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Post Mortem Forecast Review

Post Mortem Forecast Review. Contest 3 Wednesday, October 26, 2011 Bradford, PA and Glens Falls, NY. Contest 3 – Bradford, PA. Contest 3 – Bradford, PA.

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Post Mortem Forecast Review

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  1. Post Mortem Forecast Review Contest 3 Wednesday, October 26, 2011 Bradford, PA and Glens Falls, NY

  2. Contest 3 – Bradford, PA

  3. Contest 3 – Bradford, PA FAA Identifier:  BFD Lat/Long:  41-48-11.0440N / 078-38-24.4350W41-48.184067N / 078-38.407250W41.8030678 / -78.6401208(estimated) Elevation:  2143 ft. / 653.2 m (surveyed) Variation:  08W (1975) From city:  10 miles S of BRADFORD, PA

  4. Contest 3 – Bradford, PA • KBFD 262353Z AUTO VRB03KT 9SM OVC010 11/09 A2977 RMK AO2 CIG 009V012 SLP081 60001 T01110094 10122 20111 58000 • TSNO= • KBFD 270053Z AUTO 00000KT 9SM OVC010 11/09 A2975 RMK AO2 SLP075 T01110094 TSNO= • KBFD 270153Z AUTO 22004KT 7SM BKN010 OVC014 11/09 A2975 RMK AO2 CIG 008V013 SLP074 T01110094 TSNO= • KBFD 270245Z AUTO VRB03KT 3SM -RA BR FEW008 OVC014 11/09 A2974 RMK AO2 RAB22 P0000 TSNO= • KBFD 270253Z AUTO 00000KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR BKN010 OVC014 11/09 A2974 RMK AO2 RAB22 CIG 006V013 SLP071 P0001 • 60001 T01110094 56009 TSNO= • KBFD 270303Z AUTO 00000KT 2SM -RA BR BKN008 OVC014 11/09 A2974 RMK AO2 CIG 004V011 P0000 TSNO= • KBFD 270253Z AUTO 00000KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR BKN010 OVC014 11/09 A2974= • KBFD 270333Z AUTO 00000KT 3SM -RA BR OVC005 11/09 A2972 RMK AO2 P0003 TSNO= • KBFD 270353Z AUTO 00000KT 3SM -RA BR OVC005 11/09 A2972 RMK AO2 CIG 003V008 SLP065 P0005 T01060094 TSNO= • KBFD 270407Z AUTO 32004KT 1 3/4SM +RA BR OVC005 11/09 A2972 RMK AO2 P0004 TSNO= • KBFD 270432Z AUTO 32005KT 2 1/2SM RA BR BKN005 OVC011 11/09 A2972 RMK AO2 P0013 TSNO= • KBFD 270447Z AUTO 33009KT 3SM +RA BR SCT005 OVC013 10/08 A2973 RMK AO2 P0020 401220067 TSNO= • KBFD 270453Z AUTO 35008KT 3SM +RA BR SCT005 OVC013 10/08 A2972 RMK AO2 SLP064 P0023 T01000083 401220067 TSNO= • KBFD 270505Z AUTO 34005KT 5SM -RA BR BKN009 BKN014 OVC060 09/08 A2972 RMK AO2 P0003 TSNO= • KBFD 270512Z AUTO 36005KT 9SM -RA FEW009 SCT014 OVC060 09/08 A2971 RMK AO2 P0003 TSNO= • KBFD 270534Z AUTO 33007KT 10SM -RA BKN006 BKN060 09/08 A2972 RMK AO2 CIG 003V009 P0003 TSNO=

