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Calculation of Normalised Business and Consumer Confidence Indicators and Zone Aggregates

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Calculation of Normalised Business and Consumer Confidence Indicators and Zone Aggregates

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    1. Calculation of Normalised Business and Consumer Confidence Indicators and Zone Aggregates Olivier Brunet OECD Statistics Directorate

    2. Topics National indicators for zones Methodology Publication of results Alternative approaches for zones Comparison with World and Euro confidence indicators Conclusions and future work

    3. National indicators for zones (Manufacturing)

    4. National indicators for zones (consumer)

    5. Methodology Periodicity 1. Quarterly data refer to the first month of the quarter 2. Quarterly data refer to second month of the quarter 3. Quarterly data refer to second month of the quarter with 3rd last month extrapolated 4. Quarterly data refer to third month of the quarter

    6. Methodology (following) Smoothing - MCD (Months for cyclical Dominance) - QCD (Quarter for Cyclical Dominance) Standardisation / Normalisation Substract the mean and then divide by the mean of the absolute values of the differences from the mean.

    7. Methodology (following) Weighting (GDP-PPP)

    8. Methodology (final) Aggregation - 90 % of total weight for Major 7 countries - 60 % of total weight for other zones: . OECD total . Euro area . Big 6 Non OECD area . World proxy

    9. Publication of results (manufacturing)

    10. Publication of results (consumers)

    11. Publication of results (manufacturing)

    12. Publication of results (manufacturing)

    13. Publication of results (manufacturing)

    14. Publication of results (consumers)

    15. Publication of results (consumers)

    16. Publication of results Manufacturing and consumers

    17. 3 Alternative Approaches

    20. Comparison of World and Euro area confidence indicators

    21. World Business Confidence Indicators

    22. Euro area Business Confidence Indicators

    23. Conclusions Publication of results: Business confidence indicators (manufacturing) (Euro Area, Major 7, OECD Total, OECD Asia Pacific, Big 6 Non EODC, World proxy) Consumer confidence indicator (Euro Area, Major 7, OECD Total) Methodology: Use of the option de-trending

    24. Future work Calculation of country specific business confidence indicators for Non EU countries Incorporation of consumer confidence indicator (India, Indonesia, Russia) Extension of calculation of zone aggregates (NAFTA , Big 4 European, OECD Europe, EU15, OECD Asia, ..) Calculate regional or zone confidence indicators for other sectors Use of alternative weights (ex: share of imports and exports)

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