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SASSI Afghanistan to 2014 and Beyond Ask and Task 7-8 February 2013 Pakistan’s role

SASSI Afghanistan to 2014 and Beyond Ask and Task 7-8 February 2013 Pakistan’s role. THE CONTEXT. THE THREAT. ASSUMPTIONS. ASSUMPTIONS. PAKISTAN - AFGHANISTAN. Mechanism-Afghanistan. PAKISTANI PRIORITIES. Stable and Peaceful Pakistan Stable and Peaceful Afghanistan.

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SASSI Afghanistan to 2014 and Beyond Ask and Task 7-8 February 2013 Pakistan’s role

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  1. SASSIAfghanistan to 2014 and Beyond Ask and Task7-8 February 2013Pakistan’s role

  2. THE CONTEXT THE THREAT

  3. ASSUMPTIONS

  4. ASSUMPTIONS

  5. PAKISTAN - AFGHANISTAN Mechanism-Afghanistan

  6. PAKISTANI PRIORITIES • Stable and Peaceful Pakistan • Stable and Peaceful Afghanistan. • De-link Afghan problem from the Phustoon, Non-Phustoon debate to organized Crime and Terrorism Theatre. • India – Pakistan stability and regional arms control agreement’. • Stop select Kinetic Operations under CIA Lead privatization of Military Operations • Controlling the Drug issue • The Afghan Refugees. • Border control mechanism ensured. • International commitment to Afghan peace. • Sustainable economic mechanism for Pakistan named Afghanistan. • The war in Afghanistan has not been won by the US or the coalition. • It is unlikely to change in the near future. • Military strategy cannot dominate Economic, Political and Social Engagement. • Select Kinetic Operations are counter productive without the presence of ground troop ration one to eleven. • Majority is isolated from the Peace Process. • Issue of CIVILIAN CASULATIES

  7. MECHANISM - AFGHANISTAN MECHANISM - AFGHANISTAN

  8. ENVIRONMENT

  9. ENVIRONMENT LOSS

  10. MILITARY CASUALTIES GAINS • Total Casualties - 13807

  11. EFFECTIVENESS OF ISAF OPERATIONS

  12. BADAKHSHAN JOUZJAN KUNDUZ BALKH TAKHAR FARYAB SAMANGAN BAGHLAN SAR-E-PUL PANJSHER NURISTAN BADGHIS KUNAR BAMIAN KAPISA PARWAN HERAT WARDAK KABUL NANGARHAR GHOWR DAIKUNDI LOGAR PAKTIA KHOST GHAZNI URUZGAN FARAH PAKTIKA ZABUL KANDAHAR HELMAND NIMRUZ TB AREAS OF INFLUENCE IMU HIA (GB) LAGHMAN HQN Amarat-e-Islami Afghanistan

  13. POPULATION 17.33 Mn • AREA 101,741 SQ KMs • Literacy Rate 35.41 % KPK 2611 FATA km PUNJAB BALOCHISTAN SINDH

  14. ROUTES : PAK-AFGHAN BORDER BADAKSHAN MINTAKA CHITRAL NURISTAN KPK KUNAR AFGHANISTAN NANGARHAR PESHAWAR PAKTIA KHYBER 2611 km KHOWST PAKTIKA NWA BANNU ZABUL SWA KANDAHAR GOMAL R ZHOB CHAMAN NIMROZ HELMAND QUETTA BALOCHISTAN RABAT NAUSHKI 14 NOK KUNDI

  15. BORDER VIOLATIONS 2010-2012

  16. COMPROMISE ON REST / RETROFIT THEORY 507,000 REALITY 507,000 HUGE IMPACT ON RETROFIT/ REST

  17. EMPLOYMENT OF PAKISTAN ARMY EMPLOYMENT OF PAKISTAN ARMYSILENT SURGE OPERATIONS CONDUCTED (2002-2012) 91% since 2007 • Large Size operations (Corps level) - 2 • Major Operations (Brigade & above) - 242 • Minor Operations - 648 • Cordon & Search Operations - 6420

  18. CHITRAL NOORISTAN DIR KUNAR BAJAUR BAJAUR Area 1290 Sq Km Population 0.60 Mn Troops: 8,450 MOHMAND KABUL NANGARHAR MOHMAND Area 2300 Sq Km Population 0.35 Mn Troops: 8,260 KYBER KURRAM ORAKZAI ISLAMABAD KHYBER Area 2576 Sq Km Population 0.76 Mn Troops: 6,150 PAKTIA PAKTIKA ORAKZAI Area 1538 Sq Km Population 0.24 Mn Troops: 6,250 NWA KANDAHAR KURRAM Area 3380 Sq Km Population 0.47 Mn Troops: 9,550 SWA NWA Area 4707 Sq Km Population 0.38 Mn Troops: 23,160 SWA Area 6619 Sq Km Population 0.43 Mn Troops: 32,997

  19. WHERE WE WERE – APRIL 09 Northern Areas Chitral Afghanistan Nuristan Kohistan Swat Kunar Dir Shangla Dir Battagram Mingora Bajaur Kabul Malakand Buner River Kabul Mohmand Mansehra Mardan Charsadda Abbottabad Sawabi Haripur Peshawar Nowshera Khyber Parachinar Orakzai Islamabad Darra Adam Khel Kurram Kohat Hangu Karak Mir Ali Miran Shah Bannu Pakistan Razmak Ladha Lakki Marwat • LEGEND • GOVT CONTROL • CONTESTED CONTROL • TERRORISTS CONTROL Jandola Tank Wana Tank River Indus S Waziristan DI Khan 20

