Climate Adaptation in the Delaware Estuary: Results from the Climate Ready Estuaries Pilot

1. Climate Adaptation in the Delaware Estuary: Results from the Climate Ready Estuaries Pilot Danielle Kreeger, Jennifer Adkins and Priscilla Cole Partnership for the Delaware Estuary Delaware Estuary Summit January 31, 2011

2. http://www.delawareestuary.org/ science_projects_climate_ready_products.asp

3. How do we even begin to plan for climate change in a system as large and complex as the Delaware Estuary?

4. PDE Climate Ready Pilot 3 case studies How will climate change in the Delaware Estuary? How will changes impact key resources? What actions are recommended to make these resources more resilient? What if we don’t take action?

5. Climate Ready Approach Inventory Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Options Environmental Predictions Estimate Future Status and Ecosystem Services Rank Vulnerabilities and Options Sharing and Next Steps Recommendations

6. Climate Adaptation Work Group (CAWG) STAC-affiliated; Chair: Najjar Tidal Wetland Sub-group Velinsky & Kreeger Shellfish Sub-group Kreeger & Kraeuter Drinking Water Sub-group Connolly Predictions & Modeling Team Najjar $ Natural Capital Team Cole Work Groups Delaware Estuary Pilot Vulnerability and Options Future Status Rankings Recommendations

7. Temp Salinity Sea Level Rise Storms Water Habitats Living Resources Environmental Predictions Example Effects on Example Resources

8. as per Dr. Ray Najjar How Will Climate Change? Temperatures More in summer than in winter Locked in for next 30 years Precipitation More in winter than in summer More heavy events Chester Creek, PA October 1, 2010 Sea Level 0.6 - 1.5 m by 2100 (or more) local rates >> global Salinity Storms ? Growing Season

9. Tidal Marshes Bivalve Shellfish Drinking Water Case Studies Delaware Estuary Pilot Vulnerability and Options Future Status Rankings Recommendations

10. Tidal Wetlands – Why? A Signature Trait of System Near Contiguous Band Diverse: Freshwater Tidal Marshes Brackish Marshes Salt Marshes Nature’s Benefits Flood Protection Water Quality Fish and Wildlife Natural Areas Carbon Sequestration

11. Tidal Wetland Vulnerability Freshwater Tidal Marshes • Salinity Rise • Barriers to Landward Migration • Others: Tidal Range, Seasonal Drying/Wetting Salt Marshes • Sea Level Rise • Storms and Wind Wave Erosion • Barriers to Landward Migration • Others: Seasonal Wetting/Drying, Invasives

12. Table 3-3. Comparison of the effectiveness and feasibility of various potential adaptation options for addressing the main vulnerability of tidal freshwater we Table 3-3. Comparison of the effectiveness and feasibility of various potential adaptation options for addressing the main vulnerability of tidal freshwater wetlands and brackish/saltwater wetlands exposed to changing sea level, salinity, precipitation/storms, and carbon dioxide levels by 2100 in the Delaware Estuary. tlands and brackish/saltwater wetlands exposed to changing sea level, salinity, precipitation/storms, and carbon dioxide levels by 2100 in the Delaware Estuary. Tidal WetlandsVulnerability Survey & Results The Top Five….

13. Tidal Wetlands – Adaptation Options Protection of Natural Buffers Structure Setbacks Living Shorelines Strategic Retreat Managing Water Flows (salinity) Managing Sediments • Wetland Tough Choices • Where will they be converted • to open water? • Where can we save them ? • Where is strategic retreat the • best option? • Needs • Geospatial Approach • Regional Sediment Budget Linked to Tidal Wetland Ecosystem Model • LIDAR, Land Use, Modeling and Climate Monitoring Data • Assessment Methods to Prioritize Adaptation Tactics

14. Next Generation Living Shorelines Soft Armoring With Natural Communities May June September

15. What If We Don’t Take Action? >25% Loss of tidal wetlands! • Conversion of >40,000 ha Uplands to Wetlands • Conversion of >100,000 ha Wetlands to Water • Loss of Services >> Acreage Losses 2000 2000 2100

16. Tidal Marshes Bivalve Shellfish Drinking Water Case Studies Delaware Estuary Pilot Vulnerability and Options Future Status Rankings Recommendations

