

43. Camden County, MO USDC, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System (REIS)

44. Laclede County, MO USDC, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System (REIS)

45. Miller County, MO USDC, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System (REIS)

46. Morgan County, MO USDC, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System (REIS)

47. Pulaski County, MO USDC, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System (REIS)

48. Lake of the Ozarks PUMA Region SOURCE: USDC, Bureau of the Census, American Community Survey (PUMS) 2005

49. Lake of the Ozarks PUMA Region Minutes Traveled to Work SOURCE: USDC, Bureau of the Census, American Community Survey (PUMS) 2005

50. Lake of the Ozarks PUMA Region Commuting to Work SOURCE: USDC, Bureau of the Census, American Community Survey (PUMS) 2005