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Contribution to ASPO-Workshop 2003, Paris

Contribution to ASPO-Workshop 2003, Paris. Renewable Energy in Europe - past and Future July 27, 2003 Paris Dr. Werner Zittel, L-B-Systemtechnik GmbH, Germany. - Development over the past decade and trend extrapolations - Renewables and transport sector.

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Contribution to ASPO-Workshop 2003, Paris

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  1. Contribution to ASPO-Workshop 2003, Paris Renewable Energy in Europe - past and Future July 27, 2003 Paris Dr. Werner Zittel, L-B-Systemtechnik GmbH, Germany - Development over the past decade and trend extrapolations - Renewables and transport sector

  2. Renewable Energy in Europe - past and Future • Most official energy forecasts extrapolate „business as usual scenarios“ • If no structural problem in conventional energy supply is perceived, there is no need • to change to renewable fuels • Under present economic conditions renewable energy sources are uneconomic or marginally economic (neglecting external costs and subsidies of fossil and nuclear fuels) • However, if climate change is a real issue, if nuclear has serious problems and if • oil becomes a scarce commodity, economic conditions will change in favor of renewable energy technologies

  3. Renewables and the Energy Sector - a different view • If oil production will peak soon, this will have serious consequences on • economy and energy prices • In contrast to 1980, energy efficiency as well as renewable energy is at • a much more sophisticated technological and economic level • which allows for market introduction on a broad scale • The future will show which perspective is closer to reality: The IEA-forecast or the LBST-forecast! It is not unlikely that future energy supply develops as seen by LBST:

  4. Renewables and the Energy Sector - a differentl view! 2020: IEA TPES 13500 oil 39 % gas 26 % coal 25 % nuclear 5 % solar 5 % 90 Mbpd 80 Mbpd 75 Mbpd

  5. Renewables and the Energy Sector - a differentl view! 2020: IEA TPES 13500 oil 39 % gas 26 % coal 25 % nuclear 5 % solar 5 % 90 Mbpd 80 Mbpd 75 Mbpd : BP Statistical Review of World Energy

  6. Renewables and the Energy Sector - a differentl view! 2020: IEA LBST TPES 13500 12500 oil 39 % 25 % gas 26 % 33 % coal 25 % 14 % nuclear 5 % 5% solar 5 % 23 % 90 Mbpd 80 Mbpd 75 Mbpd coal : BP Statistical Review of World Energy : LBST most likely forecast

  7. EU-15: Electricity from hydro power GWhel EU-Electricity Production 2002: ~ 2500 TWh ~12 % of OECD Energy balances Change of statistical base

  8. EU-15: Electricity from hydro power - adapted GWhel EU-Electricity Production 2002: ~ 2500 TWh ~12 % of Statistics unclear OECD Energy balances Change of statistical base (corrected)

  9. EU-15 Electricity Production from Wind energy • In the 1980ies, Denmark started to establish a wind energy industry • Today the Danish wind energy industry has more employees than the • ship building industry • In the 1990ies, Germany supported the wind energy industry by feed-in rules [Renewable Energy Act] which gave marginal earnings (at favorable sites and with good planning the return on investment is reasonable, at poor sites or with poor management the return on investment is negative) • Most European Countries have not yet even started to use its wind energy potentials • Even under „poor“ economic conditions wind energy has growth rates at about • 40 percent p.y. since more than a decade. Already today the share of wind energy in electricity generation is above 1.5 %. • As soon as even pure market economics are in favor of wind energy, the growth • rates could enhance and swap over to those countries with vast resources

  10. EU-15: Successful market introduction of wind power GWhel ~1.6 % of EU-Electricity Production 2002: ~ 2500 TWh Growth Rate 1990-2000: ~ 40 % p.y. Capacity statistics from EWEA energy production: LBST-calculation

  11. EU-15: Successful market introduction of wind power GWhel ~1.6 % of EU-Electricity Production 2002: ~ 2500 TWh Growth Rate 1990-2000: ~ 40 % p.y. Capacity statistics from EWEA energy production: LBST-calculation

  12. EU-15: Successful market introduction of wind power GWhel ~1.6 % of EU-Electricity Production 2002: ~ 2500 TWh Growth Rate 1990-2000: ~ 40 % p.y. Capacity statistics from EWEA energy production: LBST-calculation

  13. EU-15: Successful market introduction of wind power GWhel Equivalent to oil field with 200 kb/day or 1.4 Gb size Growth Rate 1990-2000: ~ 40 % p.y. Capacity statistics from EWEA energy production: LBST-calculation