  5. Contest 3 – Bradford, PA • KBFD 270653Z AUTO 06004KT 10SM BKN006 OVC012 09/08 A2970 RMK AO2 RAE47 CIG 003V008 SLP057 P0001 T00890078 • TSNO= • KBFD 270712Z AUTO VRB05KT 10SM BKN004 OVC011 08/07 A2972 RMK AO2 CIG 003V007 TSNO= • KBFD 270753Z AUTO 01004KT 10SM -RA OVC004 07/06 A2972 RMK AO2 RAB45 SLP064 P0000 T00670056 TSNO= • KBFD 270853Z AUTO 06004KT 9SM -RA OVC004 05/04 A2971 RMK AO2 RAE10B29 CIG 003V008 SLP061 P0001 60002 • T00500039 56005 TSNO= • KBFD 270906Z AUTO 06004KT 10SM BKN006 BKN011 OVC055 05/03 A2971 RMK AO2 RAE0857 CIG 004V009 P0000 TSNO= • KBFD 270953Z AUTO 01005KT 10SM BKN006 OVC060 04/03 A2973 RMK AO2 RAE0857B33E48 SLP069 P0000 T00440033 TSNO= • KBFD 271053Z AUTO 02007KT 10SM -RA OVC006 04/02 A2974 RMK AO2 RAB30 SLP074 P0000 T00390022 TSNO= • KBFD 271119Z AUTO 03005KT 10SM OVC004 04/02 A2973 RMK AO2 RAE1057 P0000 TSNO= • KBFD 271153Z AUTO 02004KT 6SM -RA BR OVC004 03/02 A2975 RMK AO2 RAE1057B46 SLP078 P0000 60002 70039 T00330022 • 10094 20033 51013 TSNO=

  6. Contest 3 – Bradford, PA • KBFD 271153Z AUTO 02004KT 6SM -RA BR OVC004 03/02 A2975 RMK AO2 RAE1057B46 SLP078 P0000 60002 70039 T00330022 • 10094 20033 51013 TSNO= • KBFD 271237Z AUTO 05008KT 10SM OVC006 03/02 A2975 RMK AO2 RAE06 CIG 004V011 P0000 TSNO= • KBFD 271253Z AUTO VRB04KT 10SM OVC006 03/02 A2974 RMK AO2 RAE06 CIG 003V007 SLP077 P0000 T00280017 TSNO= • KBFD 271304Z AUTO 05008KT 9SM OVC004 03/02 A2973 RMK AO2 CIG 003V007 TSNO= • KBFD 271353Z AUTO 04006KT 10SM -RA OVC004 03/02 A2974 RMK AO2 RAB49 CIG 003V007 SLP075 P0000 T00280017 TSNO= • KBFD 271440Z AUTO 05005KT 10SM -RA OVC006 03/02 A2972 RMK AO2 CIG 005V009 P0000 TSNO= • KBFD 271453Z AUTO 01006KT 10SM -RA OVC006 03/01 A2974 RMK AO2 CIG 005V011 SLP075 P0000 60000 T00280011 55003 • TSNO= • KBFD 271553Z AUTO 02006KT 8SM -RA BKN006 BKN010 OVC015 03/01 A2973 RMK AO2 SLP073 P0002 T00280011 TSNO= • KBFD 271648Z AUTO 36007KT 2SM -SN BR BKN008 OVC014 02/00 A2973 RMK AO2 VIS 1 1/2V3 RAE30SNB30 P0002 TSNO= • KBFD 271653Z AUTO 36007KT 1 3/4SM -SN BR BKN008 OVC013 02/00 A2973 RMK AO2 RAE30SNB30 SLP073 P0003 T00170000 • TSNO= • KBFD 271710Z AUTO 01007G15KT 3/4SM -SN BR BKN006 OVC011 01/M01 A2974 RMK AO2 P0001 TSNO= • KBFD 271732Z AUTO 01008KT 1/4SM SN FG VV007 01/M01 A2974 RMK AO2 P0002 TSNO= • KBFD 271750Z AUTO 01006KT 1/2SM -SN FG SCT005 OVC010 01/M01 A2973 RMK AO2 P0003 TSNO= • KBFD 271753Z AUTO 01006KT 3/4SM -SN BR SCT006 OVC010 01/M01 A2973 RMK AO2 SLP077 P0003 60008 T00061006 10033 • 20006 53001 TSNO=

  7. Contest 3 – Bradford, PA

  8. Contest 3 – Bradford, PA

  9. Contest 3 – Bradford, PA

  10. Contest 3 – Bradford, PA

  11. Contest 3 – Bradford, PA

  12. Contest 3 – Bradford, PA

  13. Up Close and Personal

  14. Contest 3 – Bradford, PA

  15. Bradford, PA – Lessons Learned • Cold air is slow to move, despite the guidance! • The changeover to snow can come quickly at a higher elevation station. • An anabatic cold front precipitation shield, especially amounts, are well handled by EPS. • Winds in a colder air mass tend to be less than guidance due to lack of mixing.

