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Post Mortem Forecast Review

Post Mortem Forecast Review. Contest 3 Thursday, November 3, 2011 Asheville, NC and Flagstaff, AZ. Contest 3 – Flagstaff, AZ. Contest 3 – Flagstaff, AZ.

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Post Mortem Forecast Review

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  1. Post Mortem Forecast Review Contest 3 Thursday, November 3, 2011 Asheville, NC and Flagstaff, AZ

  2. Contest 3 – Flagstaff, AZ

  3. Contest 3 – Flagstaff, AZ FAA Identifier:  FLG Lat/Long:  35-08-25.1000N / 111-40-09.3000W35-08.418333N / 111-40.155000W35.1403056 / -111.6692500(estimated) Elevation:  7014 ft. / 2137.9 m (surveyed) Variation:  14E (1975) From city:  4 miles S of FLAGSTAFF, AZ

  4. Flagstaff, Winslow, Whatever… • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5zuhxfrXocw

  5. Contest 3 – Flagstaff, AZ • KFLG 042357Z 21010G18KT 10SM BKN080 OVC100 08/M02 A2973 RMK AO2 SLP020 T00831022 10106 20083 58021= • KFLG 050057Z 20009G18KT 10SM FEW060 OVC085 08/M03 A2971 RMK AO2 SLP020 T00781028= • KFLG 050157Z 20016G29KT 4SM +RA OVC026 04/01 A2968 RMK AO2 PK WND 16041/0141 RAB22 SLP008 P0003 T00390011= • KFLG 050233Z AUTO 20019G32KT 2SM +RA BR FEW010 BKN020 OVC025 04/03 A2968 RMK AO2 PK WND 19032/0230 P0014 TSNO= • KFLG 050233Z AUTO 20019G32KT 2SM +RA BR FEW010 BKN020 OVC025 04/03A2968= • KFLG 050242Z AUTO 21022G34KT 5SM -RA BR BKN010 BKN016 OVC023 04/03 A2968 RMK AO2 PK WND 21034/0240 P0017 TSNO= • KFLG 050244Z AUTO 20019G34KT 7SM -RA SCT008 BKN015 OVC026 05/04 A2968 RMK AO2 PK WND 21034/0240 P0017 TSNO= • KFLG 050244Z AUTO 20019G34KT 7SM -RA SCT008 BKN015 OVC026 05/04A2968= • KFLG 050242Z AUTO 21022G34KT 5SM -RA BR BKN010 BKN016 OVC023 04/03A2968= • KFLG 050246Z AUTO 21019G34KT 8SM -RA BKN008 BKN015 OVC032 05/04 A2967 RMK AO2 PK WND 21034/0240 P0017 TSNO= • KFLG 050246Z AUTO 21019G34KT 8SM -RA BKN008 BKN015 OVC032 05/04A29= • KFLG 050257Z AUTO 20021G35KT 5SM +RA BR SCT008 BKN013 OVC032 05/04 A2967 RMK AO2 PK WND 20035/0252 SLP999 P0018 60021 • T00500039 56009 TSNO= • KFLG 050253Z AUTO 21028G35KT 7SM -RA SCT008 BKN012 OVC032 05/04A2968= • KFLG 050257Z AUTO 20021G35KT 5SM +RA BR SCT008 BKN013 OVC032 05/04 A2967= • KFLG 050357Z AUTO 22026G34KT 5SM -RA BR SCT008 OVC012 04/03 A2968 RMK AO2 PK WND 21039/0333 SLP996 P0015 T00390028 TSNO= • KFLG 050431Z AUTO 22021G35KT 6SM -RA BR BKN009 OVC015 04/03 A2966 RMK AO2 PK WND 22035/0425 P0002 TSNO= • KFLG 050438Z AUTO 22021G33KT 9SM -RA SCT009 BKN015 OVC020 04/03 A2966 RMK AO2 PK WND 22035/0425 P0003 TSNO= • KFLG 050438Z AUTO 22021G33KT 9SM -RA SCT009 BKN015 OVC020 04/03A2966= • KFLG 050446Z AUTO 21023G33KT 8SM -RA SCT009 OVC013 04/04 A2965 RMK AO2 PK WND 22035/0425 P0003 TSNO= • KFLG 050457Z AUTO 22023G34KT 4SM RA BR SCT009 OVC013 03/03 A2965 RMK AO2 PK WND 22035/0425 SLP985 P0006 T00330033 TSNO= • KFLG 050548Z AUTO 21020G29KT 9SM -RA BKN007 OVC011 03/03 A2962 RMK AO2 PK WND 23040/0511 CIG 004V007 P0005 TSNO= • KFLG 050557Z AUTO 21017G33KT 4SM RA BR SCT007 OVC012 03/03 A2962 RMK AO2 PK WND 23040/0511 SLP973 P0006 60048 T00280028 • 10083 20028 58016 TSNO= • KFLG 050614Z AUTO 20017G26KT 3SM +RA BR BKN009 OVC013 02/02 A2960 RMK AO2 PK WND 20028/0559 P0004 TSNO=

