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Predictability of cold spring seasons in Europe

Predictability of cold spring seasons in Europe. Mxolisi E. Shongwe, Christopher A. T. Ferro, Caio A. S. Coelho and Geert Jan van Oldenborgh. Outline. GCM skill in predicting MAM 2-m temperature in Europe Snow – 2-m temperature relationships Model representation of observed snow Summary.

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Predictability of cold spring seasons in Europe

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  1. Predictability of cold spring seasons in Europe Mxolisi E. Shongwe, Christopher A. T. Ferro, Caio A. S. Coelho and Geert Jan van Oldenborgh

  2. Outline • GCM skill in predicting MAM 2-m temperature in Europe • Snow – 2-m temperature relationships • Model representation of observed snow • Summary

  3. GCMs used

  4. Models • GCMs: Feb 1 analysis time (available Feb 15), Mar-May verification (mainly March) • Statistical model: Nov-Jan T2m, Feb 1 snow depth, ONC

  5. GCM ROC scores

  6. Brier skill scores

  7. Highlights • GCMs show good skill in predicting 2-m temperature in Central and Eastern Europe • Higher skill for cold `extremes’ • Skill surpasses that of statistical model based on persistence and snow depth

  8. No skill in SLP Maps directly from Climate Explorer climexp.knmi.nl

  9. 2-m temperature –Snow relationship Coldest 2-m temperature related to widespread snow in eastern Europe

  10. 2-m temperature –Snow relationship cont….

  11. Highlights • There is evidence of a lag relationship between snow and 2-m temperature in eastern Europe • Related to snow-hydrological and snow-energy effects.

  12. Model snow predictions

  13. Feb. snow variability

  14. Mar. snow variability

  15. Apr. snow variability

  16. Conclusion • There is potential to predict cold spring seasons in Europe, which is tied to accurate representation of snow processes in climate models.

  17. THE END Thank you for your attention!

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