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1. An “Evidence-Based” Investment Strategy Identifying & Implementing Policies that Improve Outcomes and Save Money: The Washington State Approach Canadian Congress on Criminal Justice Vancouver, British Columbia October 4, 2013 Steve Aos Director Washington State Institute for Public Policy Phone: (360) 586-2740 E-mail: saos@wsipp.wa.gov Institute Publications: www.wsipp.wa.gov 1 of 15

2. Washington State Institute for Public Policy • Nature of the Institute • Non-partisan, created by 1983 Legislature • General purpose legislative research unit • Projects assigned by legislative bills • Legislative & Executive Board Directions to WSIPP from the WA Legislature • What works? What doesn’t? • What are the costs & benefits of policies to improve… • Crime(1994, 1999, 2003, 2005, 2009, 2012, 2013) • Education, Early Ed(2003, 2006, 2009, 2012, 2013) • Child Abuse & Neglect (2003, 2009, 2012) • Substance Abuse(2003, 2005, 2009, 2012) • Mental Health (2005, 2009, 2012) • Health Care (2012) • Developmental Disabilities (2008) • Teen Births (1994) • Employment, Workforce Training(2009) • Public Assistance(2009) • Public Health(2009) • Housing(2009) WSIPP Capitol Olympia My House Seattle 2 of 15

3. Big Picture The ROI Numbers Application in WA Results Change in Crime Rates United States and Washington: 1980 to 2011 United States Washington Crime Rates :-45%-46% Homicide Rates: -48% -49% 3 of 15

4. Big Picture The ROI Numbers Application in WA Results Adult Prison Incarceration Rates: 1930 to 2012 *Incarceration Rate 6 United States 5 4 Washington 3 2 1 0 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 *The incarceration rate is defined as the number of inmates in prisons per 1,000 resident population in Washington or the United States. 4 of 15

5. The ROI Numbers Big Picture Application in WA Results Are There Evidence-Based Policies that Improve Outcomes with a Positive Return on Investment? Our 3-Step Research Approach • Evidence:. • What works to improve outcomes; what does not? • We analyze all rigorous evaluations on policiesto improve public outcomes of legislative interest. What is the return on investment? We compute benefits, costs, and risk to the people of Washington State using a consistent framework. • Economics: How would a combination of options affect statewide outcomes? What is the risk? • Portfolio: 5 of 15

6. The ROI Numbers Big Picture Application in WA Results WSIPP “Consumer Reports” Lists Evidence-based policy options ranked by return on investment 6 of 15

7. The ROI Numbers Big Picture Application in WA Results What Works to Reduce Crime? Change In Crime (# of EB Studies) Benefits Minus Costs, per-person, life cycle (Probability: you lose $) (Examples from our latest results) Adult Offender Programs Cog-Behavioral Treatment-7% (38)$9,283 (<1%) Drug Tx in Prison (TC or out-patient)-12% (21)$10,974 (<1%) ISP: surveillance only0% (14)-$4,718 (89%) ISP: treatment focus-14% (17)$7,295 (4%) Juvenile Offender Programs* Functional Family Therapy -22% (8)$30,706 (<1%) • We located and meta-analyzed 38rigorous outcome evaluations conducted in the United States, Canada, and UK. • We find, on average, the program reduces recidivism 7percent. • WithoutCBT, an moderate-to-high risk offender has a69%chance of being reconvicted for a new felony or misdemeanor; • WithCBT, the odds drop to about64%. • The reduced recidivism = a NET gain of$9,283per participant. • We estimate CBT, which is done in groups, costs$412per participant; benefits of reduced recidivism total$2,308totaxpayers(lower criminal justice costs) and$7,387 tocrime victims and others(reduced victimization). A total benefit-to-cost ratio of $21 to $1 • Risk: Less than 1% of the time you lose money (costs exceed benefits). • We ran the model 1,000 times testing the expected bottom line for the risk and uncertainty in our findings. MultisystemicTherapy -13% (11)$24,751 (2%) Aggression Repl. Training -20% (4)$29,740 (4%) Scared Straight+8%(10)-$9,887 (100%) Prison & Policing Police Per Capita-22% (8)$30,706 (<1%) Updated results available soon Incarceration Per Capita-13% (11)$24,751 (2%) Prevention* Pre-School* (low income)-21% (11)$14,934 (<1%) Nurse Family Partnership*-17% (3) $13,182 (20%) 7 of 15 * Programs have a number of other non-crime benefits; all benefits reported here.

