ASPO WORKSHOP Uppsala

1. ASPO WORKSHOPUppsala THE ASSESSMENT AND IMPORTANCE OF OIL DEPLETION by C.J.Campbell

2. Welcome We have come a long way in a year �Let Uppsala be to Oil Depletion what Kyoto is to Climate Change� - and a good deal better Thanks to Professor Aleklett Thanks to Professor Wellmer Welcome too to Sarah Astor from ODAC in London Ladies and Gentlemen, may I welcome you all. It is good to see old faces and it is even better to see new ones This undertaking has been building over the past year as a loose network - one could say a very loose network - of those concerned about the peak of oil and gas. It is an important subject becauseoil supplies 40% of the world�s energy and 90% of its transport fuel After peak comes decline. But before talking about that, I would like to propose two votes of thanks First to Professor Aleklett who took the initiative to organise this workshop and Second to Professor Welmer of the Bundesantalkt fur Geowischenshaften und Rorstoff in Hannover who was the first to give me the encouragement to try to organise our club. Lastly, I would like to welcome Sarah Astor from London, who represents the family whose generosity has made possible the creation of the Oil Depoletion Analysis Centre in London, which will help the cause greatly. Ladies and Gentlemen, may I welcome you all. It is good to see old faces and it is even better to see new ones This undertaking has been building over the past year as a loose network - one could say a very loose network - of those concerned about the peak of oil and gas. It is an important subject becauseoil supplies 40% of the world�s energy and 90% of its transport fuel After peak comes decline. But before talking about that, I would like to propose two votes of thanks First to Professor Aleklett who took the initiative to organise this workshop and Second to Professor Welmer of the Bundesantalkt fur Geowischenshaften und Rorstoff in Hannover who was the first to give me the encouragement to try to organise our club. Lastly, I would like to welcome Sarah Astor from London, who represents the family whose generosity has made possible the creation of the Oil Depoletion Analysis Centre in London, which will help the cause greatly.

3. Three Missions for ASPO 1. To study the endowment of oil and gas in Nature 2. To model depletion, taking into account economics, technology & politics 3. To raise awareness of this critical subject and the consequences for Mankind The challenges are great, but we have made good progress It seems to me that we have three missions To study the endowment of oil and gas in Nature, which is essentially a job for geologists To model depletion which involves not only the physics of the reservoir but also economic, technological and political factors And to raise awareness of this critical subject. This is the greatest challenge because we face obfuscation and denial on all sides. There are vested interests who prefer not to speak out; and there are vested interests who prefer not to hear the message But our weapons are strong as we attack with sound technical facts and relentless logic I think our voice is already being heard and that we will succeed to speak louder. The media is listening and reacting and they are driving the politicians It seems to me that we have three missions To study the endowment of oil and gas in Nature, which is essentially a job for geologists To model depletion which involves not only the physics of the reservoir but also economic, technological and political factors And to raise awareness of this critical subject. This is the greatest challenge because we face obfuscation and denial on all sides. There are vested interests who prefer not to speak out; and there are vested interests who prefer not to hear the message But our weapons are strong as we attack with sound technical facts and relentless logic I think our voice is already being heard and that we will succeed to speak louder. The media is listening and reacting and they are driving the politicians

4. A Geological Starting Point Geology is the bedrock of this subject A short introduction to petroleum geology sets the scene for our debate Geology is the bedrock of this subject. Never forget that oil is found by geologists : not engineers and certainly not economists, some of whom still think that the Earth is flat. For the benefit of those who are not petroleum geologists I would like to set the scene with a brief outline of petroleum geology.Geology is the bedrock of this subject. Never forget that oil is found by geologists : not engineers and certainly not economists, some of whom still think that the Earth is flat. For the benefit of those who are not petroleum geologists I would like to set the scene with a brief outline of petroleum geology.

5. The Geological Origins of Oil A few brief epochs of extreme global warming gave the bulk of the world�s oil Algal blooms gave organic matter, which was locally preserved in stagnant troughs It was converted to oil and gas on burial The processes are well understood. Isotopic evidence shows that oil comes from algae, whereas gas comes from vegetal material. Deep, over-heated oil also breaks down into gas. Another theory that oil comes from deep in the Earth's crust from inorganic sources, as proposed by certain academics, can be confidently rejected. The Earth's climate has fluctuated greatly in the geological past. The bulk of the world's oil comes from a few epochs of extreme global warming, when seas and lakes were effectively poisoned by algal growths. The organic material was preserved in stagnant troughs, especially in rifts, formed as tectonic plates moved apart. It was heated by the Earth's natural heat-flow as it was buried below younger sediments. When it reached a depth of about 2000m, chemical reactions converted it into oil and gas. Generation was a short-lived episodic event. Once formed, the oil began to move through the rocks, being locally trapped in geological structures. Much has been lost over geological time. Isotopic evidence shows that oil comes from algae, whereas gas comes from vegetal material. Deep, over-heated oil also breaks down into gas. Another theory that oil comes from deep in the Earth's crust from inorganic sources, as proposed by certain academics, can be confidently rejected. The Earth's climate has fluctuated greatly in the geological past. The bulk of the world's oil comes from a few epochs of extreme global warming, when seas and lakes were effectively poisoned by algal growths. The organic material was preserved in stagnant troughs, especially in rifts, formed as tectonic plates moved apart. It was heated by the Earth's natural heat-flow as it was buried below younger sediments. When it reached a depth of about 2000m, chemical reactions converted it into oil and gas. Generation was a short-lived episodic event. Once formed, the oil began to move through the rocks, being locally trapped in geological structures. Much has been lost over geological time.

6. Oceanic Anoxic Events