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Climate Change Science, Causes and Impacts

Climate Change Science, Causes and Impacts. TACC Training Module 2. Objectives of the Module. Introduce scientific concepts and findings relevant for understanding climate change Highlight observed and projected impacts of climate change on natural and human systems

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Climate Change Science, Causes and Impacts

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  1. Climate Change Science, Causes and Impacts TACC Training Module 2 1

  2. Objectives of the Module • Introduce scientific concepts and findings relevant for understanding climate change • Highlight observed and projected impacts of climate change on natural and human systems • Introduce organizations that can provide scientific information on climate change Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

  3. Overview • Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science • Section 2: Observed and Predicted Impacts of Climate Change • Section 3: Human and Natural Drivers of Climate Change • Section 4: Sources of Scientific Data on Climate Change Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

  4. The Importance of Climate Change Science • Climate change science allows us to: • Understand how and why the climate is changing • Assess how humans are influencing the climate • Project how climate may change in the future • Prepare for possible future changes • Enact policies and modify behaviors to prevent damage “The more we know about a subject…the more likely our conclusions about it are to be true” Naomi Oreskes, 2008 Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

  5. Why is Climate Change Science Important from a Sub-national Perspective? • Sound weather data and forecasts important for: • Short-term planning (e.g. harvests) • Emergency response (e.g. preparedness for extreme events) • Climate models help to forecast long term climate scenarios at the territorial level • Important input for vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning • Fosters climate resilient development and avoids mal-adaption • Important to build up climate change science capacity at the sub-national level Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

  6. What is the Greenhouse Effect? Source: IPCC Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

  7. Complexity of the Global Climate System Source: IPCC Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

  8. Overview of Natural and Human Greenhouse Gases • Greenhouse gases (GHGs) are gases in the atmosphere that absorb and emit radiation • GHGs naturally blanket the earth and keep it about 33 degrees Celsius warmer than it would be without these gases in the atmosphere Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

  9. The Carbon Cycle: Natural and Human Factors Source: UNEP Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

  10. Global Warming, Climate Change, and Changing Weather • The difference between Climate and Weather • Weather changes in the short term (e.g. daily, weekly, monthly) • Climate is average weather and occurs over long time frames (e.g. 30 years) • Global Warming • Refers to the overall warming of the planet, based on average temperature over the entire surface of the earth Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

  11. Global Warming, Climate Change, and Changing Weather • Climate Variability • Refers to the naturally occurring changing patterns of the climate from year to year • Climate Change • Refers to changes in climate characteristics, including temperature, humidity, rainfall, wind, and severe weather events over long term periods • Although the climate is warming globally, local weather patterns may still feature extreme cold spells …… Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

  12. Overview • Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science • Section 2: Observed and Predicted Impacts of Climate Change • Section 3: Human and Natural Drivers of Climate Change • Section 4: Sources of Scientific Data on Climate Change Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

  13. Climate Variability Over Time Source: Mann et al, 2008 Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

  14. Observed and Modeled Temperature Change Source: UNEP Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

  15. Examples of Observed Climate Change • Floods • The frequency of floods has increased by nearly 300% in the past 30 years • Droughts/heat waves • The most extreme three heat waves/droughts in 50 years occurred in Europe in 2003, Australia in 2009 and China in 2010 • Extreme events/storms • Storms, including hurricanes have been measured to have increased intensity since the 1980s Source: UNEP Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

  16. Observed Impact: Changes in Physical and Biological Systems Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

  17. Observed Impact: Sea Level Rise Source: IPCC Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

  18. Observed Impact: Glacier Loss • The annual average Arctic sea ice extent has shrunk by 2.7 per cent each decade, with larger decreases in summer • Mountain glaciers and average snow cover have declined in both hemispheres. Source: UNEP Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

  19. Projected Impact on Ecosystems • Biodiversity: decreases in the forest cover will lead to loss of species • Carbon stores: thawing of the peat lands and permafrost will release huge amounts of CO2 • Protective function: loss of mangrove forests leave coastal regions vulnerable to storm surges • Loss of habitat: warming temperatures on mountains mean climatic habitats shift in altitude Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

  20. Projected Impact on Human Systems • Agriculture • Loss of productivity as crops fail in warmer temperatures mean that between 5 million and 170 million additional people are predicted to be at risk of hunger by 2080 • Freshwater • Less security of water supply as more droughts and less rain occurs • Health • Increased/or changed burden of diseases as tropical diseases such malaria spread Source: FAO Website Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

  21. Projected Impact on Cities • Climate variability (e.g. flooding, landslides, heat waves, drought and sea level rise) enhances vulnerability of cities • Will have significant impact on communities infrastructure, economy and livelihoods • Urbanization may be accelerated by climate induced rural-urban migration Source: Flickr, SixFourG Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

  22. Projected Impacts of Climate Change in Africa e Source: UNEP Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

  23. Projected Impacts of Climate Change in Asia Source: UNEP Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

  24. Projected Impacts of Climate Change in Australia and New Zealand Source: UNEP Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

  25. Projected Impacts of Climate Change in Europe Source: UNEP Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

  26. Projected Impacts of Climate Change in Latin America Source: UNEP Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

  27. Projected Impacts of Climate Change in North America Source: UNEP Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

  28. Projected Impacts of Climate Change in the Polar Regions Source: UNEP • The Arctic • Natural Environment • Reductions in the extent of sea ice • Increase in seasonal permafrost thawing • Increased coastal erosion • Human Environment • Loss of traditional ways of life • Detrimental impact on infrastructure • Reduced heating costs • The Antarctic • Reductions in thickness and extent of glaciers and ice sheets • Changes in natural ecosystems impacting: • Migratory birds • Higher predators Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