8. The Numbers Overview Washington State Next Steps Outcome: Crime Program: Functional Family Therapy for Juvenile Offenders 100 Number of Slots Funded $3,300 Taxpayer Cost per Slot (net) Total Cost $330,000 Number who recidivate with a new crimeWITHOUTFFT WITHFFT Net Change 60 • We studied , carefully, how FFT is done Washington 47 - 13 • Economics: We built a model to estimate the cost of crime in Washington State • Costs to the victims of crime • Costs to the taxpayers for the criminal justice system • Other benefits of juvenile crime avoidance: education outcomes Lifetime benefits per avoided recidivist $211,000 Total Benefits $2,743,000 “Base” Population Characteristics: We gathered longitudinal information on juvenile offenders in Washington . Bottom Line: Benefits – Costs +$2,413,000 8 of 15 Functional Family Therapy

9. The ROI Numbers Big Picture Application in WA Results WSIPP “Consumer Reports” Lists Evidence-based policy options ranked by return on investment 9 of 15

10. Application in WA Overview The ROI Numbers Results Using Research to Craft Criminal Justice Policy:Washington’s Legislative Milestones 1984 Sentencing Reform 1995 Juvenile Justice → Budget Change 2000 Adult Corrections→Budget Change 2003 Prevention→Budget Change What policy portfolio reduces crime & limits prison construction? →Budget Change, Silo 2005-6 Translated the Legislature's evidence-based investments into budget drivers for prison. 2007 2012 & 2013 Evidence-based budget requirements(for juvenile justice, adult corrections, children’s mental health, child welfare, adult mental health & substance abuse). 10 of 15

11. Application in WA Overview The ROI Numbers Results • Four Evidence-Based Implementation Issues • (Things we’ve learned) • Formal Assessment Process (Tools) to align participants with the right programs, and to focus resources on higher-risk populations. • State-Funded Quality/Fidelity System to assure better adherence to the assessment system and the intervention program models. • Swift and Certain Apprehension clear evidence (for crime deterrence) for certainty, but not for severity of punishment. • Funding Formulas with the Right Incentivesto encourage interest, adherence, and innovations in evidence-based programs. 11 of 15

12. Results Big Picture The ROI Numbers Application in WA Keeping Track of Results: Prison Beds Avoided Cumulative Effect of Washington’s History of Evidence-based Programming 24,000 As of 2013, there are about 1,500 fewer people in prison as a result of Washington’s evidence-based adult, juvenile, & prevention programs. These effects are in the state prison forecast. 22,000 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 Average Daily Prison Population 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 Blue Area = Actual Prison Population Years beyond 2013 are current state forecast. Orange Area = What ADP would have been without the high ROI programs. 2,000 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Year 12 of 15

13. Results Big Picture The ROI Numbers Application in WA Trends in Adult Recidivism in Washington: 1990-2007 Annual prison release cohorts by DOC risk classification level 40% ViolentFelony Re-conviction 30% 20% 10% High, Non Violent 0% 19% High, Violent 80% AnyFelony Re-conviction(within 3 years after release) Moderate Risk 44% 70% 17% Among moderate risk offenders released from prison in 2007, 20% were reconvicted for a new felony within three years. Among moderate risk offenders released from prison in 1990, 31% were reconvicted for a new felony within three years. 60% 50% Lower Risk 20% 40% 31% 30% 20% 20% 10% 0% '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 High, Non-violent (19%) Lower Risk (20%of total prison pop) Moderate Risk (17%) High, Violent (44%) Risk Classification Level of Offenders In Prison by year of release from prison 13 of 15

14. Results Big Picture The ROI Numbers Application in WA 16 other US States are now implementing versions of the “Washington Approach” via the Results First project of the MacArthur Foundation and the Pew Charitable Trusts WA OR NY ID IA VT IL MA RI CA KS CT NM MS TX FL 14 of 15

15. Caveat • Two Goals of Criminal Justice Policy: • Crime Reduction(to achieve less crime in the future) • Justice(to address criminal wrongs done in the past) Benefit-cost and recidivism risk findings can help policymakers with the crime reduction goal, but they are pretty much silent on the justice goal. 15 of 15

16. ANNUAL CRIMINAL JUSTICE ISSUE EXCLUSIVE RATINGS Over 200 Crime–Related Programs and Policies S 2013 BEST Crime Policies to Adopt Programs programs programs that reduce crime and save taxpayers money. Institute Publications: www.wsipp.wa.gov • Reports Are Available on: • Criminal Justice • Juvenile Justice • Child Welfare • Education • Mental Health • Substance Abuse • Prevention • …More on the way taxpayer dollars