  20. WHERE WE ARE – JANUARY 12 Northern Areas Chitral Afghanistan Nuristan Kohistan Swat Kunar Dir Shangla Mingora Bajaur Battagram Kabul River Kabul Malakand Buner Mohmand Mansehra Mardan Charsadda Abbottabad Sawabi Peshawar Haripur Nowshera Khyber Parachinar Islamabad Orakzai Kurram Darra Adam Khel Kohat Hangu Karak Mir Ali Miran Shah Pakistan N Waziristan Bannu Razmak Lakki Marwat Ladha • LEGEND • GOVT CONTROL • CONTESTED CONTROL • TERRORISTS CONTROL Jandola Wana Tank S Waziristan River Indus DI Khan 21

  21. GREEN OVER BLUE INCIDENTS

  22. GREEN OVER BLUE INCIDENTS

  23. ANA GROWTH PROGRESS Estimate based on overall strength reduction Current attrition rates projected at 24%, translate to a loss of 46,500 soldiers annually. The attrition yields a financial deficit due to forced recruitment/ training expenditure of inducting additional troops to make up the strength depletion

  24. ANA • High rate of growth and force integration. • National purpose-- coin? • Unit efficiency and causality rate. • Uncertain funding increased foreign dependency. • Uncertain militant solvency. • Umbalanced ethnic integration • 46500 per year is high number by all measure.

  25. CURRENT SECURITY ASSESSMENT

  26. CURRENT SECURITY ASSESSMENT

  27. CURRENT SECURITY ASSESSMENT

  28. CIVILIAN CASUALTIES 3606 (June 11) Data for 2012 is upto the month of June

  29. IED ATTACKS – 2010/ 2011

  30. RISK ASSESSMENT – 2012 UZBEKISTAN TAJIKISTAN TURKMENISTAN CHINA JOUZJAN KUNDUZ BADAKHSHAN BALKH TAKHAR SAMANGAN FARYAB BAGHLAN SAR-E-PUL PANJSHER NURISTAN BADGHIS KUNAR KAPISA PARWAN BAMIAN LAGHMAN KABUL HERAT NINGARHAR WARDAK GHOWR LOGAR DAIKUNDI PAKTIA GHAZNI KHOST URUZGAN FARAH PAKTIKA IRAN ZABUL KEY Very High Threat High Threat Med Threat Low Threat PAKISTAN KANDAHAR HELMAND NIMRUZ

  31. RISK ASSESSMENT – 2011 UZBEKISTAN TAJIKISTAN TURKMENISTAN CHINA JOUZJAN KUNDUZ BADAKHSHAN BALKH TAKHAR SAMANGAN FARYAB BAGHLAN SAR-E-PUL PANJSHER NOORISTAN BEDGEES KUNAR KAPISA PARWAN BAMIAN LAGHMAN KABUL HERAT NINGARHAR WARDAK GHOWR LOGAR DEHKUNDI PAKTIA GHAZNI KHOST URUZGAN FARAH PAKTIKA IRAN ZABUL KEY Very High Threat High Threat Med Threat Low Threat PAKISTAN KANDAHAR HELMAND NIMROZ

  32. Structures of Success ANA-paramilitary- militant solvency Afghan government- nature and character Regional support Requirement is Intra afghan dialogue, Intra American dialogue Intra regional dialogue. Economic survivability of the pos2014 Afghanistan.

  33. The Drugs 83 billion dollar economy 30% domestically consumed from 4% of 2003. Interface btw organized crime , terrorism and cross border peace. Base of parallel economy. Base of continued war Political negotiations in the absence of devlopmentbudgets are not a measure of stability

  34. FOREIGN AID PLEDGED AND DISBURSED, 2002-2012

  35. FOREIGN AID PLEDGED AND DISBURSED, 2002-2012

  36. PAKISTAN FUNDED PROJECTS 360 Million have been funded by Pakistan to support developmental efforts Science Faculty Nangarhar Torkham Jalalabad Road Nishtar Kidney Centre Jalalabad Allama Iqbal Faculty of Arts Kabul Jinnah Hospital Kabul

  37. PAKISTAN’S CONTRIBUTIONS IN AFGHANISTAN • Education Sector • Over 6,000 Afghan students are currently studying in Pakistani universities and professional colleges. • Around 30,000 Afghans educated in Pakistan are presently working in Afghanistan or abroad • Currently over half a million Afghan refugee children are enrolled in Pakistani schools • There are 2,000 scholarship scheme for Afghan students in Pakistan. Till April this year, 1000 students had already joined Pakistani educational institutions • Pakistan is to construct 50 primary schools and basic health units across rural Afghanistan

  38. PAKISTAN’S CONTRIBUTIONS IN AFGHANISTAN • Economic Activities • Efforts are in hand to promote bilateral trade to the level of $ 5 billion by 2015 • Both countries are working on an implementation framework for APTTA

  39. CONCEPT Provincial governance State building Sustainable economic structures Pakistan-Afghan refugees. The drug issue management. Militant solvency

  40. CONCEPT Mutually beneficial -Critical component of ‘Strategic COIN’ on both sides of Pak - Afghan Border. Benefit maximum population with quick yet enduring impact. Community driven - For consensus as well as employment. Concurrent rehabilitation / construction with ongoing operations, where possible. Use economic development as a motivation to deradicalize. Stabilize India-Pakistan Relations.

  41. Major challenges include:- Creation of right conditions for successful reconciliation, with every stakeholder showing requisite flexibility. Ensuring a degree of security for all parties involved in talks. Building of trust between participants. Move away from Zero-Sum Assessment. RECONCILIATION

  42. WAY FORWARD

  43. WAY FORWARD Restive provinces of Pashtun majority will have to be pacified through initiation of tangible measures

  44. WAY FORWARD Regional Approach

  45. WAY FORWARD Broad-based Afghan Government

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