  14. EU-15: How much wind energy is it? • In 2002 Europe added wind capacity which was five times as much as that of an average nuclear plant. • The electricity generated in 2002 will be equal to that of five nuclear power plants • If this amount would be produced from oil fired power plants, it would consume 75 mio barrel/year or 200 kb/day. • Over 20 years life time this saves about 1.5 Gb of oil • Planning times of new wind parks are in the range of 2 - 3 years before grid connection is achieved • Within the last ten years 40 TWh/yr electricity from wind are added. This is equivalent to the planning, construction and connection of five large nuclear power plants. Would it be possible, to add five nuclear power plants within ten years (including planning, construction and grid connection)?

  15. EU 15 - Electricity Production from Wind Energy - Forecast • If 2002 would mark the peak year of new wind capacity additions and the decline would be symmetric to the growth, then wind energy in Europe would end up with about 4 percent share on electricity production • The European Wind Energy Association expects wind energy to contribute • about 5 % of EU-15 electricity supply until 2010 and above 10 percent until 2020. This is equivalent to 16 % annual growth • The actual growth rate is even twice as much (35 % p.y.)

  16. EU 15 - Electricity Production from Wind Energy - Forecast MW If peak growth was in 2002.

  17. EU 15 - Electricity Production from Wind Energy - Forecast MW If present growth continues 35 % p.a.

  18. EU 15 - Electricity Production from Wind Energy - Forecast MW 35 % p.a. EWEA- Target 2000 Onshore offshore

  19. EU 15 - Electricity Production from Wind Energy - Forecast MW 35 % p.a. EWEA- Target 2000 Share on EU-Electricity Production 5 % Onshore offshore 16 % p.a.

  20. Worldwide wind energy capacity • Forecasts by the IEA for oil, gas or nuclear energy were always much too optimistic Forecasts by the IEA for renewable energy are always bullish pessimistic • The IEA World Energy Outlook 1998 forecast for the year 2010 could be proofed to be wrong almost three years after its publication • With respect to the IEA world energy outlook 2002 forecast even at end 2002 reality was about five years ahead of the forecast • In 1999 BTM consult published a road map for achieving a share of 10 percent on world electricity production in 2020 by wind energy. („Windforce ten“) Already in 2002 the reality is ahead of that road map

  21. Worldwide wind energy capacity GW Reality 1997 IEA World Energy Outlook 1998

  22. Worldwide wind energy capacity GW Reality 1999 IEA World Energy Outlook 1998

  23. Worldwide wind energy capacity GW Windforce 10 (2020 10 % electricity share) [1999] Reality 1999 IEA World Energy Outlook 1998

  24. Worldwide wind energy capacity GW Windforce 10 (2020 10 % electricity share) [1999] IEA World Energy Outlook 2002 Reality 1999 IEA World Energy Outlook 1998

  25. Worldwide wind energy capacity GW Windforce 10 (2020 10 % electricity share) [1999] IEA World Energy Outlook 2002 1% share of electricity production Reality 2002 IEA World Energy Outlook 1998

  26. EU-15 Electricity Production from Biomass • Sweden, Finland and Austria have the largest share of biomass in • electricity production • The growth rate in Finland was about 10 % annually • The share of biomass in electricity generation is about 1.1 percent • In latest years biomass gasification helped to increase the share

  27. EU-15: Successful market introduction of Biomass GWhel ~1.1 % of EU-Electricity Production 2002: ~ 2500 TWh UK Sweden Growth Rate 1990-2000: ~ 10 % p.y. Germany Finland Austria Source: 1989-2000 OECD Statistics 2002 2001/2002 various country statistics from national instituts and own estimates

  28. Share on EU-Electricity Production 5 % EU-15 Electricity Production from Biomass - Forecast GWhel EU-Electricity Production 2002: ~ 2500 TWh 20 % p.y. 10 % p.y. 7 % p.y. Growth Rate 1990-2000: ~ 10 % p/yr

  29. EU-15 Electricity Production from Photovoltaics • The growth of PV was largest in Germany over the last decade (~ 30 %) Since the existence of the feed-in law in 1999 the growth rate increased strongly • Today, installed PV capacity in Germany is at the same level as wind energy was • ten years ago • The costs of grid connected PV systems have reduced by a factor of three over the • last 15 years and today are close to 0.6 EUR/kWh in middle Europe. Since the introduction of the German feed in law in 1999 total cost of grid connected PV reduced by about 15 percent or 5 percent annualy. • Presently, BP alone employs more than 1000 employees in the PV business

