PRIVA - A Tool for Adaptation Planning especially in NAPA Development

1. PRIVA - A Tool for Adaptation Planning especially in NAPA Development Paul V. Desanker Penn State University/Miombo Network (UNFCCC LDC Expert Group; AIACC Project AF38) desanker@psu.edu; www.africaclimatechange.org www.miombo.org www.NapaPrimer.org RD Lasco, ICRAF

2. Inspired by the need for a paradigm shift from impact assessments & top down approaches • Consider a (real) maize study …GCMs …maize models …lots of simulations and output data …2 years later … RD Lasco, ICRAF

3. Maize study … • Conclude that maize production and so food security is sensitive to climate variability especially erratic rains – some of the GCMs scenarios projected wetting, others drier conditions ... RD Lasco, ICRAF

4. Bear in mind … • GCM scenarios are not predictions! They are projections of what might happen if the drivers of that scenario were in effect …. RD Lasco, ICRAF

5. Impacts to adaptation … • That study then recommended adaptation options as follows: • Need to adopt drought resistant cultivars • Manage water better to withstand erratic rains • Switch to crops other than maize RD Lasco, ICRAF

6. Now the question is … • Are these conclusions and adaptation options informed by the 2-year modeling study of potential impacts of different GCM projections? RD Lasco, ICRAF

7. Need for a paradigm shift … • Clearly we need to look at adaptation differently …. • We still need the impact assessment studies, no doubt, but not to directly inform adaptation (esp those based on multiple scenarios) RD Lasco, ICRAF

8. Need for a paradigm shift … • One of the missing pieces is of course how to put the results of the scenario assessments in the context of what might actually happen • The various uncertainties in the climate system and the assessments themselves notwithstanding RD Lasco, ICRAF

9. NAPA under the UNFCCC • National Adaptation Programme of Action for Least Developed Countries (LDCs) • Designed to implement Article 4.9 of the FCCC that relates to LDCs • LDC Fund created under the convention with voluntary contributions from Annex II countries • LDCs negotiated this programme and designed the methods for doing NAPAs, etc, with active participation of many experts and agencies • Implemented under the GEF, and has gone from idea in 2000 to full programme by COP-7 in Nov 2002 RD Lasco, ICRAF

10. Enter the NAPA Idea and PRIVA • In summary, we believe you can identify (some) major needs for adaptation by an informed interaction with stakeholders in relation to their experience and livelihoods • For a given region, we can identify major climate hazards and threats (qualitatively if data insufficient) • Then for major sectors or systems important for livelihoods (or other metric), we can characterize impact potential RD Lasco, ICRAF

11. Enter the NAPA Idea and PRIVA • In order to fully describe vulnerability, need to understand the community or system that is exposed – in terms of adaptive capacity • Given the risk of climate hazards, impact potential and adaptive capacity, we can define Vulnerability. And then, • Adaptation is the process of decreasing vulnerability RD Lasco, ICRAF

12. PRIVA ... • Participatory … Rapid Integrated Assessment … of Vulnerability … and Adaptation (PRIVA) • Mix of process, tools (such as GIS for data processing and display, and models) RD Lasco, ICRAF

13. Conceptual description of PRIVA • Semi-formal description of vulnerability and adaptation • Integrates hazard and risk assessment, functional relationship of systems to climate, thresholds, adaptive capacity etc • Analytical solution likely, but can solve/resolve semi-quantitatively (using participatory approach) RD Lasco, ICRAF

14. PRIVA for NAPA (from NAPA Primer, Desanker 2004: The NAPA Primer) RD Lasco, ICRAF

15. RD Lasco, ICRAF

16. Framing Adaptation in PRIVA in terms of Eqn 2 • Define adaptation to minimize (to zero even) through any of the following: • By reducing the risk associated with hazards by manipulating components of risk • (Removing/reducing hazard through mitigation is outside domain of analysis for the LDCs) • Reduce impact potential through manipulation of the system dependence on climate (cropping manipulations for instance) • By increasing coping ability (e.g addressing key determinants such as poverty, access to financial resources, etc) • Carry out above in a multi-dimensional analysis or less effectively by addressing only one or some of the components RD Lasco, ICRAF

17. Applying PRIVA to NAPA • Current knowledge and experiences with climate (variability, extremes etc) sufficient to go through steps using participatory approaches for all LDCs • No expectation that NAPA activities will identify or address all adaptation needs especially long-term needs • NAPA to address the transition period between recent past/present climate and future changed climate RD Lasco, ICRAF

18. ClimateChange Extremes and Coping Range Current Climate Changed Climate? Climatic Attribute (X) Time(years) Current Coping Range Transition period – NAPA domain RD Lasco, ICRAF

19. Cascading or nested spatial scales • Apply PRIVA in successive spatial scales until issue is manageable – in relation to stakeholders, or in terms of funding limitations • For example, apply at national level to identify/select most vulnerable regions and systems or sectors or communities (“hotspots”) • Can then re-apply PRIVA for the selected regions • Iterate until can identify clear actions (adaptation activities) that are easily implementable and address specific communities/locations (action-orientedness, etc) RD Lasco, ICRAF

20. Cascading or nested spatial scales • In fact, PRIVA approach can be applied at any scale, from regional, national, sub-regional to community level depending on the stakeholders RD Lasco, ICRAF

21. Summary of PRIVA • National level tool for vulnerability assessment • Data include: maps, and spreadsheets with data by various subdivisions including admin districts, basins, etc • Thematic data such as population, land use, land cover, transportation, etc • Models impact models as needed RD Lasco, ICRAF

22. Summary of component tools in PRIVA • Data analysis (climate data, etc., Fortran programs, statistical software – IDL/ENVI) • GIS for spatial data analysis and display (Arcview, AWhere) • Impact models – various, biome/crop distribution models, crop models, etc) • Ranking: Multiple Criteria Analysis (e.g. Definite) • Consensus Building approaches RD Lasco, ICRAF

23. Comments • Most impact models such as in compendium, are stand alone application suites – not trivial to combine or modify • Most cannot modify/customize RD Lasco, ICRAF

24. Next Steps • Development of “PRIVETTES” for specific climatic hazards and sectors • Coastal areas and erosion, flooding • Drought • Agricultural and Food Security • Ecosystem Goods and Services in shared river basins RD Lasco, ICRAF

25. Further information • Desanker, P. (2004). The NAPA Primer. LDC Expert Group, UNFCCC, Bonn, Germany, 203p. • Information on NAPA: www.unfccc.int/ldc, www.napaprimer.org and links therein RD Lasco, ICRAF

26. The NAPA Primer will be launched at 1 pm, Thursday December 9th, 2004 Room: XXXX, XXX Refreshments will be served Desanker, P. 2004. The NAPA Primer. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Least Developed Countries Expert Group (LEG), Bonn, Germany, 198p. RD Lasco, ICRAF

27. RD Lasco, ICRAF