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Seasonal outlooks for hydrology and water resources: streamflow, reservoir, and hydropower forecasts for the Pacific No

Seasonal outlooks for hydrology and water resources: streamflow, reservoir, and hydropower forecasts for the Pacific Northwest . Andy Wood and Alan Hamlet Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering for Climate and Water Resource Forecasts for the 2007 Water Year

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Seasonal outlooks for hydrology and water resources: streamflow, reservoir, and hydropower forecasts for the Pacific No

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  1. Seasonal outlooks for hydrology and water resources: streamflow, reservoir, and hydropower forecasts for the Pacific Northwest Andy Wood and Alan Hamlet Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering for Climate and Water Resource Forecasts for the 2007 Water Year UW Climate Impacts Group October 3, 2006, Kelso, WA

  2. Part I West Wide Hydrologic Forecast System

  3. Experimental W. US Hydrologic Forecast System Snowpack Initial Condition Soil Moisture Initial Condition

  4. Experimental Western US Hydrologic Forecast System Multiple Seasonal Climate Forecast Data Sources CCA NOAA CAS OCN CPC Official Outlooks SMLR CA NCEP CFS VIC Hydrology Model NASA NSIPP/GMAO dynamical model ESP ENSO UW ENSO/PDO

  5. recently observed meteorological data ensemble of met. data to generate forecast Spin-up ICs Forecast obs hydrologic state Hydrologic Model-based Forecasting

  6. monthly hydrographs targeted statistics e.g., runoff volumes spatial forecast maps

  7. Clicking the stream flow forecast map also accesses current basin-averaged conditions Applications: streamflow Introduction Flow location maps give access to monthly hydrograph plots, and also to raw forecast data.

  8. Soil Moisture for last 2 weeks The daily update of surface conditions enables animationed views of recent changes

  9. Soil moisture change in last month Other views of changing hydrologic conditions www.hydro.washington.edu/ forecast/monitor/

  10. WY 2007 Forecast

  11. The PNW hydrologic cycle Average annual water cycle • soil moisture near annual low • runoff near low • nearly all water year precipitation yet to come • snow season not really underway • evaporation not a factor PNW Where we are now on average

  12. The PNW hydrologic cycle Note that there is variability in soil moisture now… • water balance current

  13. Oct. 1 Soil Moisture Comparison THIS YEAR LAST YEAR THIS YEAR

  14. Sep 1 ESP / ESP-El Nino fcst: Summer Volumes Forecasts of April-September Flow ESP ESP - El Nino Dalles: 100 / 88

  15. Sep 1 ESP / ESP-El Nino fcst: Summer Volumes Forecasts of April-September Flow ESP ESP - El Nino Snake: 96 / 83

  16. Sep 1 ESP / ESP-El Nino fcst: Summer Volumes Forecasts of April-September Flow ESP ESP - El Nino Upper Snake: 95 / 83

  17. Recap of WY 2006

  18. Recap WY2006, Dec. 1 hydrologic conditions Soil Moisture SWE

  19. Recap WY2006, Jan. 1 hydrologic conditions

  20. Recap WY2006, Feb. 1 hydrologic conditions

  21. Recap WY2006, Mar. 1 hydrologic conditions

  22. Recap WY2006, Apr. 1 hydrologic conditions

  23. Recap WY2006, May. 1 hydrologic conditions

  24. Recap WY2006, Jul. 1 hydrologic conditions

  25. Winter 2005-06:seasonal volume forecast for APR-SEP flow OBS Forecasts made on 1st of Month

  26. Winter 2005-06:seasonal volume forecast for APR-SEP flow OBS Forecasts made on 1st of Month

  27. Part II ENSO/PDO Forecasts

  28. ENSO is typically very stable from Oct-Jan

  29. Evaluation of Sept 1 ECMWF Nino3.4 Forecast for WY 2003-2005 WY 2003 WY 2004 WY 2005

  30. Evaluation of Aug 1 ECMWF Nino3.4 Forecast for WY 2006 Used range: Jan3.4 >= -0.4 Jan3.4 <= 0.6

  31. Ensemble Streamflow Forecast for the Columbia River at The Dalles for WY 2006. (Nino3.4 anomalies between -0.4 and 0.6) Black = Climatological Extremes Gray = Forecast Ensemble Members Red = Observed Blue = Ensemble Mean Naturalized Flow (cfs) Nino3.4 -0.4 to 0.6