  30. EU-15: Beginning market introduction of photovoltaics GWhel EU-Electricity Production 2002: ~ 2500 TWh 20 % p.a. PV-Share on Electricity Production in 2002: ~ 0,012 % 30 % p.a. Growth Rate 1991-2000: ~ 20-30 % p.a. Germany Capacity statistics from various statistical sources energy production: LBST-calculation

  31. EU-15 Electricity Production from Photovoltaics - Forecast • BP expects to reduce costs by another factor of two within next five years • Shell expects annual cost reductions by 5 - 6 percent • RWE Schott Solar expects 15-18 percent cost reduction with each doubling of production volume. • Swiss bank Sarassin expects the growth rate of PV to increase substantially over • the next few years (comparable to the cellular phone or PC market in the last years) • If the growth rate over the next ten years is the same as the growth rate of wind • energy over the past ten years, PV will contribute more than 1 percent to • EU electricity in 2010

  32. Share on EU-Electricity Production 1 % EU-15 Electricity Production from Photovoltaics - Forecast GWhel 50 % p.a. 40 % p.a. EU-Electricity Production 2002: ~ 2500 TWh Share on EU-Electricity Production 5 % 30 % p.a. Growth Rate 1991-2000: ~ 20-30 % p.a. 20 % p.a.

  33. Cum. Photovoltaics worldwide 2002 MW Substitutes 30 kb/day oil sources or 300 Mb field size BRD VdEW 95 world Jahr Quelle: WWI 1993; Sonnenergie & Wärmetechnik 1/98, Photon 1/98

  34. EU-15 Electricity Production from Geothermal Energy • Electricity production from geothermal grew about 3 percent annually • Today only Portugal, France and Italy use geothermal electricity • New methods (e.g. hot-dry rock; ORC electricity generation) open a huge • potential for electricity generation • The Geothermal Society expects electricity generation from geothermal • sources at 16 TWh in 2010 and between 24 - 64 TWh in 2020 (Ferrara- • Declaration 1999)

  35. EU-15 Electricity Production from Geothermal Energy GWhel 5 % p.a. EU-Electricity Production 2002: ~ 2500 TWh 3 % p.a. Geothermal-Share on Electricity Production 2000: ~ 0,17 % Growth Rate 1991-2000: ~ 3 % p.a. Portugal Growth Rate 1991-1998: ~ 30 % p.a. Italy

  36. EU-15 Electricity Production from All Renewables 2002 TWh/yr ~16 % share of electricity consumption

  37. EU-15 Electricity Production from All Renewables • Today Renewable Electricity supply has a share of 14 - 15 percent • If present trends continue for the next 20 years, this share will increase • to more than 20 percent in 2010 and to more than 50 percent in 2020 • (provided total electricity supply will remain constant; note that this holds even when hydro is kept constant and when wind energy will rise at half of • its historical growth rate) • If trends of „best practice countries“ apply to all EU countries this share could rise even faster

  38. EU-15 Electricity Production from All Renewables - Two scenarios TWhel Biomass 7 % p.a. Precautious Trend extrapolation Market introduction of wind power Wind 17 % p.a. TWhel Solar 30 %p.a. Geothermal 3 %p.a. Hydro 0 % p.a. EU-Electricity Production 2002: ~ 2500 TWh Biomass 10 % p.a. Wind 20 % p.a. Optimistic Trend extrapolation from „best practice“ countries Solar 40 %p.a. Geothermal 30 %p.a. Hydro 0 % p.a.

  39. EU-15 Electricity Production from All Renewables - Two scenarios TWhel Biomass 7 % p.a. Precautious Trend extrapolation Market penetration of wind power Market introduction of wind power Wind 17 % p.a. TWhel Solar 30 %p.a. Geothermal 3 %p.a. Hydro 0 % p.a. EU-Electricity Production 2002: ~ 2500 TWh Biomass 10 % p.a. Wind 20 % p.a. Optimistic Trend extrapolation from „best practice“ countries Solar 40 %p.a. Geothermal 30 %p.a. Hydro 0 % p.a.