17. Thank You

18. Appendix

19. Prison is Increasingly Used for Violent Offenders Change in Average Violent Felony Risk Scores Since 1990 +35% +30% +25% +20% +15% Since 1990, the average violent felony risk score of offenders released from Washington prisons has increased more than 30%. +10% +5% +0% -5% 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year

20. Crime Rates: Violent & Property Washington and United States: 1980 to 2010 Violent Crime Rate* Property Crime Rate* 10 100 9 90 8 80 United States 7 70 Washington 60 6 50 5 40 4 30 3 Washington United States 20 2 Violent crime has dropped since the mid-1990s, and Washington’s rate remains lower than the US. Property crime rates have declined, and the gap between Washington and the US has narrowed. 10 1 0 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 * Crime rates are the number of reported crimes to police per 1,000 resident population. Source: WASPC and FBI.

21. Juvenile Arrest Rates: Closing the Gap Long-Term Trends in Juvenile Arrest Rates (1985 to 2010) 60 Washington In 1995, the Legislature First Tells WSIPP to Study Juvenile Justice! 50 40 Juvenile Arrest Rate (arrests per 1,000 10-17 year olds) 30 United States 20 • Prior to the mid-1990s, Washington’s juvenile arrest rate was consistently higher than the US rate. • The gap started to close in the mid-1990s. • Today, the two juvenile arrest rates are virtually identical. 10 0 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Year

22. DOC Risk-Level Classifications of Adult Offenders: The Timing of Recidivism in Washington State for… …a New Felony Conviction …a Violent Felony Conviction 4.0% 4.0% Classified by DOC as: High, Violent 3.5% 3.5% 3.0% 3.0% 2.5% 2.5% High, Non- Violent 2.0% 2.0% Classified by DOC as: High, Violent 1.5% 1.5% Moderate 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% Lower 0.0% 0.0% 1 1 6 6 12 12 18 18 24 24 30 30 36 36 Months After Being At-Risk in the Community Months After Being At-Risk in the Community Source: WSIPP analysis of data from the Administrative Office of the Courts and the Department of Corrections

23. If Prison Really Works If Prison Doesn’t Work Big Picture Principles Application in WA Caveat Keeping Track of Results: the Incarceration-Crime Relationship Elasticity:how a percentage change in a state’s incarceration rate leads to a percentage change in its crime rate. 75 ‘88 ‘87 1980 70 ‘86 ‘89 ‘81 65 ‘85 ‘91 ‘90 ‘92 ‘95 ‘82 ‘97 60 ‘84 ‘83 ‘94 ‘93 ‘98 Washington’s Crime Rate (non-drug crimes per 1,000 pop) ‘96 55 • Key Development: • The long-term link between incarceration and crime in WA appears to have changed, favorably, around 2006. • Crime is now falling without expensive increases in incarceration rates. • Better public policies have had a role in the improved results. ‘04 ‘03 ‘05 ‘99 50 ‘00 ‘02 2006 ‘01 45 2007 2010 2008 40 2009 2011 35 Each data point is that year's incarceration rate and crime rate. 30 1 2 3 4 Washington’s Incarceration Rate (ADP per 1,000 pop) 5 of 14

24. The ROI Numbers Big Picture Application in WA Results Evidence-Based Community Supervision of Adult Offenders:Three Findings from WSIPP Research Reviews Intensive Supervision: Surveillance-Oriented (14)* Intensive Supervision: Treatment-Oriented (17)* Supervision: Focused on Risk, Treatment, & Response (6)* Change in Criminal Recidivism +1% -10% ($1.93 b/c) -16% ($6.83 b/c) *The number of high-quality research studies on which this finding is based. 5 of 12

25. The ROI Numbers Big Picture Application in WA Results Evidence-Based Polcies that Reduce Crime and Save Money: —four principles that improve the odds of success— • Risk • More crime can be avoided when policies focus on higher-risk (rather than lower-risk) offender populations. • Treatment (delivered with fidelity) • Benefit-cost evidence indicates that some policies work and others do not. Careful selection and implementation needed. • Swift and Certain Apprehension/Punishment • Clear evidence (for crime deterrence) for certainty, but not for severity of punishment. • Budget Drivers (aka: incentives) • Deliver savings to taxpayers by tying policies to budget drivers (e.g. fiscal notes & caseloads); incentive funding formulas. 5 of 12