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CBRFC April 2010 Water Supply Webinar

CBRFC April 2010 Water Supply Webinar. PLEASE MUTE YOUR PHONES. 10am, May 7, 2010 Kevin Werner. These slides: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/present/present.php. Outline. April Weather Review Snow States Weather / Climate forecast Water Supply Forecasts Peak Flow Forecasts.

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CBRFC April 2010 Water Supply Webinar

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  1. CBRFCApril 2010Water Supply Webinar PLEASE MUTE YOUR PHONES 10am, May 7, 2010 Kevin Werner These slides: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/present/present.php

  2. Outline • April Weather Review • Snow States • Weather / Climate forecast • Water Supply Forecasts • Peak Flow Forecasts Web Reference: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/wsup/pub2/map/html/cbrfc.3.2009.html

  3. Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/precip/qpe/mapsum/mapsum.cgi??cbrfc?M?2009?02

  4. Snow: Apr 6 (above) May 6 (right) Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapm.php?scon=checked

  5. Snow: Upper Green Basin (above Flaming Gorge) Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/station/sweplot/sweplot.cgi???open

  6. Snow:Colorado Mainstem (above Cameo) Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/station/sweplot/sweplot.cgi???open

  7. Snow:San Juan Basin Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/station/sweplot/sweplot.cgi???open

  8. Snow:Bear River Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/station/sweplot/sweplot.cgi???open

  9. Snow:Six Creeks in Salt Lake County Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/station/sweplot/sweplot.cgi???open

  10. Snow:Lower Colorado Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/station/sweplot/sweplot.cgi???open

  11. Web Reference: Waterwatch.usgs.gov

  12. Last 5 days… Web Reference: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge2/RFC_Precip/

  13. Forecast Precipitation • Dry for the weekend • Storm pattern expected for early next week for northern half of basin. Web Reference: www.hpc.noaa.gov

  14. Forecast Precipitation:Next Week’s Storm Storm pattern centered on Monday / Tuesday (May 10-11). Total precipitation amounts up to 1.5 inches

  15. El Nino Update Web Reference: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov and iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO

  16. Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/climate/climoForecasts.cgi

  17. May 1, 2010 • Water Supply Forecasts • Highlights: • Some improvement particularly in northern Great Basin, parts of Green and upper Colorado • Improvements on the order of 5-10% from April storm activity • Gunnison, San Juan, and southern Great Basin essentially unchanged from April Web Reference: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapm.php?wcon=checked

  18. Web Reference: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapm.php?wcon=checked

  19. Web Reference: waterwatch.usgs.gov

  20. Web Reference: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapm.php?wcon=checked and waterwatch.usgs.gov

  21. Web Reference: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapm.php?wcon=checked and Waterwatch.usgs.gov

  22. Web Reference: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapm.php?wcon=checked

  23. Web Reference: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapm.php?wcon=checked

  24. Lake Powell SWE vs Inflow • Below is a scatter plot of the % average of the snow water equivalent for this index for April 7 and the % average of the April-July volumes for the years 1987-2009. As you can see by the diagonal line, the snow index is not necessarily a good indicator of run-off volume. In fact, as the % average snow decreases the resulting volume becomes much less. This is likely due to losses such as sublimation, evaporation, and bank storage which can become more pronounced in drier years. Our ESP model (see below) takes these, and other hydrologic factors, into consideration. Plugging this year’s current index value into the equation gives a result of 62%, or 4.9 maf.

  25. Web Reference: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapm.php?wcon=checked and waterwatch.usgs.gov

  26. Web Reference: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapm.php?wcon=checked and waterwatch.usgs.gov

  27. Online Publication Web Reference: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/wsup/pub2/map/html/cpub.php

  28. May 1, 2010 • Peak Flow Forecasts • Still in development • Coming Soon (probably later today) • Low flood risk potential in upper basin • Likely peak flows have increased (up to ~15%) since April • Weather patterns over the next month will greatly influence actual peak flows Web Reference: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapm.php?pcon=checked

  29. Web Reference: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapm.php?pcon=checked

  30. Email Updates: Automatic email update customized to what you need. http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/wsup/govdelivery.html

  31. More Resources • www.cbrfc.noaa.gov • Wateroutlook.nwrfc.noaa.gov • Podcast versions of webinars available (CBRFC homepage -> podcasts • Tentative June water supply & peak flow webinar: 1pm June 7 • Separate Peak Flow Forecast webinar as required or requested • 2010 forecast verification webinar and 2011 look ahead webinars will be scheduled in October / November

  32. CBRFC Open House • Objective: Improve understanding / communication of forecast process and forecast usage • August 18, 2010 • Lower Basin Focused section: Aug 19 • Upper Basin Focused section: Aug 17 • Salt Lake City, UT • More details to come • www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/wsup/openhouse.html

  33. Kevin Werner CBRFC Service Coordination Hydrologist Phone: 801.524.5130 Email: kevin.werner@noaa.gov Feedback, Questions, Concerns always welcome….

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