Enhancing Adaptation to Climate Impacts through Decision Support and Outreach

1. The Center for Science in the Earth System Enhancing Adaptation to Climate Impacts through Decision Support and Outreach December 2, 2004CIG 5 Year Review Lara Whitely Binder Center for Science in the Earth SystemClimate Impacts GroupUniversity of Washington Climate Science in the Public Interest

2. Decision Support and Outreach at CSES • Decision support and outreach activities at CSES strive to support CSES efforts to increase regional resilience to the impacts of climate variability and change. • Decision support activities are designed to facilitate the use of climate information in operations and planning. • Outreach activities disseminate information, build stakeholder relationships, and allow for feedback to CSES on research needs, products, and services.

3. Decision-Support Tools: Climate Variability Designed to help with management on seasonal to interannual time scales. Main products and services: • Seasonal climate outlook • Long-lead (1 year) climate-based streamflow forecasts • Six-month lead time reservoir forecasts tools (under development) • Oregon Coastal Coho salmon survival forecasts • Extreme weather risk forecasting • Office of the Washington State Climatologist

4. Seasonal Climate Outlook • CIG researchers evaluate global ENSO forecasts and PDO state for relevance to PNW temperature and precipitation conditions for the coming season. • Outlook is reviewed and updated monthly as needed. • Outlook available on CIG web site and the Washington State Climatologist web site • Benefit: Outlook lets resource managers hedge risks based on historically observed responses to ENSO and PDO. http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/fpt/cloutlook.shtml http://www.climate.washington.edu/outlook.html

5. Climate Forecast Estimated Initial Conditions Forecast Ensemble Lead time = 12 months Long-Lead Experimental Streamflow Forecasts for the Columbia R. Basin • An important factor in moving water managers towards incorporating climate info • Experimental forecasts made 8-12 months in advance of traditional forecasts • Forecast based on initial conditions, ENSO forecast, PDO state • Benefit: Forecasts guide decisions about reservoir mgmt, hydro production, instream flow mgmt Warm ENSO Only www.cses.washington.edu/cig/fpt/waterfc/oneyearstreamflow.shtml

6. Municipal Reservoir Forecasts Forecast based on ESP • Currently developing 6 month streamflow and reservoir forecasts for municipal water supplies in Puget Sound using NCEP forecasts, ESP • Product developed at the request of Puget Sound Water Supply Forum • Benefit: Forecasts will help reservoir managers balance storage, instream flow requirements at critical time periods NCEP-based forecast http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/res/hwr/muniwaterfc.shtml

7. Oregon Coastal Coho Marine Survival Forecasts • Methodology unique in recognizing the impact of winter conditions on coho marine survival. • Provides a pathway for incorporating 1 year lead time climate forecasts into seasonal harvest, allocation, and hatchery decisions • Benefit: Forecasts available 6 to 8 months in advance of traditional forecast methods (jacks, plankton) Coastal Ocean Conditions Sea surface temperatures Sea level Nearshore winds http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/fpt/orcohofc.shtml

8. Extreme Weather Risk Forecasting • Experimental 7-14 day extreme weather event risk assessment forecasts available for North America. • Forecasts include probabilities for: • Extreme warm/cold days, • Days with extremely high precip, • Heavy snowfall events • Benefit: Aids extreme events management High snow events are 2-4+ times more likely during negative PNA than positive PNA, depending on location http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/fpt/extreme.shtml

9. Office of the Washington State Climatologist • Reinstituted in 2003 in partnership with the Washington Department of Ecology • Provides support to public and private entities through collection, interpretation, and dissemination of climate data, forecasts, and other information • Staff includes Phil Mote (State Climatologist), CSES researcher and Outreach Specialist, and Robert Norheim (Assist. State Climatologist), CSES GIS Specialist. Office is housed at CSES. • Benefit: Provides an additional avenue for supporting the use of climate information in resource management http://www.climate.washington.edu/

10. Decision-Support Tools: Climate Change • Climate change impact scenarios • Client-based research consultancies • Climate change streamflow scenarios archive • Technical planning assistance • GIS mapping Designed to help managers evaluate and respond to projected climate change impacts. Research focused on the 2020s and 2040s. Main “products”:

11. Temperature and Precipitation Scenarios Projected changes in average annual PNW temperature and precipitation for the decades of the 2020s and 2040s Benefit: Scenarios allow managers to consider risks of climate change (i.e., “what if” scenarios). Based on an average of 8 global climate models driven by an increase in equivalent CO2 of 1% per year. Benchmarked to the decade of the 1990s. http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/fpt/ccscenarios.shtml

12. Scenarios for April 1 Snowpack Changes in April 1 snowpack available at basin and sub-basin levels Current Climate “2020s” (+3°F) “2040s” (+4.5°F) -44% -58%

13. Client-based Research Consultancies • City of Portland (2002) • Tualatin River Basin (2004) • Seattle Public Utilities (2004) Palmer, R.N. and M. Hahn, 2002. The Impacts of Climate Change on Portland’s Water Supply: An Investigation of Potential Hydrologic Management Implications on the Bull Run System.

