The Effects-Based Approach and Effects-Based Operations

1. The Effects-Based ApproachandEffects-Based Operations Presentation to ISMOR 30 Aug 05 Lt Col Jim Potts Joint Doctrine and Concepts Centre

2. Effects-Based Approach ‘An Effects-Based Approach involves the comprehensive, integrated application of all instruments of Alliance power, both military and non-military, to create campaign Effects which achieve desired outcomes.’ NATO Bi-Strategic Command Strategic Vision • Longer term view of strategic change • Focus upon Outcomes to address causes • Complementary approach to Situations

4. Effects-Based Already doing Effects? Afghanistan

5. Effects-Based Already doing Effects? Sierra Leone

6. Presentation Aim • It is an approach not a doctrinal strait-jacket Need for simplicity and preserve place of intuition • Logical development of Manoeuvrist Approach • Support systems and processes yet to be developed • Everybody’s business; Multinational, Joint and Inter-Agency

7. Beware confusing Effects and Actions – Effects are the results of actions All Combat Operations have an ‘EFFECT’

8. Effects The physical or cognitive consequence(s) at any level within the Strategic Environment of one or more military or non-military actions. • Effects can be: • Primary or Subsequent (second, third order etc) • Intended or unintended • Desired or undesired • Decisive/Enabling • Applied to friendly, adversary or neutral parties

12. Three Block War ‘In one moment in time our service members will be feeding and clothing displaced refugees - providing humanitarian assistance. In the next moment, they will be holding two warring tribes apart - peacekeeping. Finally, they will be fighting a highly lethal mid-intensity battle. All in the same day, all within three city blocks.’ Gen C C Krulak Comdt USMC 2000

13. Dimensions Legal, Ethical & Moral Social & Cultural Economic Political Technological Military (Recognised Operational Picture) Physical (Recognised Environmental Picture) The Strategic Environment

14. Diplomatic Line of Operation End State Military End State Economic EBO: Military Operations within a Wider Context

15. Effects-Based Approach • Exposes complexity • Causal linkages • Includes non-military lines of operation • Better identification of actions to achieve Effects • Better orchestration of actions • Leading to greater synergy of Effects and • Better mitigation of undesired Effects • Addresses both physical and cognitive domains • Influence will, shape perceptions • Adversaries, neutrals and allies • Focus decision-makers

16. Effects-Based Approach • Applicable at the strategic, operational and tactical levels • Supports enduring outcomes • In-depth understanding of the environment – Risk analysis

17. US DfID FCO Etc US FR Etc US FR FR Home Office MOD Etc US FR Etc US FR Treasury Etc NGO PMC Commercial Company NGO PMC Commercial Company NGO PMC Commercial Company NGO PMC Commercial Company Greater chance of success Comprehensive Approach

18. Comprehensive Approach

19. The Manoeuvrist Approach Attacking enemy will and cohesion and…

20. ‘Until now they have refused to do battle with us. They are just going places.’ Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf Government of Iraq Information Minister ….avoiding his strengths.

22. Effects-Based Approach to Operations • Analyse • Plan • Execute • Assess

23. - Understand the Strategic Environment - Information gathering - long term - Real-time monitoring - short term Effects-Based Approach to Operations Analysis

24. Analysis - Implications • Need to understand consequences • First, second, third order • Desired and undesired • Cumulative • Cultural understanding

25. Cultural Intelligence ‘We needed cultural intelligence going in. We needed to understand how the cultures tick, who makes the decisions, what things are taboo, what things are more acceptable. We go in and apply western logic and a western culture approach and we always miss the boat. We need a strong sense of how to operate within their framework and a need to understand how they operate.’ General Anthony Zinni

26. - Identify coherent physical and cognitive Effects (including undesired) - Identify Actions to achieve Effects Effects-Based Approach to Operations Analysis Planning

27. Planning - Implications • Collaborative planning across the JTF and Components • Inter-agency • How to influence non-military actors?

28. - Collaborative orchestration of activity to realise desired Effects Effects-Based Approach to Operations Analysis Execution Planning

29. Execution - Implications • Integrated Joint Fires • Liaison • Mil - mil • Mil - non mil • Direct Influence

30. Measure success of Actions • - Establish progress towards Strategic Aim Effects-Based Approach to Operations Assessment Analysis Execution Planning

31. Assessment - Implications • Measures of Effectiveness • Articulation of required Effects • Active, coherent information gathering

32. Effects-Based Approach to Operations Assessment Analysis Execution Planning Parallel Processes/Activities

33. Obj 3 Obj 1 Obj 2 Effects - Relationships The Strategic Aim is attained by achieving one or more Objectives. Strategic Aim

34. Effect 2 Effect 1 Effect 3 Effects - Relationships An Objective is achieved by an aggregation of Effects Objective

35. Effects - Relationships Conduct an Action in order that an Effect is realised Effect Action

36. E E E E A A A A A A A A A E A A E E E E A A Effects - Relationships

37. Strategic Aim Obj Obj Obj Strategic Level E E E E E E As Obj Obj E E E E E E Operational Level A A A A Obj Obj E E E E E E E Tactical Level A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A Effects - Relationships

38. Effects Development Plan • Draw together disparate strands of development • Identify and implement other work • Establish an Integrated Analysis and Experimentation Campaign Plan (IAECP) • Align with Multi-national developments

39. Analytical Concept • Optimal execution is reliant upon technical enablers • Network Enabled Capability • Knowledge Databases • Predictive Tools • Models to replicate complex human-based systems • Analytical Concept – Full Capability 2015+ • Assessment and Analysis activities • Varying levels of development • Planning and Execution • Iterative Development

40. Joint Doctrine Note • Lt Col Simon Scott RM - JDCC/PJHQ Liaison • JDN 01/05 • Provides Interim (Short-Term) Guidance • Strategic, Operational, and Tactical Interface • Publication Sep 05 • Longer-term: Revise JDP 01, JWPs 2, 3 and 5 • Autumn 06?

41. Summary: EBA – A Way of Thinking • Longer term view of strategic change • Comprehensive Approach to Situations • Focus upon Outcomes • It is an approach not a doctrinal strait-jacket • Does not replace Tasks and Purpose • Complementary to the Manoeuvrist Approach • Support systems and processes yet to be developed • Everybody’s business; Multinational, Joint and Inter-Agency

42. Summary: EBA – A Way of Thinking • Longer term view of strategic change • Comprehensive Approach to Situations • Focus upon Outcomes • It is an approach not a doctrinal strait-jacket • Does not replace Tasks and Purpose • Complementary to the Manoeuvrist Approach • Support systems and processes yet to be developed • Everybody’s business; Multinational, Joint and Inter-Agency

43. Questions?