1 / 20

Use and evaluation of medium-range forecast at the Hungarian Meteorological Service.

Use and evaluation of medium-range forecast at the Hungarian Meteorological Service. Ferenc Wantuch Hungarian Meteorological Service Kitaibel P. u. 1. H-1024 Budapest E-mail:wantuch.f@met.hu. Talk outline. Introduction Verification Two interesting case studies

bracha
Download Presentation

Use and evaluation of medium-range forecast at the Hungarian Meteorological Service.

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Use and evaluation of medium-range forecast at the Hungarian Meteorological Service. Ferenc Wantuch Hungarian Meteorological Service Kitaibel P. u. 1. H-1024 Budapest E-mail:wantuch.f@met.hu

  2. Talk outline • Introduction • Verification • Two interesting case studies • New products based on ECMWF.

  3. Data flow and structure Visualisation NWP data source: Netcdf file format File format: GRIB BUFR Code generalisation process

  4. Code generalisation by the help of different method (PP, MOS) visibility forecast, max, min temperatures cloudiness, ... Forecaster output NWP output Text and data Control Verification Forecast text generator program End users

  5. Verification A Complex Score was defined. Weight Temperature 25+25% Precipitation 22,5% Wind 10% Cloud Cover 17,5% 25 25 25 20 17,5 15 12,5 % 10 10 6 4 5 0 Tmin Tmax P.Exist P.Amounty Áv.Windl Wind gust Cloud Covert

  6. Verification 2004 (Hungary)ALADIN ECMWF Forecaster Tmin: Tmax:

  7. Verification results and trends Verification results 2004 (Hungary)ALADIN ECMWF Forecaster Felhőzet:

  8. Verification results and trends 2004. December cold air pad 2003. Feb.: Anticyclon with snow surface, ALADIN is unsuccesfull 2000. second period: changes in ECMWF algorithm + model upgrade: 60 => 40 km) Complex Score for the first day 2000. júl – 2004. dec. (Country mean) ALADIN ECMWF Synoptic

  9. Minimum Temperature sesonal ME and RMSE (2001 – 2004 Hungary mean) EC + Forecaster: ME: seasonal RMSE:slowlydecrease

  10. ~30%-correction in (cold air pad) inversion situation Complex Score for the first day in 2004-ben (country mean) ALADIN ECMWF Forecaster

  11. Case study I. : Inversion and cold air pad. (2004. December ) MSG comp321 sat. picture. 12.12. 12 2004 UTC and observations ECMWF model forecast. 12 UTC-re dec.12 2004 100 20 SKC is predicted The last ECMWF prediction. Tops of mountains are clear Stratus (cloud base 200-400 m, surface temperature –1, -3 C

  12. Cloud cover verification. ECMWF - ALADIN – Forecaster (1st day) 2004. October – November – December V 4 AL EC F 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 (okta) -4 -5 -6 -7 okt. 1. okt. 8. nov. 5. dec. 3. okt. 15. okt. 22. okt. 29. nov. 12. nov. 19. nov. 26. dec. 10. dec. 17. dec. 24. dec. 31.

  13. Case study II. : Flash flood in Matra Mountains. (18.04.2005. ) The ECMWF model involved the possibility of extreme precipitation

  14. Case study II. Succesful MM5 modell forecast based on ECMWF initial condition.

  15. New clusterisation method and early time torch construction depend on ECMWF at HMS. Varying number of clusters for the Carpathian Basin Torch construction before the dissemination time.

  16. New torch diagrams and probability forecasts for energetic sector. 925 hPa,850 hPa,700 hPa, wind direction ,relativ hum.,temperture,… torches Probablilty forecasts

  17. Post processing application. • Program demonstration • Internet and business application • End

  18. Thank you for attention !

More Related