Congressional Results 2012

1. Congressional Results 2012

2. Opportunities to discuss course content • Thursday 10-2 • Friday 10-12

3. Learning Objectives • Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2012 Election. • Evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of how presidential and congressional elections are financed.

4. Goals of Congressperson • The Primary Goal is to Get Elected • The Next goal is to get re-elected (Mayhew, 1974)

5. Partisanship and turnout

6. Partisanship is Most Important • The biggest factor in Congressional election • Even in open seat elections

7. Safe Seats • Seat Maximization through Gerrymandering • Majority Minority Districts

8. Residential Self Selection

9. Major Factor 2 Incumbency

10. Incumbency • Can Eclipse Partisanship in some places • A resource that provides many benefits

11. Incumbency • The incumbent dominates the discourse • The incumbent has the advantages • It is the Incumbent’s seat to lose

12. Incumbent Benefit #1 - Money • Attract Money at Higher Rates • The War Chest

13. Incumbent Benefit #2 - Name Recognition • We Vote For Who We Know • What can Incumbents Do?

15. Benefit 3 – Weak Challengers • Run against Losers • Scare off Good Challengers

16. Spending My Own Money

17. Voluntary Retirements • When candidates leave office, rather than run for re-election. • Why people Retire?

18. Lose<Not Run<Win

19. How Incumbents can lose

20. Stop Playing the Game • Get too Old • Become inattentive • Scandal

21. Strategic Challengers can Alter This • They run when national trends favor their party • They have local advantages as well • They also have the most to lose!

22. How Strategic Challengers Change Campaigns • Attract Money • Can turn National Issues into Local Ones • Are Quality Challengers as Well

23. What is a Quality Challenger • A person who has formerly/currently held elective office • Name Recognition, Access to Money, a constituuency

24. Incumbency in the house and senate

25. House Incumbency

26. Senate Incumbency • Senators are More vulnerable

27. Going into 2012

28. Breakdown

29. Not a Wave Election

30. Why no wave? • We hated Congress, but no one specifically • The economy still wasn’t great • The negative campaign • Obama’s Popularity (too close to 50%)

31. The House of representatives

32. The Results (D+8)

33. The Importance of Partisanship • Republican Districts voted Republican, Democratic Districts voted Democratic • Balanced districts split almost evenly

34. Republican Exposure • The Republicans had more exposure • Very Few Toss-up Seats • Probably would have survived a wave.

35. The Democrats • Actually Won the Nationwide Popular Vote • Did not Take Back the House • Redistricting • Wasted Votes

36. Winners and Losers 2012

37. Redistricting • The process of redrawing districts within a state • State legislatures control the battle • Very Political

38. The Role of Redistricting • A Result of the 2002 election • GOP Legislatures controlled 202 seats • Democratic Legislatures controlled 47 seats

39. GOP Redistricting Tactics • Create safer seats • Remember the lesson of 2002

40. Republicans Have A Structural Advantage • Democrats are more compacted • Democratic areas are overwhelmingly democratic • Democrats are “safer”

41. Regional Voting Democrats Republicans South Upper Midwest • New England • California • West Coast

42. Money and the House

43. The 2014 Election • Not Many Toss-up Seats • Difficult to Reassemble Presidential Coalition • 6 year Itch

44. The Senate

45. The Dynamics • The More Incumbents you have, the more you have to Defend • 23 Democratic Seats • 10 Republican Seats • Democrats have a 53-47 lead

46. Where Were They?

47. The Results

48. What Explains the Results • Incumbency • Partisanship • Candidate Factors

49. Indiana • Supposed to be safe GOP • Richard Mourdock. • The GOP Loses by 6%

50. Missouri • Clair McCaskill is very vulnerable • Cross-over spending in the primary • Todd Akin loses by 15%