  16. Contest 3 – Glens Falls, NY

  17. Contest 3 – Glens Falls, NY FAA Identifier:  GFL Lat/Long:  43-20-28.4000N / 073-36-37.1000W43-20.473333N / 073-36.618333W43.3412222 / -73.6103056(estimated) Elevation:  328 ft. / 100.0 m (surveyed) Variation:  14W (1980) From city:  3 miles NE of GLENS FALLS, NY

  18. Contest 3 – Glens Falls, NY KGFL 262353Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM SCT024 BKN028 OVC035 07/06 A2981 RMK AO2 SLP100 T00670061 10072 20067 53003= KGFL 270046Z AUTO 02008KT 4SM BR FEW009 SCT015 OVC020 06/05 A2981 RMK AO2 RAB31E41 P0001= KGFL 270053Z AUTO 04007KT 4SM BR OVC020 06/05 A2982 RMK AO2 RAB31E41 SLP101 P0001 T00610050= KGFL 270153Z AUTO 02003KT 10SM OVC022 06/04 A2980 RMK AO2 RAB26E52 SLP095 P0001 T00560044= KGFL 270253Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM OVC030 06/06 A2979 RMK AO2 RAB01E29 SLP093 P0000 60002 T00610056 58007= KGFL 270353Z AUTO 01003KT 10SM -RA OVC036 06/05 A2978 RMK AO2 RAB09 SLP090 P0001 T00610050= KGFL 270453Z AUTO 35005KT 9SM -RA FEW024 OVC034 06/05 A2978 RMK AO2 SLP091 P0001 T00610050 400720039= KGFL 270522Z AUTO 01006KT 10SM -RA BKN024 OVC036 06/04 A2978 RMK AO2 P0001= KGFL 270530Z AUTO 01007KT 10SM -RA FEW024 OVC038 06/04 A2978 RMK AO2 P0002= KGFL 270553Z AUTO 02007KT 10SM -RA BKN040 OVC047 06/04 A2977 RMK AO2 SLP086 P0002 60006 T00560044 10067 20056 58007= KGFL 270653Z AUTO 01010KT 10SM -RA OVC038 06/03 A2978 RMK AO2 SLP089 P0003 T00560033= KGFL 270718Z AUTO 03009KT 8SM -RA BKN028 OVC036 05/03 A2978 RMK AO2 P0001= KGFL 270753Z AUTO 02009KT 8SM -RA OVC028 05/03 A2978 RMK AO2 SLP091 P0004 T00500033= KGFL 270805Z AUTO 02010KT 7SM -RA OVC030 04/03 A2979 RMK AO2 P0001= KGFL 270853Z AUTO 01005KT 9SM -RA FEW008 BKN030 OVC049 04/04 A2978 RMK AO2 SLP091 P0005 60012 T00440039 51005= KGFL 270905Z AUTO 36007KT 10SM -RA SCT010 BKN017 OVC050 04/03 A2980 RMK AO2 P0001= KGFL 270905Z AUTO 36007KT 10SM -RA SCT010 BKN017 OVC050 04/03A2980= KGFL 270953Z AUTO 02005KT 10SM -RA SCT016 OVC026 04/03 A2978 RMK AO2 SLP091 P0001 T00390028= KGFL 271053Z AUTO 02007KT 10SM FEW016 BKN026 OVC040 04/03 A2980 RMK AO2 RAE0958 SLP096 P0000 T00390028= KGFL 271153Z AUTO 03005KT 9SM BKN019 OVC025 03/03 A2980 RMK AO2 RAB13E47 SLP098 P0000 60013 70020 T00330028 10056 20033 53006= KGFL 271221Z AUTO 04004KT 9SM SCT025 BKN050 OVC085 03/02 A2981 RMK AO2 RAB10E18SNB08E20 P0000=

