ESPON Workshop at the Open Days Brussels, 5 October 2010

1. ESPON Workshop at the Open Days Brussels, 5 October 2010 Cooperation: the benefits of cooperating across internal and external borders DEMIFER: Demographic and migratory flows affecting European regions and cities Phil Rees, School of Geography, University of Leeds

2. The DEMIFER transnational project team • NIDI (co-ordinator) (The Hague, Netherlands) • Joop de Beer, Nicole van der Gaag, Rob van der Erf, Peter Ekamper • UNVIE (Vienna, Austria) • Heinz Fassmann, Ramon Bauer • IOM/CEFMR (Warsaw, Poland) • Marek Kupiszewski, Dorota Kupiszewska • Nordregio (Stockholm, Sweden) • Daniel Rauhut, Joanna Roto, Susan Brocket, Jonathan Metzger, Lisa van Well • University of Leeds (Leeds, United Kingdom) • Phil Rees, Peter Boden, Adam Dennett, John Stillwell, Martyna Jasinska • NEAA (The Hague, Netherlands) • Andries de Jong, Mark ter Veer • CNR (Rome, Italy) • Frank Heins, Corrado Bonafazi, Giuseppe Gesano

3. Aims of the DEMIFER project

4. Tasks in the DEMIFER project • Assembly of a database • Analysis of demographic regimes • A summary typology • Analysis of future mortality • Analysis of future fertility • Analysis of internal, inter-state, extra-Europe migration • Analysis of labour force participation rates • Reference scenarios • Policy scenarios • Population projections using a multi-regional model • Analysis of the older population • Assessment of impact of policy scenarios on regional competitiveness and regional cohesion • Case studies of processes in selected regions

5. Data availability at the NUTS2 level

6. Estimated migration flows between selected EU countries, 2006 (1,000s)

7. Monitoring regional population dynamics Total Fertility Rate, 2005 NUTS2 Regions

8. Monitoring regional population dynamics Life expectancy 2004, NUTS2 regions,

9. Monitoring regional population dynamics Annual net migration rate, 2000-2006 , NUTS2 regions Within London 2008 Between London and Rest of UK 2008 Between London and Rest of World 2008

10. Monitoring regional population dynamics Share of the population aged 65 years and older, NUTS2 regions

11. Demographic Typology of NUTS2 Regions

12. Projection model: migration structures

13. MULTIPOLES projection model features • Population projection model handles 31 countries and 287 NUTS2 regions • Age groups extended to 100+ • For each scenario, indicators for fertility, mortality, internal migration, inter-country migration, extra-European immigration, extra-European emigration are input • Projected population by age and sex and, applying labour force participation rates, projected economically active population

14. DEMIFER reference scenarios • Population base ~ 2005 with demographic rates/flows for period around 2005, e.g. 2003-7 • Three reference scenarios: • Status quo projection • No migration projection (natural increase only) • Free movement within Europe but no extra-Europe migration

15. DEMIFER Policy Scenarios

16. Methods for scenarios: mortality Growing Social Europe Expanding Market Europe Standardized Mortality Ratio Life expectancy 150 85 100 75 65 50 2000 2050 2000 2050 Challenged Market Europe Limited Social Europe Top Regions Europe Bottom Regions

17. Life expectancy at birth, males, 2002-2004, NUTS2 regions

18. Standardised Mortality Ratios, NUTS2 regions with a Europe standard

19. Results • Here we provide just a flavour of our results from the Final Report and one of the Deliverables: D7 Regional Population Dynamics (Leeds and NEAA)

20. The bottom and top of the growth league

21. The contribution of the case studies • Aims of the case studies are: • • how are demographic and migratory flows affecting the entire • case study area, its regional subdivisions and its cities? • • how do demographic change and migratory movements bring • about population change – growth or decline –, population ageing and • ageing of the working age population? • • what are the factors of attraction or the causes of interregional • and international migration at the regional level? • • what are the economic and social consequences of migratory • flows in the case study area, or, more in general, what are the links • between ‘demography’ and ‘economy’ in the case study areas? • The focus of the case studies is on the description of the socio-demographic • structure, demographic and interregional and international • migratory processes and their economic and social consequences. The • sustainability of the demographic system and the migration process – • migration gains and losses - at the sub-regional level are considered.

22. What happens if the demographic regime stays the same

23. Population change under the four policy scenarios

24. Percentage change in the Old Age Dependency Ratio

25. Conclusions • Our final report and deliverables have been submitted to the ESPON Co-ordinating Unit on 30 September • The reports will be published, all being well, by the ESPON C-U • We will develop published papers from each deliverable which will be peer reviewed • We will put together a book proposal for Ashgate’s International Population Series • Our results are already being used by: • DG Regio in the preparation of the new Regions 2020 Strategy • The ESPON project on Climate Change • Tony Champion of Newcastle University in analysis of population redistribution • The DG Regio project Regions 2020, the Demographic Challenge