  6. Contest 3 – Flagstaff, AZ • KFLG 050557Z AUTO 21017G33KT 4SM RA BR SCT007 OVC012 03/03 A2962 RMK AO2 PK WND 23040/0511 SLP973 P0006 60048 T00280028 • 10083 20028 58016 TSNO= • KFLG 050614Z AUTO 20017G26KT 3SM +RA BR BKN009 OVC013 02/02 A2960 RMK AO2 PK WND 20028/0559 P0004 TSNO= • KFLG 050657Z AUTO 20015G26KT 4SM RA BR BKN009 OVC012 02/02 A2958 RMK AO2 PK WND 20030/0640 SLP963 P0017 T00220022 • 401061033 TSNO= • KFLG 050721Z AUTO 21018G32KT 2SM -SN BR OVC009 01/01 A2958 RMK AO2 PK WND 20032/0716 RAE11SNB11 P0005 TSNO= • KFLG 050735Z AUTO 21017G29KT 1 3/4SM -SN BR OVC009 01/01 A2957 RMK AO2 PK WND 20032/0716 RAE11B28E29SNB11 P0009 TSNO= • KFLG 050742Z AUTO 21013G29KT 3SM +RA BR OVC009 01/01 A2956 RMK AO2 PK WND 20032/0716 RAE11B28SNB11E42 P0010 TSNO= • KFLG 050757Z AUTO 20008G19KT 4SM RA BR BKN006 OVC011 01/01 A2954 RMK AO2 PK WND 20032/0716 RAE11B28SNB11E42 SLP951 P0011 • T00110011 TSNO= • KFLG 050810Z AUTO 19007KT 2SM -SN BR OVC008 01/01 A2954= • KFLG 050810Z AUTO 19007KT 2SM -SN BR OVC008 01/01 A2954 RMK AO2 RAE0758SNB0758 P0002 TSNO $= • KFLG 050818Z AUTO 22016G21KT 1SM -SN BR OVC006 01/01 A2956 RMK AO2 RAE0758SNB0758 P0004 TSNO $= • KFLG 050826Z AUTO 22021G31KT 3/4SM -SN BR VV007 01/01 A2956 RMK AO2 PK WND 22031/0826 RAE0758SNB0758 P0008 TSNO $= • KFLG 050857Z AUTO 26008G15KT 3/4SM -SN BR VV007 00/00 A2957 RMK AO2 PK WND 22031/0826 RAE0758SNB0758 SLP965 P0012 60040 • T00000000 55013 TSNO $= • KFLG 050957Z AUTO 20013KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV004 M01/M01 A2960 RMK AO2 SLP975 P0012 T10061006 TSNO $= • KFLG 051012Z AUTO 21012KT 1/2SM SN FZFG VV005 M01/M01 A2960 RMK AO2 P0004 TSNO $= • KFLG 051048Z AUTO 20009KT 1SM -SN FEW006 OVC010 M02/ A2959 RMK AO2 P0008 TSNO $= • KFLG 051057Z AUTO 21012KT 2 1/2SM -SN FEW006 BKN012 OVC070 M02/ A2960 RMK AO2 SLP980 P0008 T1017 TSNO $= • KFLG 051104Z AUTO 22015KT 5SM -SN BR FEW006 BKN012 OVC018 M02/M02A2959= • KFLG 051104Z AUTO 22015KT 5SM -SN BR FEW006 BKN012 OVC018 M02/M02 A2959 RMK AO2 P0000 TSNO $= • KFLG 051111Z AUTO 22013KT 6SM -SN BR FEW006 BKN017 OVC070 M02/M02 A2959 RMK AO2 P0000 TSNO $= • KFLG 051111Z AUTO 22013KT 6SM -SN BR FEW006 BKN017 OVC070 M02/M02A2959= • KFLG 051123Z AUTO 23010KT 2 1/2SM -SN BR FEW006 BKN012 OVC017 M02/M02 A2959 RMK AO2 UPB14E17SNE14B21 P0000 TSNO $= • KFLG 051123Z AUTO 23010KT 2 1/2SM -SN BR FEW006 BKN012 OVC017M02/M02 A2959= • KFLG 051131Z AUTO 22014G18KT 1SM -SN BR BKN010 OVC017 M02/M02 A2959 RMK AO2 UPB14E17SNE14B21 P0000 TSNO $= • KFLG 051131Z AUTO 22014G18KT 1SM -SN BR BKN010 OVC017 M02/M02A2959= • KFLG 051157Z AUTO 22016KT 1/2SM SN FZFG VV006 M02/M02 A2960 RMK AO2 UPB14E17SNE14B21 SLP985 P0004 60064 70112 T10171017 • 10028 21017 51009 TSNO $=