  29. Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Small Islands • Water • Reduce water resources for many small islands due to water table inundation, reduced rainfall and reduced island size associated with rising sea levels • Model projections suggest that a 10% reduction in average rainfall by 2050 is likely to correspond to a 20% reduction in the size of the freshwater lens on Tarawa Atoll, Kiribati • Sea Level Rise • Deterioration in coastal conditions: • Erosion of beaches • Storm surge inundation • Coral bleaching • Reduce the value of these destinations for tourism • Threatens vital infrastructure, settlements and facilities that support the livelihood of island communities Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

  30. Projected Long Term Impact on Major Ecosystems (Beyond 2050) • Loss of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets • Collapse of the Gulf Stream • Destruction of the Amazon rainforest • Loss of the boreal forests • Changes to the West African monsoon and loss of the Indian monsoon Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

  31. Economic Implications of Climate Change • Climate change could cost from 5 to 20 percent of global GDP if no action is taken. Source: Stern Report, 2006 • Costs arise from preventing, preparing for and repairing the damage from climate change impacts • Industries particularly affected • Timber • Fisheries • Tourism • Travel • Agriculture Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

  32. Social Implications of Climate Change • Equity: Climate change will affect the poorest the most, causing greater inequality both between and within countries • Migration: Some estimates suggest that nearly 200 million people will be displaced from their homes due to climate change by 2050 • Conflict: Increasing level of conflict is expected due to scarcity of resources and migration Source: UNESCO Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

  33. Scenarios of Future Emissions and Temperature Increase Source: IPCC Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

  34. What Emission Reductions are Required to Protect the Global Climate? Source: IPCC 2007 Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

  35. Overview • Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science • Section 2: Observed and Predicted Impacts of Climate Change • Section 3: Human and Natural Drivers of Climate Change • Section 4: Sources of Scientific Data on Climate Change Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

  36. Major Greenhouse Gas Emissions Caused by Humans • Carbon Dioxide (CO2) • Methane (CH4) • Nitrous Oxide (N2O) • CFC’s Source: IPCC (2007) Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

  37. Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Source Source: IPCC (2007) Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

  38. CO2 Emissions by Country Source: IPCC (2007) Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

  39. GHG emissions from agriculture Source: WRI (2005) Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

  40. Global CO2 Emissions Trends Source: NOAA 2012 Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

  41. Important Greenhouse Gases: Source: NOAA Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

  42. Important Greenhouse Gases: Carbon Dioxide (CO2) • Important features • Most important greenhouse gas (77% of all GHG emissions) • Stays in the atmosphere between 50 – 200 years • Global Warming Potential of 1 • Primary sources • The burning of fossil fuels • Deforestation and forest degradation • Iron and steel production • Major sinks: • Oceans • Forests Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

  43. Important Greenhouse Gases: Nitrous Oxide (N2O) • The fourth most significant greenhouse gas (8% of GHG emissions) • Stays in the atmosphere for an estimated 114 years • Global Warming Potential of 298 • Primary sources: • Fertilizer production and use in agriculture • Major sink: • Destruction in the atmosphere Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

  44. Important Greenhouse Gases: Methane (CH4) • Second most significant greenhouse (14% of GHG emissions) • Stays in the atmosphere for approximately 8 years • Global Warming Potential of 25 • Primary sources: • Fossil fuel mining and distribution • Decomposition of landfill waste • Ruminant animals (cattle and sheep) • Rice agriculture • Major sinks • Destruction in the atmosphere Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

  45. Important Greenhouse Gases: Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) • The fifth most important group of greenhouse gases (1% of GHG) • Stay in the atmosphere ranging from 1.5 years to 12,000 years • Global Warming Potential of between 1,430 and 14,800 • Primary sources: • Most CFC’s and other F gases are manmade for refrigeration and industrial processes • Major sinks: • Destruction in the atmosphere Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

  46. Short-Lived Climate Pollutants (SLCPs) • Substances that contribute to global warming and have relatively short lifetimes in the atmosphere: • Black Carbon (BC) • Methane (CH4) • Tropospheric Ozone (O3) • Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) • Climate and Clean Air Coalition to Reduce SLCP • Evaluates 16 black carbon and methane mitigation measures –could reduce global warming between 2010 and 2040 by about 0.4°C Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

  47. Climate and Clean Air Coalition to Reduce SLCP • Coalition pursues 5 initial clusters of efforts: • Reducing black carbon emissions from heavy duty diesel vehicles & engines • Mitigating SLCPS and other pollutants from brick production • Mitigating SLCPS from landfills and municipal solid waste sector • Promoting HFC alternative technology and standards • Accelerating methane and black carbon reductions from oil and natural gas production Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

  48. Overview • Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science • Section 2: Observed and Predicted Impacts of Climate Change • Section 3: Human and Natural Drivers of Climate Change • Section 4: Sources of Scientific Data on Climate Change Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

  49. Generating Knowledge on Climate Change: The IPCC • The IPCC www.ipcc.ch is the leading body for the assessment of climate change • Established in 1988 by UNEP and WMO • Assesses all peer reviewed and published climate change research and synthesizes the results • Coordinates global and regional projections for future climate change • Analyzes possible adaption and mitigation options • Was awarded the 2007 Nobel Peace prize for its work along with Al Gore Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

  50. Important Reports Published by the IPCC • Assessment reports • First in 1990, the fourth and most recent published in 2007, fifth report published in September 2013 • Special reports on: • Emission Scenarios • Aviation • Carbon Capture and Storage • Methodology reports • Guidance for national greenhouse gas inventories • Guidance for assessing impacts of climate change • Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry • Technical papers • Climate Change and Water • Implications of Proposed CO2 Emissions Limitations • Technologies, Policies and Measures for Mitigating Climate Change Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

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