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Aerosols and their relevance to forecasts by the Hungarian Meteorological Service

Aerosols and their relevance to forecasts by the Hungarian Meteorological Service. Tamás Tóth Hungarian Meteorological Service Phone: +36 62/624-042 E-mail: toth.t@met.hu. Aerosols. Def. : dispersion of the solid and liquid particles suspended in gas.

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Aerosols and their relevance to forecasts by the Hungarian Meteorological Service

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  1. Aerosols and their relevance to forecasts by the Hungarian Meteorological Service Tamás Tóth Hungarian Meteorological Service Phone: +36 62/624-042 E-mail: toth.t@met.hu

  2. Aerosols Def. : dispersion of the solid and liquid particles suspended in gas. • Incidence: everywhere in the atmosphere • Three types on basis of diameter: • Nuclei mode: particle size < 0.1 μm • Accumulation mode: 0.1 μm < p.s.< 2.5 μm • Coarse-particle mode: particle size > 2.5 μm • Natural and antropogenic sources • Most important effect: direct and indirect influences for the Earth’s radiation budget source: http://my.opera.com/nielsol/ blog/2008/11/11/atmospheric-dust-aerosols

  3. Aerosols: natural sources Primary: continuously emit - Soil dust - Sea salt - volcanic ash - botanical debris Secondary particles are formed by chemical reaction in the air: -Volatile Organic Compounds such as monoterpenes Source: http://climatechange.wikispaces.com/ 5.+Aerosols

  4. Antropogenic aerosols Concentrate in industrial areas (mainly in the Northern Hemisphere) Most important: sulphates originating from the burning of coal and oil Nitrogen-oxides from transportation CFCs originating from sprays, fridges source: http://climatechange.wikispaces.com/5.+Aerosols http://climatechange.wikispaces.com/5.+Aerosols

  5. Health effects The atmospheric aerosol has significant influences on our health. They can cause reduced lung functions, increased respiratory symptoms, cardiovascular diseases, irritants for eyes, etc. Small particles can enter in the deeper parts of the lung (alveoli), where the transfer of O2 and CO2 take place.

  6. Climatological effects Source: http://suzaku.eorc.jaxa.jp/GCOM_C/w_gcomc/temp_f1.html

  7. Climatological effects 2 Mt. Pinatubo: major eruption in 1991 Droplets of sulfuric acid are spread in the stratosphere by the wind. They reflect sunlight, reducing solar energy. At least 0.2-0.3 degrees cooling for years. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/29/prediction-is-hard-especially-of-the-future/ Sources: http://benvironment.org.uk/ post/8217302379/pinatubo

  8. How can the Hungarian Meteorological Service use aerosol forecasts?

  9. Hungarian „speciality” • Hungary : problem with air pollution in winter, especially PM10 (aerial dust) • Cold air pad situation: foggy and misty weather with low level clouds (stratus) • Forecast: weather prediction models usually indicateclear conditions • Reality: may be totally different – fog and durable low level clouds

  10. First day After a cold front: cold air settles  Very low temperatureat night with strong ground radiation up to space  Developing low-level inversion  Lack of upstreams  Thickness of boundary layer is absolutely 0!

  11. Later Stratiform clouds gradually cover the whole Carpathian Basin. The top of this cloudmass is usually at 600-1000 metres, sometimes at 1500 metres. Highest peaks tower above the stratus The inversion layer is slowly lifting; coldest place near the cloud top

  12. Experiences above the clouds Low-polluted air Sunny and at least 5-8 degrees warmer conditions Very dry air (relative humidity 10-20%), high visibility Spectacular landscape with ”sea of clouds”

  13. Suffering in theplains • High concentrations of polluting materials • Foggy or misty air • The sky is overcast • Low temperature • Little diurnal temperature variation • Increasing number of asthma and lung diseases Source: http://owww.met.hu/pages/ 20111120_szmoghelyzet_november/

  14. Is it forecastable? • Although weather prediction models are usually unable to forecast theamount of low level clouds, the inversion layer will usually indicate it. • Forecasters’ experiences can help recognizing similar synoptic situations in time, and thedeveloping cold air pad is usually predicted successfully. • We usually measure the highest concentration of air pollution in the beginning of similar periods.

  15. CHIMERE model • Time step: 1-hour • Prediction system for CO2, NOx, O3, PM10 conc. variability • The concentration values are strongly influenced by weather • The weather parameters come from WRF limited area model • On the other hand, we know the emission sources, (power plants, factories, transportation) • The model calculates estimated emission data (based on early measured average data), and average daily transportation conditions.

  16. Thanks for your attention!

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