Climate Change: Science and Solutions

1. Climate Change: Science and Solutions J.C. Moore PhD Retired Physical Chemist JCMooreonline.com CCL Credit: Mark Shobe and Darrel Hart

3. Earth’s Energy Balance

4. Arrhenius (1897) – Halving CO2 will lead to an ice age, doubling it will warm Earth by 4 to 7oC G.N. Plass (1956) - Doubling the amount of CO2 will raise Earth’s temperature by 3 to 4 oC J.T. Kiehl (1997) - Under Clear Skies, CO2 accounts for 26% of the Greenhouse Effect A. Lacis (2010) – CO2 accounts for about 25% of the Greenhouse Effect, CO2 is the “Control Knob” for the Earth’s Temperature Water vapor cannot control Earth’s temperature as it precipitates when the concentration gets too high CO2 and Climate

5. CO2 for Last 1000 Years

7. NASA Data

9. And 2015 was hotter yet.

10. Arctic Ice

13. Ice Volume Is More Important

14. Sea Level Rise

15. Ocean Acidification • We emit 30 billion tons of CO2 annually • The oceans takes up about 40% • CO2 in water makes carbonic acid • Oceans have become >20% more acidic • It is harder for phytoplankton, coral, and crustaceans to make shells • Phytoplankton support ocean life as they convert CO2 to O2

16. CO2 and Plants • Plants require water, CO2, nitrogen, phosphorous, potassium, sunlight, and trace elements • CO2 is seldom the limiting agent in plant growth • Greenhouses add CO2 just to replace depleted CO2 • Over-fertilizing, over-watering, or putting a shade plant in bright sun will harm the plant • More CO2 is not necessarily better in most cases

17. Increasing CO2 and Plants • Some plants will thrive – but not all • Ancient plant have adapted to varying levels of 180 ppm to 1000+ ppm • Modern plants have adapted to ~ 280 ppm • Wild plants will adapt faster - Kudzu, Poison Ivy, Ragweed, Red Rice, Weeds

18. Agricultural Plants • Wheat grown at higher CO2 levels produce more grains but smaller grains - lower in nitrogen • Wheat pasture is unaffected by higher CO2 levels if sufficient nitrogen is available • Otherwise, higher CO2 leads to lower nitrogen uptake and poorer pasture • Rice benefits from higher CO2 levels but produces less at higher temperatures • Rice production is declining in some parts of the world – it is a staple for > 50% of world • Higher temperatures and CO2 levels are not necessarily better for plants and may be detrimental

19. Temperature and Plants • Tomatoes will not set blossoms if night temperatures are above 70 0F • Fruit trees and other plants may blossom early – harmed by later freezes • Some fruit varieties require a number of days below freezing to be productive • Pests such as fleas, ticks, spider mites, mosquitoes, squash bugs, pine borers… thrive • Increase in pine borer populations have killed 30 billion trees • Many diseases thrive at higher temperatures

20. Future Food Production

21. Weather • “All weather events are affected by climate change because the environment in which they occur is warmer and moister than it used to be….  ”  – Kevin Trenberth • Global Warming may not be the “cause” of a weather event, but it increases the probability that it will be more severe • Warmer temperatures increase both the rate of evaporation and amount of moisture in the air. • This has doubled the incidence of severe weather, floods, droughts, and wildfires. • The interiors of continents are becoming drier and the coasts are experiencing more flooding

22. Munich Re Data

23. Scientific Consensus • The American Chemical Society states: “Careful and comprehensive scientific assessments have clearly demonstrated that the Earth’s climate system is changing rapidly in response to growing atmospheric burdens of greenhouse gases and absorbing aerosol particles. There is very little room for doubt that observed climate trends are due to human activities. The threats are serious and action is urgently needed to mitigate the risks of climate change. “ • Over 97% of the active climate scientists agree • All of the World’s major science societies have adopted similar statements.

24. Second Opinion

25. Coal Use

26. Coal • Coal is 65 to 95% carbon • Pollutants produced are mercury, • cadmium, arsenic, lead, • sulfur oxides, nitrogen oxides, CO2, • particulates, and radioactive isotopes of radon.

