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Goal

Aging Out of Foster Care - Where the Numbers Are Headed and Why? Fred Wulczyn and Linda Collins Center for State Foster Care and Adoption Data. Goal. Look forward in time to answer the question: Will recent trends in the number of youth aging out continue? What can we say about why?.

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Goal

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  1. Aging Out of Foster Care - Where the Numbers Are Headed and Why?Fred Wulczyn and Linda CollinsCenter for State Foster Care and Adoption Data

  2. Goal Look forward in time to answer the question: Will recent trends in the number of youth aging out continue? What can we say about why?

  3. Approach • Support from AECF and JCYOI • 15 states from the state data center • Observed data from 2002 to 2008 (7 years) • 5 year projection – 2009 to 2013 • Statistical model • Compared the model to what was observed • Used that model for the projection

  4. Inputs • Number of children and youth in care by age • Number of admissions by age • Time in care by age (median) Plus • Baseline number of children aging out

  5. Admission Trends

  6. Length of Time in Care

  7. Children and Youth in Care by Age

  8. Youth Aging Out - Baseline

  9. Projection – Youth Aging Out

  10. Conclusion Decline is (very) likely Results differ by state and within states Urban/rural differences may be especially important Admission trends are the driver Unmeasured attributes of youth are important

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