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CBRFC Water Supply Training

CBRFC Water Supply Training. Goals. Review methodologies and procedures Increase consistency between forecasters Improve understanding of basin hydrology. Agenda. Oct 9: Verification / Climate Correlations. Nov 4: Procedures. Nov 5: Forecast Tools. Nov 12: Basin Project Reports.

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CBRFC Water Supply Training

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  1. CBRFC Water Supply Training

  2. Goals • Review methodologies and procedures • Increase consistency between forecasters • Improve understanding of basin hydrology

  3. Agenda Oct 9: Verification / Climate Correlations Nov 4: Procedures Nov 5: Forecast Tools Nov 12: Basin Project Reports

  4. Oct 9: Verification / Climate Correlations • Overview and General Discussion • Verification – Kevin and Lisa (2 hours) • New Capabilities • Basin Assignment • Climate Correlations – Bill (1/2 hour) • Climate Correlation demo – Kevin and Drew (1/2 hour)

  5. Nov 4: Procedures • Water supply procedure list – Brenda / Greg • Basin documentation: best practices and baseline template – Greg • Data gathering: obtaining data, processing data, database, shef coding – Brenda • Coordination with NRCS and WFOs – Brenda • Product Dissemination: ESGs, publications, western water, email – Greg

  6. Nov 5: Forecast Tools • SWS theory – Kevin • SWS practical – Steve • ESP and XEFS – Kevin • ESPADP – Greg • ESP and ESPADP batch - John

  7. Nov 12: Basin Project Reports • Verification and climate assignment results: • Great Basin – Brent • Green Basin – Bill • Upper Colorado – Brenda • San Juan + Gunnison – Tracy • Lower Colorado – Greg • Overall discussion: How do we come up with our number?

  8. Format • Formal talks • Open discussion • “Homework” assingment • Interesting and fun

  9. Opportunity #1: Important Forecast Program

  10. Opportunity #2: CBRFC Control • Unlike many other most NWS programs, CBRFC has near total freedom over forecast procedures, services, etc: • 1940s – CBRFC established for water supply forecasting • 1990s – SWS developed at CBRFC • Major opportunity for prototyping concepts for other NWS programs

  11. Opportunity #3: ESP • “Many irrigation interests, reservoir operators, and other water management agencies now possess sufficient sophistication to demand and efficiently utilize water supply forecasts of a probabilistic nature for a variety of time periods.” • Twedt, et al, 1977 • “ESP is a valuable tool when used as part of an operational decision support system for water management. The probabilistic information allows decision makers to incorporate risk into operational decisions.” • -WARFS Demonstration Report, 1994 • “Now that I’ve been using ESP to support decisions in my operations, I cannot imagine not using it” • paraphrasing a water manager in 2008

  12. Opportunity #4: Verification • “You guys keep telling me how you make your forecasts and how great they are, but you’ve never shown me anything that proves it.” • Anonymous customer, 2008 • New verification capabilities this year (THANKS LISA!) will allow the first ever objective and robust treatment of this question.

  13. More Opportunities • NIDIS • Interaction with research community

  14. New Paradigms? SWS ESP NRCS Forecaster User

  15. New Paradigms? ESP & XEFS NRCS VIPER SWS ESP NRCS Forecaster Forecaster User User

  16. Discussion • What areas of the forecast process would you like more explanation? • Where do you see opportunities for improvement? • Is there information or support that you’re not getting that would help you? • Is there too much information?

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