  40. EU-15 Electricity Production from All Renewables - Two scenarios TWhel Biomass 7 % p.a. Precautious Trend extrapolation Market penetration of wind power and biomass Market introduction of wind power Wind 17 % p.a. TWhel Solar 30 %p.a. Geothermal 3 %p.a. Hydro 0 % p.a. EU-Electricity Production 2002: ~ 2500 TWh Biomass 10 % p.a. Wind 20 % p.a. Optimistic Trend extrapolation from „best practice“ countries Solar 40 %p.a. Geothermal 30 %p.a. Market introduction of solar electricity Hydro 0 % p.a.

  41. EU-15 Electricity Production from All Renewables - Two scenarios TWhel Biomass 7 % p.a. Precautious Trend extrapolation Market penetration of wind power and biomass Market introduction of wind power Wind 17 % p.a. TWhel Solar 30 %p.a. Geothermal 3 %p.a. Hydro 0 % p.a. EU-Electricity Production 2002: ~ 2500 TWh Biomass 10 % p.a. Wind 20 % p.a. Optimistic Trend extrapolation from „best practice“ countries Market penetration of solar and geothermal electricity ? Solar 40 %p.a. Geothermal 30 %p.a. Market introduction of solar electricity Hydro 0 % p.a.

  42. EU-15 Thermal End Use Energy Supply by Biomass • Contribution of biomass to thermal energy supply is about 6 %. • The annual growth rate varies between 2 - 5 percent annually • At present growth rate this could increase to 10-20 percent in 2020

  43. EU-15 Thermal End Use Energy Supply by Biomass GWhth 10 % p.a. Growth Rate Thermal End Use Energy Demand 2000: ~ 6000 TWh 5 % p.a. Growth Rate Share on EU Themal Energy Demand 10 % 2 % p.a. Growth Rate Growth Rate 1991-1998: ~ 2 % p.a. ~0.77 Mb/day

  44. EU-15 Thermal End Use Energy Supply by Solar Energy • Average growth rate of Solar thermal energy use is about 10 % annually • In Greece Solar thermal energy has a much higher share • than in Italy, Portugal or Spain with comparable • solar isolation. This is mainly due to different political support • The contribution in 2020 could rise to between 0.5 - 3 % if present trends continue (lower figure 10 % annual growth rate, upper figure 20 % annually)

  45. EU-15 Thermal End Use Energy Supply by Solar Energy GWhth Thermal End Use Energy Demand EU 2000: ~ 6000 TWh Solar Share on Thermal End Use Energy Supply 2002: ~ 0,095 % ~10 kb/day Growth Rate 1991-2000: ~ 10 % p.a. 2002-Zahlen: LBST-Schätzung mit BRD-Zahlen aus SW&T1/02 Capacity statistics from various statistical sources energy production: LBST-calculation

  46. EU-15 Thermal End Use Energy Supply by Solar Energy GWhth Thermal End Use Energy Demand EU 2000: ~ 6000 TWh Solar Share on Thermal End Use Energy Supply 2002: ~ 0,095 % ~10 kb/day Greece Growth Rate 1991-2000: ~ 10 % p.a. Growth Rate in Germany 1991-2000: ~ 20 % p.a. Growth Rate in Austria 1991-2000: 15 % p.a. 2002-Zahlen: LBST-Schätzung mit BRD-Zahlen aus SW&T1/02 Capacity statistics from various statistical sources energy production: LBST-calculation

  47. The Potential of Renewable Energy in the European Community • At the present growth rate, renewable energy will rise to a share of about 10 percent of thermal energy use in 2020 • At growth rates applicable to „best practice“ countries the share could rise to about 20 - 25 % • On the other hand: Thermal energy is mainly used in buildings • where in general the highest potential for increased efficiency exists

  48. The Potential of Renewable Energy in the European Community EU-thermal energy demand 2002: ~ 6000 TWh Biomass 2 % p.a. TWh th Solar 15 %p.a. Geothermal 3 %p.a. Biomasse 5% p.a. Solar 20 %p.a. Geothermal 10 % p.a.

  49. EU-15 End use energy requirement and oil dependence • The industry learned from the 1970ies oil crises • to reduce its energy consumption • Only the transport sector grew steadily over the last 40 years • The share of electricity on final energy supply is rising • The transport sector is most vulnerable to oil supply disruptions • The whole industry depends on cheap transport („just in time“ is • cheaper than large store houses)

  50. EU-15 End use energy requirement and oil dependence Mtoe Source: OECD renewable other electricity oil other Industry transport electricity Transport Industry Other Source: Energy Balances of OECD Countries

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