14. Climate Change Streamflow Scenario Tool for the Columbia River Basin Partners: Northwest Power and Conservation Council Idaho Dept of Water Resources US Bureau of Reclamation US Army Corps of Engineers • Climate-adjusted streamflow data for 2020s and 2040s available on web site for 90+ locations in the Columbia River Basin • Benefit: Removes a barrier to climate impacts analysis. End user does not have to purchase, learn, and defend a new model to examine climate change impacts. Data can be used in existing planning models. www.cses.washington.edu/cig/fpt/ccstreamflowtool/sft.shtml

15. GIS tool being developed to deliver sub-regionally based information on climate and climate impacts. Mapping past and future patterns of PNW climate, including future climate scenarios. Numerous data layers: Elevation, hydrography (rivers/lakes), watershed boundaries, vegetation and land cover, soils, land ownership, political boundaries Benefit: Designed to aid planning efforts by providing information about the patterns of variability and change at a variety of spatial scales Mapping PNW Climate: GIS Tool

16. Outreach • Promotes regional understanding of climate impacts in PNW resource management. Activities include: • Workshops and meetings (4-5/year) • Presentations and briefings (75+/year) • One-on-one technical assistance (ex: watersheds) • Work with the local media • Web site development and maintenance • Provides opportunity for feedback from the stakeholder community

17. Meetings and Workshops • Sector-specific meetings with technical resource staff and senior decision makers: • Climate Impacts on Salmon Management and Recovery in the Columbia River Basin (9.21.04) • Fall climate and water forecast meetings (WA/OR and ID) • Climate and water policy meetings (2001, 2002) • 2005: expansion of salmon and coastal work http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/outreach/workshops.shtml

18. http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/fpt/watershedplan.shtml Technical Assistance for Watersheds • Information about climate variability and change needs to be translated for and delivered to the watershed level. CSES has: • Given numerous presentations to planning units and state staff • Developed language for use in planning • CSES is working to: • Build relationships with state staff and local planning units • Develop GIS-based maps of watershed-scale impacts WA State watershed planning issues affected by climate change (circled)

19. Work with the Media • Climate change workshop for the press, Nov. 8, 2001 (to be repeated ~2005) • Hundreds of local and national news stories featuring CSES research, researchers since ‘97 • Major Seattle PI special report on 11/13/03; 39 stories on web site • Featured in KPLU (88.5 FM) climate change series, KZOK (102.5 FM) morning show • Nate Mantua interviewed for 12/17/03 story on The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/about/cignews.shtml

20. The New CIG Web Sitehttp://www.cses.washington.edu/cig • Redesigned in spring 2004 to better serve as a planning resource • An integral component of CSES decision support and outreach efforts • Includes information on: • PNW climate and climate impacts • Forecasts and planningtools • Meetings and workshops • CIG publications

21. Increased collaboration with resource managers and other stakeholders to (but not limited to): More explicitly identify key climate-sensitive decisions and risk exposures that may benefit from new research, decision-support products Investigate how improved climate forecasts can be applied to decisions affecting salmon and coastal aquatic communities Additional Directions for Decision Support and Outreach, 2005-2010 CSES will continue to develop, maintain, and transition decision support products for PNW decision makers in 2005-2010. Outreach is an important component of that effort. Proposed outreach activities include:

22. Develop an adaptation “handbook” for public agencies Detailing the range of adaptive strategies to help agencies answer “how do we adapt to climate change?” Continue expanding, enhancing CSES web site To increase the site’s role as a decision-support resource Expand outreach to coastal, salmon, forecast sectors Using model from hydrology and water resource work to expand understanding and use of climate information GIS mapping, Live Access Server for PNW climate data Third international workshop on regional integrated assessment (2006) Provides opportunity to both share and learn from other experiences in integrated assessment Additional Directions cont’d

23. In Summary • CSES strives to help the region develop the capacity to adapt to climate variability and change via: • Basic and applied research • Development of decision-support tools • Outreach • Decision support and outreach efforts have been instrumental in developing and maintaining productive working relationships with the stakeholder community • Demand for CSES’s research and products continues to grow, and CSES will continue to respond to these demands.