  7. Contest 3 - Flagstaff • KFLG 051157Z AUTO 22016KT 1/2SM SN FZFG VV006 M02/M02 A2960 RMK AO2 UPB14E17SNE14B21 SLP985 P0004 60064 70112 T10171017 • 10028 21017 51009 TSNO $= • KFLG 051221Z AUTO 23011G19KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR BKN007 OVC013 M02/M02 A2963 RMK AO2 P0001 TSNO $= • KFLG 051221Z AUTO 23011G19KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR BKN007 OVC013 M02/M02A2963= • KFLG 051234Z AUTO 23014G20KT 1 1/4SM -SN BR OVC013 M02/M02 A2963 RMK AO2 P0002 TSNO $= • KFLG 051245Z AUTO 23014G20KT 2 1/2SM -SN BR BKN015 OVC035 M02/M02 A2964 RMK AO2 P0002 TSNO $= • KFLG 051245Z AUTO 23014G20KT 2 1/2SM -SN BR BKN015 OVC035 M02/M02A2964= • KFLG 051252Z AUTO 23011G19KT 3SM -SN BR FEW011 OVC017 M02/M02 A2965 RMK AO2 P0002 TSNO $= • KFLG 051357Z 25010G20KT 2SM -SN BR OVC015 M02/M02 A2970 RMK AO2 SLP033 P0000 T10221022 TSNO $= • KFLG 051353Z AUTO 25012G20KT 4SM -SN BR OVC017 M02/M02 A2970= • KFLG 051357Z 25010G20KT 2SM -SN BR OVC015 M02/M02 A2970= • KFLG 051404Z 25008KT 1SM -SN BR SCT010 OVC015 M03/M03 A2970= • KFLG 051404Z 25008KT 1SM -SN BR SCT010 OVC015 M03/M03 A2970 RMK AO2 P0000 $= • KFLG 051409Z 23010KT 1SM -SN BR SCT010 OVC015 M03/M03 A2971 RMK AO2 P0000 $= • KFLG 051414Z 22011G18KT 3/4SM -SN BR BKN010 OVC015 M03/M03 A2971 RMK AO2 P0000 $= • KFLG 051430Z 23016G21KT 1SM -SN BR OVC010 M03/M03 A2973 RMK AO2 P0000 $= • KFLG 051457Z 23014KT 8SM BKN010 OVC015 M03/M03 A2975 RMK AO2 PK WND 23026/1433 SNE57 SLP050 P0000 60002 T10331033 53026 • $= • KFLG 051452Z 23016G20KT 3SM -SN BR SCT009 OVC014 M03/M03 A2974= • KFLG 051457Z 23014KT 8SM BKN010 OVC015 M03/M03 A2975= • KFLG 051526Z 23012G19KT 9SM FEW010 BKN015 OVC020 M03/M03 A2978 RMK AO2 $= • KFLG 051543Z 26011G17KT 6SM BR BKN013 OVC021 M03/M03 A2979 RMK AO2 SNB30E43 P0000 $=

