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Post-GAME Planning Workshop and Asian Water Cycle Symposium

Post-GAME Planning Workshop and Asian Water Cycle Symposium. 1 November 2005 2-4 November 205 The University of Tokyo, Japan. The global MM5 for Long Range Weather Forecast in Thailand. Theeranun Raktabutr Somchai Baimoung Boonlert Archevarahuprok. Thai Meteorological Department (TMD).

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Post-GAME Planning Workshop and Asian Water Cycle Symposium

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  1. Post-GAME Planning WorkshopandAsian Water Cycle Symposium 1 November 2005 2-4 November 205 The University of Tokyo, Japan

  2. The global MM5 for Long Range Weather Forecast in Thailand Theeranun Raktabutr Somchai Baimoung Boonlert Archevarahuprok Thai Meteorological Department (TMD)

  3. OUTLINE • Introduction • TMD Weather Forecast • TMD LRWF Issues • global MM5 • Linux Cluster • Sample Results (Precipitation) • Conclusion

  4. The medium and long-range weather forecast of Thai Meteorological Department has been conducted at present by means of statistical, analogue, and/or climatology data analysis which based on the monthly and long-range forecasted products that obtained from several other climate prediction centers including ECMWF, IRI, JMA, KMA, NCEP and so on. Introduction

  5. To improve those forecast, the global MM5 (Fifth-Generation Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model) is the first system that has been adopted for 30 day weather prediction Introduction (cont.)

  6. TMD Weather Forecast • SRWF beyond 12-hours and up to 3-days • MRWF beyond 3-days and up to 7-days • LRWF longer than 7-days ahead

  7. TMD LRWF Issues • Monthly Weather Outlook publish every month before actual weather will be take place • Seasonal Weather Outlook rainy Apr. mid-May – mid-October winter Sep. mid-October – mid-February summer Jan. mid-February – mid-May

  8. global MM5 • Two hemispheric domains with polar stereographic projections centered on the north and south poles, • The domains are joined together at the equator and provide each other with lateral boundary conditions using a simple 4-point interpolation onto the other's grid at every time step. • with the global initial analysis data at 00 UTC from the National Center for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System model (GFS)

  9. global MM5 (cont.) • 210 x 210 grid point • 23 levels • 60-120 km. grid distance • time step 210 seconds • grell cuumulus • simple-ice microphysics • MRF PBL • cloud radiation • 5-layer soil temperature

  10. Linux Cluster • 10-node Linux Cluster dual AMD opteron 2.0 GHz • NCEP Initial data • 720-hour Prediction • 11 hours and 10 minutes CPU time • Vis5D, GrADS, GMT and GIS

  11. Sample Results (1-7)

  12. Sample Results (8-14)

  13. Sample Results (15-21)

  14. Sample Results (22-28)

  15. Sample Results (Loop 7day)

  16. Sample Results (Loop 24hr)

  17. Conclusion • The techniques, methodology and process in preparing a LRWF model are being investigated • The ability of the global MM5 model can be adapted for 30-day LRWF for Thailand • Future, three month and considered the lower boundary condition and SST.

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