Climate Change : The science and the impacts for Wales

1. Climate Change: The science and the impacts for Wales Rhodri Asby, Deputy DirectorClimate Change & Natural Resource Policy

2. “Climate is what you expect,weather is what you get” Robert A. Heinlein Climate is a long term average of weather (usually over 30 years) and trends in these average conditions are climate change. Weather is what we experience hour-to-hour, day-to-day or even year-to-year, and as anyone living in Wales will know, it can be highly variable. On occasion weather may even appear at odds with long-term climate change (e.g. cold winters in 2009 and 2010).

3. The science.. Key Messages from the UN’s IPCC: There is overwhelming scientific evidence climate change is happening. Human influence on the climate system is clear, and recent anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are the highest in history. Without additional mitigation, warming by the end of the 21st century is expected to exceed 4°C, leading to a high risk of severe, widespread, and irreversible impacts globally. Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and long-lasting changes, increasing the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems. Climate change will increase existing risks (e.g. food security, health inequalities) and create new risks for natural and human systems. These risks are unevenly distributed and are generally greater for disadvantaged people and communities. The longer we delay action, the harder and more expensive it will be…

4. What are the impacts for Wales? • An increase in mean winter temperatures of around 2.0°C and precipitation of 14% by 2050 • An increase in mean summer temperatures of around 2.5°C and precipitation of 17% by 2050 • An increase in Sea Levels: by between 31 and 43cm by 2080 • More extreme weather Flooding in Cardiff (Source: www.geograph.org.uk)

13. Locally

14. Environmentally… Average temperatures in Wales have already increased by 0.7 degrees centigrade between 1961 and 2006 there has been a 22.4 day reduction in frosty days per year there has been a 24% decline in summer rainfall in Wales (1914-2006) Last month was globally the hottest October recorded

15. Impacts… The costs of not acting on climate change would be in the order 5-6% of the EU's GDP European Commission The approximate total cost of damage from flooding in the EU over the 2002-2013 period was at least EUR 150 billion. EU study published 3rd March 2014 420 000 people died prematurely from air pollution in the EU in 2010 European Environment Agency 100,000 Welsh homes at flooding risk now…. potentially up to 200,000 by 2050. UK Climate Change Risk Assessment

17. ‘connected challenges’

18. ‘the cost of living is increasing’

19. The Opportunity ‘Climate change is a threat, but responding to it opens up a world of opportunity. The transition we need to make towards a carbon-neutral world will provide jobs, a healthier planet, greater well-being and if we do it properly, greater equality.’ Mary Robinson • The energy and environmental sector in Wales now has a market value of £4.76 billion, employing about 58,000 people in 2,066 companies. • The sector has grown from £1.24 billion to £2.36 billion in sales: an increase of 90% from 2006.

20. Our aims Misc content to add ‘to create a sustainable, low carbon economy for Wales’ “putting sustainable development at the heart of government.” “Reduce greenhouse gas emissions in areas of devolved competence and support effective adaptation to the impacts of climate change through implementation of the Climate Change Strategy. “ “We are committed to improving the energy performance of homes in Wales to help communities find ways to reduce their reliance on fossil fuels.”

21. Our Targets Misc content to add Headline Targets and aims: • Annual target 3% each year from 2011 (2006-2010 baseline) • Overall emissions by 40% by 2020. • Build Wales’ resilience to the impacts of climate change

22. Progress • 74% of the existing 221,000 social homes in Wales had achieved a SAP rating of 65 or above/equivalent to an energy rating of D (March 2013). We anticipate all homes meeting it by 2020. • Energy Efficiency and Fuel Poverty Programmes have continued to cut greenhouse gas emissions and improve the energy performance of homes in Wales with improvements to over 7,900 homes. • Up to £750 million of investment being made through a programme to support local authorities delivering next generation waste facilities. • A Carbon Reduction Strategy for Welsh Government’s built estate has been implemented and emissions from government buildings have reduced by 27% • Almost 20% of electricity is NHS Wales is now generated from Combined Heat & Power Units and all NHS organisations have sustainable travel plans for their hospital sites.

23. Where we are… Misc content to add

24. Misc content to add Current Action… 66 countries, together responsible for around 88% of global manmade greenhouse gas emissions have passed almost 500 pieces of legislation on climate change The globe climate legislation study, 27 February 2014 The EU's decarbonisation of its energy sector will only cut emissions by half the amount needed to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius in 2050. EU Commission, ‘Trends to 2050’

25. Task1 Starting Task 2 Investigating Task 5 Monitoring & Reviewing Task 4 Implementing Task 3 Planning Preparing for a changing climate

27. Communities and third sector climate resilience worksheet. • Highlights the likely key impacts on individuals, organisations and services linked to third sector. • Offers guidance for preparation and anticipation to ensure all are ‘climate ready’. • Recognises that there is no ‘one size fits all’ solution. • Includes blank Action Plans to help consider specific immediate and long term actions along with organisational changes required.

28. Misc content to add Winter Weather Advice Webpage • Signposts where to receive latest information on: • weather forecasts and associated warnings • traffic • school closures • Offers guidance on being prepared for cold weather; keeping warm, keeping well, helping vulnerable community members.

29. Next Steps On October 21st, the Minister for Natural Resources set out the key priorities for action: • Driving out climate risk; • Driving down emissions; • Driving up Energy Efficiency; and • Driving forward Low Carbon Energy. In doing so, the focus is on Green Growth, tackling social vulnerability and strengthening our governance to support engagement.

30. Next steps .

31. Policy • Energy Wales • Climate Change • Towards Zero Waste • Water Strategy Legislation Funding . • Wellbeing of Future Generations Bill • Environment Bill • Planning Bill • Grant Funding • Green Growth Fund • Nature Fund • EU Funding Empowering Community Delivery Regulations Procurement • Resource Efficient Wales Procurement Framework • Welsh Government • Natural Resources Wales Information & Advice Guidance • Preparing for a Changing Climate • Resource Efficient Wales Contact Centre • Client manager support • Specialist support

32. Thank you / Diolch ‘Today’s problems cannot be solved if we still think the way we thought when we created them.’ Albert Einstein

33. Misc content to add Sectoral Adaptation Plan Guidance Engagement

34. Vulneability

35. Task1 Starting to understand your stakeholders and the basics of weather and climate Task 2 Investigating current and future threats and opportunities Task 5 Monitoring & Reviewing information and actions Task 4 Implementing the actions Task 3 Planning actions against the threats and opportunities Misc content to add Sectoral Adaptation Plan Guidance

36. What do you remember about past extreme weather events that have affected your community? Task1 Starting to understand your stakeholders and the basics of weather and climate Task 2 Investigating current and future threats and opportunities Task 5 Monitoring & Reviewing information and actions Task 4 Implementing the actions Task 3 Planning actions against the threats and opportunities Misc content to add

37. Task1 Starting to understand your stakeholders and the basics of weather and climate Task 2 Investigating current and future threats and opportunities Task 5 Monitoring & Reviewing information and actions Task 4 Implementing the actions Task 3 Planning actions against the threats and opportunities Misc content to add Sectoral Adaptation Plan Guidance • 2. Who in your community is most • at risk to our changing weather • and why? • 3. What places or buildings that • you value are at risk?

38. Task1 Starting to understand your stakeholders and the basics of weather and climate Task 2 Investigating current and future threats and opportunities Task 5 Monitoring & Reviewing information and actions Task 4 Implementing the actions Task 3 Planning actions against the threats and opportunities Misc content to add What can we do as a community?