17. 11 Other Species of Freshwater Unionid Mussels Corbicula fluminea Elliptio complanata Rangia cuneata Mya arenaria Geukensia demissa Mytilus edulis Ensis directus Mercenaria mercenaria Crassostrea virginica Bivalves of the Delaware DRBC

18. Nature’s Benefits Bivalve Shellfish are “Ecosystem Engineers” Mussel Beds CTUIR Freshwater Mussel Project Oyster Reefs Kreeger

19. Bivalves – Issues Freshwater Mussels are Imperiled See posters, Thomas et al., Kreeger et al.

20. Patchy, Impaired Rare Extirpated Strophitus undulatus Elliptio complanata Alasmidonta heterodon Bivalve Projections – FW Mussels Shifting Species Ranges, But No Dispersal     

21. Bivalves – Issues Rutgers HSRL Oyster Disease and Salinity Susan Ford, Rutgers HSRL www.livingclassrooms.org/lbo/dermo/oyster2.jpg

22. No Help With Help Bivalve Projections – Oysters Can they be maintained until they might see better conditions? Longer Growing Season 2 Recruitment Events Intertidal Niche Expansion? Point of No Return Today 2030 2060 Historical data from Rutgers Haskin Shellfish Laboratory

23. Bivalve Projections – Ribbed Mussels Losing Marsh Habitat

24. Impacts Depend on Species and Location Freshwater Mussels: imperiled, complicated live history, cannot tolerate salinity Oysters: disease and salinity Ribbed Mussels: losing marsh habitat

25. Options for Making Shellfish More Resilient Propagate Mussels Monitoring & Research Shellplanting for Oysters • Water Quality & Flow Management Living Shorelines Riparian Restoration Fish Passage Restoration

26. What Actions Are Recommended for Shellfish?

27. What if We Don’t Act? Natural Capital at Risk

28. Biofiltration Potential Start No mussels 8 adult mussels Slide from Dick Neves, VA Tech

29. Biofiltration Potential Later No mussels 8 adult mussels Slide from Dick Neves, VA Tech

30. A Hypothetical Example… 4 billion mussels filter 30 billion cubic meters of water per year (estimated, combined biofiltration >>> freshwater flows) Filter 758 million kilograms TSS from streams annually 15% loss of biomass = 114 less kilograms TSS /yr CTUIR Freshwater Mussel Project Photo: Dick Neves, VA Tech

31. Tidal Marshes Bivalve Shellfish Drinking Water Case Studies Delaware Estuary Pilot Vulnerability and Options Future Status Rankings Recommendations

32. Drinking Water - Why? • Drinking water for >16 million • Philadelphia – 1.4 million • New York City

33. Drinking Water Vulnerabilities • Erosion of infrastructure • Obsolete Supply Systems • In direct path of flooding, storm surges, and sea level rise • Effects on Drinking Water • Degraded source water quality • Salinity Intrusion • Power Outages • Customer Supply Issues

34. Drinking Water Tough Questions • How can we maintain low salinity in the upper estuary? • Will more reservoirs be needed and where? • Where should infrastructure be protected?

35. Drinking Water – Adaptation Options Infrastructure protection Resilient Materials , Modern Upgrades Minimize water demand Water Efficiency, BMP’s New treatment & distribution system Able to with-stand inundation Prevent increased stormwater runoff Protect source water with forests & buffers Disinfection of wastewater

36. Many Other Issues Website slides are from the Delaware Shorebird Project and the Horseshoe Crab Conservation Network

37. Climate Change + Other Changes • Ecological Flows • Marcellus Shale • Spills, NRDA • Dredging Added Complexity • Withdrawals • Wind Farms • Land Use Change • Development • Emerging Pollutants

38. The Big Wild Card Storms

39. Overall Impacts • As expected, sea level rise, flooding and precipitation effects are major concerns across all case studies • However, vulnerability to salinity rise in the Delaware Estuary is somewhat unique, and especially notable because this system has the world’s largest freshwater tidal prism.

40. Take Home Messages • Not all changes to natural resources will be damaging, • but there will be many more losers than winners • Need a Paradigm Shift: Plan and “restore” for the future • rather than the past, dynamic rather than static conditions • Adaptation will require investment to protect lives and • livelihoods • Proactive investment today will save money in the long • term due to compounding of ecosystem services

41. Delaware Estuary Pilot - End -