AIP-2 CC&Bio WG Use scenarios

1. OGC TC Meeting Valencia, Spain 2 Dec 2008 AIP-2 CC&Bio WGUse scenarios Stefano Nativi (CNR) and Gary Geller (NASA/JPL)

2. Selected use scenarios • CC impact on Pika distribution • CC impact on Polar Ecosystems • Vegetation changes in Arctic Ecosystems

3. CC impact on Pika distribution

4. Abstract • This scenario is driven primarily by scientific research on the distribution of pika and how it is changing. • From the GEOSS infrastructure perspective, an important objective is to investigate the interoperability process to determine valuable predictors for the impact of climate change on biodiversity • Use observations of pika over the last 20 years, plus existing modeling demonstration systems, to model pika distributions and how they may change with climate Users • Scientist and decision makers.

5. Context and pre-conditions Area of Interest • The US Great Basin region • Other regions in Asia may be considered Scientific patrons • Dr. Chris Ray (University of Colorado - CO USA) • Dr. Falk Huettmann • EWHALE lab- Biology and Wildlife Dept., Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks

6. Context and pre-conditions Resources • IPCC data (WMO) • Biodiversity datasets (GBIF) • Biodiversity datasets (Univ. Colorado) • Local CC model: TOPS (NASA/JPL) • IP3 ENM server (IP3) • IP3 community distributed catalog (IP3)

7. General Approach

8. CC impact on Biodiversity/Ecosystems for the Polar area

9. Abstract • The scenario output will be as maps of Arctic biodiversity, habitat and ecological service changes, as well as a summarized scenario runs with all relevant metrics provided in a simple to comprehend table. • All outputs will carry statistical confidence, and should allow to feed directly into policy making. • The scenario models will allow to assess the amount and quality of Ecological Services provided by the Arctic. • The activities are intended to be linked with all relevant components of the IPY (International Polar Year). Users • This scenario will cater the needs for • the global public, scientists, and more specifically, the local decision-maker for achieving best sustainability options.

10. Context and pre-conditions Predict Future conditions • To predict the future scenarios, we will create quantitative associations of biodiversity and habitat with the current and long-term, and then apply these to known and assumed future conditions. • Possible biodiversity topics include • Polar Bears presence • plankton, selected benthos species, ringed seals, walrus, narwhale, arctic codand endemic plants. Area of Interest • The Arctic (as defined as the 60 degree latitude circle) Scientific patrons • Dr. Falk Huettmann • EWHALE lab- Biology and Wildlife Dept., Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks

13. Context and pre-conditions Resources • IPCC data (WMO/NCAR) • Biodiversity datasets (GBIF) • Landasat data (USGS) • IP3 community distributed catalog (IP3) • IP3 ENM server (IP3)

14. General Approach

15. Vegetation changes in artic ecosystems

16. Abstract • This scenario seeks to identify the extent and degree of vegetation changes in response to climate change in arctic ecosystems, and in particular, the boreal-tundra ecotone. • Users • Scientist • with expertise in • use of remote sensing • image processing

17. Context and pre-conditions Area of Interest • The Arctic (as defined as the 60 degree latitude circle) • with sites where consistent historical satellite data (Landsat) exist Scientist patrons • Dr. Douglas Nebert (USGS)

18. Context and pre-conditions • Resources • Landsat MSS, 4-band data • the primary long-term source of EO data • Climate and weather data records for polar observation sites • help establish a local baseline for estimation and comparison. • Elevation data • Help understand and extrapolate terrestrial temperature lapse rates from observation sites to test sites. • GeoBrain by GMU • GloVis or Z39.50 client

19. General Approach