  8. Contest 3 - Flagstaff • KFLG 051157Z AUTO 22016KT 1/2SM SN FZFG VV006 M02/M02 A2960 RMK AO2 UPB14E17SNE14B21 SLP985 P0004 60064 70112 T10171017 • 10028 21017 51009 TSNO $= • KFLG 051221Z AUTO 23011G19KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR BKN007 OVC013 M02/M02 A2963 RMK AO2 P0001 TSNO $= • KFLG 051221Z AUTO 23011G19KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR BKN007 OVC013 M02/M02A2963= • KFLG 051234Z AUTO 23014G20KT 1 1/4SM -SN BR OVC013 M02/M02 A2963 RMK AO2 P0002 TSNO $= • KFLG 051245Z AUTO 23014G20KT 2 1/2SM -SN BR BKN015 OVC035 M02/M02 A2964 RMK AO2 P0002 TSNO $= • KFLG 051245Z AUTO 23014G20KT 2 1/2SM -SN BR BKN015 OVC035 M02/M02A2964= • KFLG 051252Z AUTO 23011G19KT 3SM -SN BR FEW011 OVC017 M02/M02 A2965 RMK AO2 P0002 TSNO $= • KFLG 051357Z 25010G20KT 2SM -SN BR OVC015 M02/M02 A2970 RMK AO2 SLP033 P0000 T10221022 TSNO $= • KFLG 051353Z AUTO 25012G20KT 4SM -SN BR OVC017 M02/M02 A2970= • KFLG 051357Z 25010G20KT 2SM -SN BR OVC015 M02/M02 A2970= • KFLG 051404Z 25008KT 1SM -SN BR SCT010 OVC015 M03/M03 A2970= • KFLG 051404Z 25008KT 1SM -SN BR SCT010 OVC015 M03/M03 A2970 RMK AO2 P0000 $= • KFLG 051409Z 23010KT 1SM -SN BR SCT010 OVC015 M03/M03 A2971 RMK AO2 P0000 $= • KFLG 051414Z 22011G18KT 3/4SM -SN BR BKN010 OVC015 M03/M03 A2971 RMK AO2 P0000 $= • KFLG 051430Z 23016G21KT 1SM -SN BR OVC010 M03/M03 A2973 RMK AO2 P0000 $= • KFLG 051457Z 23014KT 8SM BKN010 OVC015 M03/M03 A2975 RMK AO2 PK WND 23026/1433 SNE57 SLP050 P0000 60002 T10331033 53026 • $= • KFLG 051452Z 23016G20KT 3SM -SN BR SCT009 OVC014 M03/M03 A2974= • KFLG 051457Z 23014KT 8SM BKN010 OVC015 M03/M03 A2975= • KFLG 051526Z 23012G19KT 9SM FEW010 BKN015 OVC020 M03/M03 A2978 RMK AO2 $= • KFLG 051543Z 26011G17KT 6SM BR BKN013 OVC021 M03/M03 A2979 RMK AO2 SNB30E43 P0000 $= • KFLG 051557Z 24010G19KT 10SM SCT013 OVC018 M03/M03 A2981 RMK AO2 SNB30E43 SLP074 P0000 T10331033 $= • KFLG 051657Z 24008KT 10SM BKN018 OVC022 M03/M03 A2984 RMK AO2 SLP089 P0001 T10331033 $= • KFLG 051757Z 24013G22KT 10SM OVC018 M03/M03 A2987 RMK AO2 SLP101 60003 T10281033 11017 21033 53018 $=

  9. Contest 3 – Flagstaff, AZ

  10. Contest 3 - Flagstaff

  11. Contest 3 – Flagstaff, AZ

  12. Contest 3 – Flagstaff, AZ

  13. Contest 3 – Flagstaff, AZ

  14. Contest 3 – Flagstaff, AZ

  15. Contest 3 – Flagstaff, AZ

  16. Up Close and Personal

  17. Contest 3 – Flagstaff, AZ

  18. Flagstaff, AZ – Lessons Learned • Digging troughs from the north Pacific are quite moist and even more so when the vort max passes south of the forecast site in the mountains. • Consider carefully the low level wind flow for its upslope component. • Sometimes there is not much of a wind shift with the FROPA, instead just a rapid cooling due to the upper-level trough passage.

  19. Weekly Winners (Nov 1-3)

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