  32. Natural Flows at Milner 1928-1989

  33. Natural Streamflow (KAF) Red = long term mean Blue = ensemble mean Gray = ensemble members Black = range of observations WY 2006

  34. System Storage Forecast from SnakeSim: Jackson Lake Palisades Island Park Ririe American Falls Lake Walcott Nino3.4 anomaly between -0.4 and 0.6 C Demand aligned with water cond. October 1 Spin Up Active Reservoir Storage (kaf) Obs. System Storage Oct 8, 2006

  35. Ensemble Streamflow Forecast for the Columbia River at The Dalles for WY 2006. (Nino3.4 anomalies between 0.0 and 0.6) Black = Climatological Extremes Gray = Forecast Ensemble Members Red = Observed Blue = Ensemble Mean Naturalized Flow (cfs) Nino3.4 0.0 to 0.6

  36. WY 2007 Forecast

  37. http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/seasonal/forecast/plumes/http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/seasonal/forecast/plumes/

  38. Natural Flows at Milner 1928-1989

  39. 2007 Forecast for Natural Flow at Milner Milner 2007 Nino3.4 Range 0.7 to 1.5 Natural Flow (KAF) Red = long term mean Blue = ensemble mean Gray = ensemble members Black = range of observations

  40. 2007 Forecast for Natural Flow at Milner Milner 2007 Nino3.4 Range 0.7 to 1.5 Warm PDO Natural Flow (KAF) Red = long term mean Blue = ensemble mean Gray = ensemble members Black = range of observations

  41. 2007 System Storage Forecasts for the Upper Snake (Oct-Aug) Full Full Upper Snake Storage (KAF) Upper Snake Storage (KAF) Nino3.4 Range 0.7 to 1.5 Nino3.4 Range Warm PDO

  42. Ensemble Streamflow Forecast for the Columbia River at The Dalles for WY 2007. (Nino3.4 anomalies between 0.7 and 1.5) Black = Climatological Extremes Gray = Forecast Ensemble Members Red = LTM from 1950-1999 Blue = Ensemble Mean Modified Flow (cfs)

  43. Long-Range Ensemble Forecasts of System-Wide Columbia Basin Hydropower Production for Water Year 2007. Nino3.4 Composite All Years (‘60-’99)

  44. Summary of Ensemble Average Hydropower Production for All Years (‘60-’99) Vs. Nino3.4 Composite Nino3.4 composite is about 7% lower

  45. Regionally Averaged Cool Season Precipitation Anomalies PRECIP

  46. Selected References on Compositing Techniques: Hamlet, A.F., Lettenmaier, D.P., 1999: Columbia River Streamflow Forecasting Based on ENSO and PDO Climate Signals, ASCE J. of Water Res. Planning and Mgmt., 125 (6) : 333-341 Werner, K., Brandon, D., Clark, M., et al., 2004: Climate index weighting schemes for NWS ESP-based seasonal volume forecasts, J. of Hydrometeorology, 5 (6): 1076-1090

  47. Conclusions: The WY 2006 ESP forecast predicted a range of flows centered around near normal conditions. Actual flows in 2006 were towards the upper range of this forecast, probably due in part to an unusually large ENSO forecast error. A moderate warm ENSO event is expected for the winter of 2006-2007. ESP traces from 1960-1999 associated with a forecasted range of Nino3.4 anomalies from 0.7-1.5 suggest elevated drought risks for WY 2007, and lower carryover storage in the upper Snake at the end of WY 2007.

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