  19. Contest 3 – Glens Falls, NY • KGFL 271153Z AUTO 03005KT 9SM BKN019 OVC025 03/03 A2980 RMK AO2 RAB13E47 SLP098 P0000 60013 70020 T00330028 • 10056 20033 53006= • KGFL 271221Z AUTO 04004KT 9SM SCT025 BKN050 OVC085 03/02 A2981 RMK AO2 RAB10E18SNB08E20 P0000= • KGFL 271249Z AUTO 01005KT 9SM -RA BKN017 BKN055 OVC085 03/03 A2983 RMK AO2 RAB10E18B48SNB08E20 P0000= • KGFL 271253Z AUTO 02004KT 8SM -RA BKN017 OVC055 03/03 A2983 RMK AO2 RAB10E18B48SNB08E20 SLP107 P0000 • T00330028= • KGFL 271304Z AUTO 05006KT 8SM -SN SCT017 OVC055 03/03 A2981 RMK AO2 RAE01SNB01 P0000= • KGFL 271333Z AUTO 06008KT 4SM -SN BR SCT019 BKN024 OVC037 03/02 A2981 RMK AO2 RAE01SNB01 P0001= • KGFL 271333Z AUTO 06008KT 4SM -SN BR SCT019 BKN024 OVC037 03/02A2981= • KGFL 271353Z AUTO 05006KT 5SM -SN BR BKN017 BKN022 OVC028 03/02 A2981 RMK AO2 RAE01SNB01 SLP102 P0002 • T00330022= • KGFL 271428Z AUTO 02007KT 5SM -RA BR SCT008 BKN015 OVC022 03/02 A2981 RMK AO2 RAB17SNE17 P0001= • KGFL 271428Z AUTO 02007KT 5SM -RA BR SCT008 BKN015 OVC022 03/02A2981= • KGFL 271438Z AUTO 01004KT 7SM -RA BKN008 OVC015 03/02 A2981 RMK AO2 RAB17SNE17 P0002= • KGFL 271453Z AUTO 01007KT 8SM -RA BKN008 OVC013 03/02 A2981 RMK AO2 RAB17SNE17 CIG 006V012 SLP102 P0002 60004 • T00330017 55006= • KGFL 271502Z AUTO 03006KT 5SM -RA BR SCT008 OVC015 03/02 A2980 RMK AO2 P0000= • KGFL 271453Z AUTO 01007KT 8SM -RA BKN008 OVC013 03/02 A2981= • KGFL 271502Z AUTO 03006KT 5SM -RA BR SCT008 OVC015 03/02 A2980= • KGFL 271546Z AUTO 02006KT 6SM -RA BR FEW010 OVC014 03/02 A2980 RMK AO2 P0003= • KGFL 271553Z AUTO 03006KT 6SM -RA BR FEW010 OVC014 03/02 A2979 RMK AO2 SLP095 P0003 T00280022= • KGFL 271607Z AUTO 01009KT 5SM -RA BR BKN008 OVC014 03/02 A2979 RMK AO2 P0001= • KGFL 271649Z AUTO 02010KT 5SM -RA BR FEW008 BKN014 OVC019 03/02 A2978 RMK AO2 P0003= • KGFL 271649Z AUTO 02010KT 5SM -RA BR FEW008 BKN014 OVC019 03/02A2978= • KGFL 271653Z AUTO 02009KT 5SM -RA BR FEW008 BKN014 OVC021 03/02 A2978 RMK AO2 SLP092 P0003 T00280017= • KGFL 271701Z AUTO 02011KT 4SM -RA BR SCT014 OVC019 03/02 A2978 RMK AO2 P0000= • KGFL 271653Z AUTO 02009KT 5SM -RA BR FEW008 BKN014 OVC021 03/02 A2978= • KGFL 271701Z AUTO 02011KT 4SM -RA BR SCT014 OVC019 03/02 A2978= • KGFL 271743Z AUTO 01005KT 4SM -SN BR SCT006 BKN010 OVC015 02/01 A2979 RMK AO2 RAE43SNB43 P0004= • KGFL 271743Z AUTO 01005KT 4SM -SN BR SCT006 BKN010 OVC015 02/01A2979= • KGFL 271753Z AUTO 01005KT 2 1/2SM -SN BR BKN006 OVC013 02/01 A2979 RMK AO2 RAE49SNB43 SLP094 P0005 60015 • T00170011 10033 20017 51003=

  20. Glens Falls, NY

  21. Contest 3 – Glens Falls, NY

  22. Contest 3 – Glens Falls, NY

  23. Contest 3 – Glens Falls, NY

  24. Glens Falls, NY Standings

  25. Up Close and Personal

  26. Glens Falls, NY Lessons Learned • Without a well developed cyclone, precipitation tends to come in several waves. • Boundary Layer temperatures will keep the melting layer above ground level until the precipitation becomes heavy enough to chill the lowest 50m. • A changeover in precipitation is often accompanied by low ceilings

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