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Anthropogenic Climate Change Science and Response

Anthropogenic Climate Change Science and Response. Phillip O’Brien p.obrien@epa.ie Climate Change Unit, EPA Atmospheric Physics, NUI, Galway. Outline of Seminar. Who am I? Environmental Protection Agency Climate Change Research Programme Review of Basic Science Recent Research findings

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Anthropogenic Climate Change Science and Response

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  1. Anthropogenic Climate ChangeScience and Response Phillip O’Brienp.obrien@epa.ie Climate Change Unit, EPA Atmospheric Physics, NUI, Galway

  2. Outline of Seminar • Who am I? • Environmental Protection Agency • Climate Change Research Programme • Review of Basic Science • Recent Research findings • International Response to Climate Change • National Emissions Inventory (2010)

  3. Who am I? • BSc Applied Physics DCU • MSc Experimental Physics NUI.Galway • Research • Ozone and Air Quality modelling • Methane field measurement and Inverse Modelling • Inventory methodology, Land Use • NUIG, NUIM, University of London • EPA

  4. Environmental Protection Agency • Independent Government Body • Environmental Protection Agency Act, 1992. • Waste Management Act, 1996. • Protection of the Environment Act, 2003. • Proposed Climate Change Act (2011?) • Approximately 250 people • Headquarters in Wexford • 5 regional offices Dublin, Cork, Kilkenny, Monaghan, Castlebar

  5. Roles of EPA • Environmental licensing • Enforcement of environmental law • Environmental planning, education and guidance • Monitoring, analysing and reporting on the environment • Regulating Ireland's greenhouse gas emissions • Environmental research development • Strategic environmental assessment • Waste management

  6. Climate Change Research Programme

  7. CCRP • 2007-2013 • 42 research on-going projects • Carbon Neutrality by 2050 • Examples • Carbon Capture and Storage Potential in Ireland • Climate Change Indictors and Impacts in Ireland • Extreme Events in the Historic and Instrumental Records • Quantifying the Capture and Use of Methane from Landfills • Quantfying Methane Emission from Livestock • Analysis of Options for Sustainable Transport

  8. Review Basic Science

  9. Basic Science: Incoming Radiation 1365 wm-2 Incoming at top of atmosphere 342 wm-2 Incoming at surface

  10. Basic Science Cntd. Energy Budget Balance at top of atmosphere 342 in 107+235 (342) out Balance at surface 168+ 324 (492)in 24+78+390 (492) out

  11. Causes of Climate Change: Celestial MechanicsChanges in Earth Orbit etc. Next Ice Age 30,000yrs

  12. Causes of Climate ChangeVolcanic Activity and Geological Erosion Current global volcanic activity amount to just 1/150th of the CO2 emissions from Fossil fuels In the past CO2 concentrations were indeed much higher (3000ppb) than now (385 ppb) The processes of erosion gradually remove CO2 from the atmosphere

  13. Causes of Climate ChangeSolar Variability Solar variability does have an impact on Climate There is evidence that an extended period of reduced solar activity called the Maunder Minimum caused the so called “Little Ice Age” (1645-1750) http://climatechangepsychology.blogspot.com/

  14. Causes of Climate ChangeSolar Variability • Recent Climate Change does not correlated well with observed solar activity.

  15. Causes of Climate ChangeAerosol effects Global dimming thought to have masked warming during the 1960’s and 70’s

  16. Causes of Climate ChangeChanges in Land Surface This is important, Second only to GHG emissions for causes climate change in modern times (25% of warming) Due to human activity and impact of climate change on natural ecosystems Land surface is darker (aborbs more incoming radiation) Loss of vegetation, major terrestrial store of carbon (converted to CO2)

  17. Causes of Climate ChangeGreenhouse Gases Water vapour (H2O) Accounts for about 60% of Greenhouse effect. However, it is not a driver of climate change. It’s present in the atmosphere is a response (feedback) to the initial driver

  18. Ian Stewart demonstration of CO2 absorption

  19. Drivers of Climate Change relative to 1750Radiative Forcing

  20. Attribution: It’s “mostly likely” GHG Observations IPCC AR4

  21. Aside:The Scientific Method and Global Climate Models • Make an observation • Propose a theory/explanation • Make more observations designed to test the theory • Observations from experiments • Repeatable • Control over conditions • Universal • Observations from the Environment • Usually once off events • Little or no control • Site specific

  22. AsideClimate Model development

  23. AsideGlobal Climate Models The theory predicts Increase temperature in lower atmosphere Decrease in temperature in the stratosphere

  24. Global temperatures Observations agreed with model

  25. Sea Level Rise PNAS April 2010

  26. Global Warming Observation • Global Climate Change is on-going • 0.15-0.20 oC/decade Jim Hansen et al, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies

  27. Models are not perfect • Arctic Sea Ice Extent is changing rapidly • Models do not currently capture this The Copenhagen Diagnosis (2009) US National Snow and Ice Service http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

  28. Drought patterns Palmer Drought Severity Index

  29. Global emissions

  30. IPCC, UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC • 1989 • United Nations Environment Programme and WMO • Assessment of science, policy neutral • United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change • 1992, in response to the IPCC First Assessment Report (1991) • Kyoto Protocol, KP • 1997 (came into force 2007 when Russia ratified, US failed to ratify) • Coincided with Second Assessment Report • 2008-2012 • Copenhagen Accord • December 2009 • International support for the “2oC Target” • Mexico Agreement • December 2010

  31. Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change

  32. The proposed pathway to reducing the risk of dangerous climate change

  33. Changing Energy Landscape

  34. IPCC • Technical Papers • Mitigation Options in Agriculture • Climate Change and Water • Methodology Reports • Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories • 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories • Assessment Reports • FAR 1990 • SAR 1995 • TAR 2001 • AR4 2007, Nobel Prize • AR5 2013 • Special Reports • Carbon Capture and Storage 2005 • Technology Transfer 2000 • Emission Scenarios 2000 http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_reports.htm

  35. Cascading level of decision making and increasing detail from the Convention down to the CRF and GPG (1992-2006) The Marrakesh Accords to The Kyoto Protocol

  36. National Emissions Inventory • What is an Emissions Inventory? • Estimate of the release to the environment (atmosphere) of a variety of pollutant or environmental harmful species, over a given period (usually one year) • Inferred from activity data which is directly related to the emission • E.g. petrol sales (carbon dixoide), number of livestock (methane), fertiliser sales (nitrous oxide) • Accurately represent local (national) circumstances as far as is reasonable • Comprehensive, identify and evaluate all sources • Compromise between precision and cost and complexity • Agreed methodology

  37. National Emissions 1990-2008 • Rapid increase in 1990’s • Stabilised or slightly decreasing since 2001 • 2008 67Mt CO2 eq 2.5Mt above Target even with Forest Sink NIR 2010 (Provisional

  38. Sectoral Breakdown of Emissions Trends • Energy encouraging trend since 2001 • Agriculture contracting • Residential steady • Industry increasing gradually • Transport emissions nearly triple • Forest Sink is about 2xWaste source (not shown)

  39. The Future • Tesla Electric Roadster • Wind Turbine • Thank you

  40. Ice loss

  41. Proxy reconstruction of temperature

  42. AR4 Summary for Policymakers

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