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Climate Change Impacts on Georgia’s Natural Resources

Climate Change Impacts on Georgia’s Natural Resources. Steven McNulty, Ph.D. Research Ecologist USDA Forest Service Raleigh, NC. Global change impacts range from the certain to the unknown. Certain change. Atmospheric CO 2 is increasing and will continue to

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Climate Change Impacts on Georgia’s Natural Resources

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  1. Climate Change Impacts on Georgia’s Natural Resources Steven McNulty, Ph.D. Research Ecologist USDA Forest Service Raleigh, NC

  2. Global change impacts range from the certain to the unknown

  3. Certain change Atmospheric CO2 is increasing and will continue to increase for the foreseeable future due to human emissions of fossil fuel and land clearing

  4. Northern Hemisphere Carbon Emissions Source: Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST, 2000

  5. Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations Source: Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST, 2000

  6. Very Likely Impacts In Georgia Forests Increased Air Temperature Increased Population Increased Fire Fuel loads

  7. Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations Source: Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST, 2000

  8. Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature Source: Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST, 2000

  9. “..model estimates that take into account both greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols are consistent with observations over this period” Stott et al, Science 2000

  10. Simulated Temperature over the US Source: Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST, 2000

  11. Total Population 1990 (NPA)

  12. Total Population 2045 (NPA)

  13. Increase (%) in Population from 1990 to 2045 (NPA)

  14. Total Down Woody Material (Mg/ha) for mixed hardwood & coniferous tree species based on 2001-2002 FIA P3 county data Note: two counties have no data available (depicted in white)

  15. Likely Impacts On Georgia Forests (with and without climate change) Inter-annual precipitation variability

  16. Percent of the continental US with a much above normal proportion of total annual precipitation from 1-day extreme events more than 2 inches Karl et al. 1996

  17. Uwharrie National Forest Current Soil Erosion Map

  18. Areas of Soil Erosion By 2030 On UNF

  19. Likely Impacts On Georgia Forests (with and without climate change) Water supply Stress

  20. Water Demand (Use)

  21. Water Availability Population Land use change Climate Demand Supply

  22. Total water demand from all sectors –recharge Total water supply (PPT + ground water) WSSI = Water Supply Stress Index (WSSI)

  23. WSSId - WSSIRd = ( ) 1 ) * 100 WSSI1990 Change in Water Stress (WSSIR) to assess relative change in WSSIbetween the base year water stress (1990) and another year water stress

  24. Georgia Water Stress • Hot/Dry year (2043) with ground water available • Hot/Dry year (2043) without ground water available • Warm/Wet year (2045) with ground water available • Warm/Wet year (20450 without ground water available

  25. Mean Temperature Predicted by Had2CMSul for 2043 Hot dry year

  26. Total Precipitation Predicted by Had2CMSul for 2043 Hot dry year

  27. Mean Temperature Predicted by Had2CMSul for 2045 Warm wet year

  28. Total Precipitation Predicted by Had2CMSul for 2045 Warm wet year

  29. Water Supply Stress Index for 2045 wet year with groundwater

  30. WSSI Ratio for 1990:2045 wet year with groundwater

  31. Water Supply Stress Index for 2045 wet year with NO groundwater

  32. WSSI Ratio for 1990:2045 wet year with NO groundwater

  33. Water Supply Stress Index for 2043 dry year with groundwater

  34. WSSI Ratio for 1990:2043 dry year with groundwater

  35. Water Supply Stress Index for 2043 dry year with NO groundwater

  36. WSSI Ratio for 1990:2043 dry year with NO groundwater

  37. Likely Impacts In Georgia Forests (with and without climate change) Extended growing season and warming

  38. The increase in growing season length over the last 50 years averaged for eight stations in Alaska having the longest and most consistent temperature records.

  39. PEcon Hardwood Volume by FIA Survey Unit Had2CMSul Climate Scenario (2000)

  40. PEcon Hardwood Volume by FIA Survey Unit Had2CMSul Climate Scenario (2025)

  41. PEcon Hardwood Volume by FIA Survey Unit Had2CMSul Climate Scenario (2050)

  42. PEcon Harvest Volume by FIA Survey Unit Had2CMSul Climate Scenario Natural Pine, Mixed Pine and Hardwoods (2000)

  43. PEcon Harvest Volume by FIA Survey Unit Had2CMSul Climate Scenario Natural Pine, Mixed Pine and Hardwoods (2025)

  44. PEcon Harvest Volume by FIA Survey Unit Had2CMSul Climate Scenario Natural Pine, Mixed Pine and Hardwoods (2050)

  45. Timberland Acreage Shift in Georgia 1993 - 2040: No Climate Change Baseline

  46. Timberland Acreage Shift in Georgia by 2040 with Had2CMSul Climate Change

  47. Timberland Acreage Shift 1993 – 2040: No Climate Change Baseline > 25% DECLINE 5%-25% DECLINE <5% CHANGE 5%-25% INCREASE

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