27. Coal • Impurities from coal combustion and the coal ash end up in the air and water • Toxic levels of mercury are now found in fish, even where natural sources are not available • We are now emitting 150 times as much CO2 as all the worlds volcanoes • Cutting Coal Use Is Imperative

28. Natural Gas is not a long term solution. • Heat of Combustion/Mole of CO2 • Coal (80%C) 314 kJ/mole • Methane 890 kJ/ mole • Methane produces about 2 1/2 times as much energy per mole of carbon dioxide produced • Methane burns much cleaner then coal • Methane has a Global Warming Potential that is 80 times that of carbon dioxide • If over 4% of the methane is lost during production and transmission, then there is no climate advantage of shifting to methane

29. Actions • Conservation • New Technology • IPCC – Switch to Renewables ASAP • Regulation • Cap and Trade • Carbon Tax • Carbon Fee and Dividend

30. New Technology • CFL and LED Bulbs • Solar Energy Collectors • Solar Panels • Wind Turbines • Tankless Water Heaters • Electric Cars and Trucks (Even if charged from a coal-fired power plant, they reduce carbon emissions by half. )

31. Republican Environmentalists • Teddy Roosevelt – Greatly expanded National Park System • Dwight Eisenhower -set aside 9 million acres as the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge - one of the most pristine wilderness areas in the United States • Richard Nixon - created the EPA - “Clean air, clean water, open spaces — these should once again be the birthright of every American.” “The price of economic growth need not and will not be deterioration in the quality of our lives and our surroundings.” • Barry Goldwater, “Mr. Conservative”,-“While I am a great believer in the free enterprise system and all that it entails, I am an even stronger believer in the right of our people to live in a clean and pollution-free environment.” • Ronald Reagan – Signed Montreal Protocol reducing CFC’s, Used cap-and- trade to reduce acid rain blowing into Canada- at less cost than even the government predicted • John McCain – Proposed a sound energy policy based on good stewardship, sound science, and reasonableness • Representative Chris Gibson (R-NY) -introduced H. Res. 424, a Republican Climate Resolution to address mitigation of global warming.

32. How can we address climate change? Darrel Hart, Mark Shobe

33. We lobby in support of a revenue neutral price on carbon, our Carbon Fee and Dividend legislation. We work to build political will through respectful interactions with elected officials, civic groups and the public. We support our claims with data from a study by Regional Economic Models Inc.

34. CCL’s legislative proposal would set an initial fee on carbon at $15 per ton of CO2 at the source. • The fee would increase by $10 each year until the CO2 emissions were reduced to 10% of the 1990 US levels. • To protect US businesses and agriculture, adjustments at the  borders would ensure fairness. Biofuels and livestock emissions are not subject to the fee.   • The carbon fees would be rebated 100% to American households. • Each adult would receive a dividend and each child half a dividend up to a limit of two children per household.

35. There are reduced CO2 emissions with Carbon Fee and Dividend. Blue - without a price on carbon Yellow - with price on carbon

36. Here are the cumulative lives saved by avoiding emissions if Carbon Fee and Dividend is passed.

37. Here is the annual additional GDP due to Carbon Fee and Dividend

38. These are the thousands of additional jobs created by Carbon Fee and Dividend compared to doing nothing.

39. There are always a few naysayers.

40. Carbon Fee and Dividend makes sense. > CO2 emissions decline 33% after 10 yrs, 52% after 20 yrs. >Lives saved - 13,000 yearly, 227,000 in 20 years >2.1 million more jobs after 10 yrs, 2.8 million after 20 yrs. >Monthly dividend, family of 4, yr 1= $30, yr 10 = $300 >2/3 of families will break even or make money on CF&D

41. The National Climate Assessment • states that “climate disruptions to agricultural production have increased in the past 40 years and are projected to increase over the next 25 years.” (http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/). • The USDA predicts in coming decades that droughts and floods—made more frequent and damaging from climate change—will reduce agricultural output. •    Fighting insects and weeds will become more difficult, and higher temperatures will also make the productivity of crops and livestock unpredictable. • Impacts include changing weather patterns, increases in frequency of extreme weather events, drought causing soil erosion due to loss of vegetative cover, floods, pests, invasive species, weeds, longer durations of triple-digit temperatures, insufficient rain or too much rainfall when needed least, heavy precipitation, then dry spells. • Agricultural field workers face increasing health risks due to heat stress.  

42. seeks to partner with the AFB to develop market-based policy/legislation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while benefiting agriculture. • creates opportunities for farmers to balance climate disruptions with steady cash flow from renewables such as windmills and solar gardens • Seeks to reduce stress on agriculture from global warming by reducing carbon emissions.

43. Lets clear up something Of the methods government can use to reduce CO2 emissions, Carbon Fee and Dividend is the nost desirable. Carbon Fee and Dividend – involves everyone, protects the vulnerable, is fair, works on every sector, cuts pollution fastest Cap and Trade - subject to market manipulation & exemptions, does not have a border adjustment, does not protect the public from energy price increase. It works, but slowly. Government Regulations - unpopular, subject to legal contests, works on specific items. Carbon Tax – taxes are not popular. “It’s not a tax if the government doesn’t keep the money.” – George Shultz, Former Secretary of State under President Reagan

44. You’re in good company. National Chapter: https://citizensclimatelobby.org/carbon-fee-and-dividend/ Wichita Chapter at: facebook.com/wichitaCCL Join us! Together we can build the political will for a livable planet.