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Global Megatrends

Global Megatrends. The 2012 Update of Our Future World. Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist. Stefan Hajkowicz, Hannah Cook, Anna Littleboy. The Megatrends. 1. More From Less.

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Global Megatrends

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  1. Global Megatrends The 2012 Update of Our Future World Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz, Hannah Cook, Anna Littleboy

  2. The Megatrends

  3. 1. More From Less It suddenly struck me that that tiny pea, pretty and blue, was the Earth. I put up my thumb and shut one eye, and my thumb blotted out the planet Earth. I didn't feel like a giant. I felt very, very small. - Neil Armstrong

  4. Food

  5. 1.2 billion people in regions with insufficient water 1.6 billion people in water-scarce river basins with inadequate capacity to develop International Water Management Institute Water

  6. Energy Data source: International Energy Agency, 2011

  7. Minerals Source: Mudd GM, 2009. The Sustainability of Mining in Australia: Key Production Trends and Their Environmental Implications for the Future. Department of Civil Engineering, Monash University and Mineral Policy Institute.

  8. 2. Going, Going … Gone?

  9. Going, Going… Gone? • The fate of biological diversity for the next 10 million years will almost certainly be determined during the next 50–100 years by the activities of a single species. • Paul Ehrlich and Robert Pringle, PNAS 2008.

  10. Going, Going … Gone? Data Source: Global Biodiversity Outlook 3, Secretariat on the Convention on Biological Diversity, 2010

  11. Going, Going … Gone? Red List Red List Extinction Risk Index 1 = No concern 0 = Extinct Data Source: Global Biodiversity Outlook 3, Secretariat on the Convention on Biological Diversity, 2010 Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 11

  12. Going, Going ... Gone? Staying Put  Data Source: Global Biodiversity Outlook 3, Secretariat on the Convention on Biological Diversity, 2010

  13. 3. The Silk Highway

  14. The Silk Highway It’s Been So Good in Australia (comparatively) GDP Growth Rates Data source: World Bank

  15. The Silk Highway A Shifting World Economy Source: Quah, 2011; Global Policy

  16. The Silk Highway Making Cities in 20 Years What Took Europe 400 Years Image source: (c) The Chinese UPLA urban planning network, http://www.upla.cn Statistic derived from analysis of the United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects, The 2007 Revision Population Database Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 16

  17. 4. Forever Young As you grow older, you will discover that you have two hands, one for helping yourself, the other for helping others. - Audrey Hepburn

  18. Forever Young The Ageing Population – Australia Today we’re some 14% over 65 yrs old It will be 25% by 2050 Data Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

  19. Forever Young Retirement Savings Gap – Tapered Retirement Source: Rice Warner

  20. Forever Young Diabetes and Overweight Projections Source: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development

  21. Forever Young Wanting to Stay Active and Engaged Sydney, Australia Brisbane, Australia Melbourne, Australia Number of Competitors Edmonton, Canada Toronto, Canada Portland, Oregon, USA Aalborg, Aarhus & Herning Denmark Data Source: World Masters Association

  22. 5. Virtually Here

  23. Virtually Here The Growth of Online Retail Online as a Percentage of Total Retail Sales 20122015 5.1 % 10% Retail Sales Volume Source: Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, Australian Bureau of Statistics National Australia Bank report a 29% increase in online retail sales in 2011.

  24. Virtually Here Catch me if you can – New models of retail Tescos Virtual Grocery Walls Image Source: Flickr.com

  25. Virtually Here The Work (Live?) Anywhere City Currently 6% of Australian workers telecommute, 11% in the US and 10% in Europe (Access Economics). The Australian Government aims to increase teleworking to 12% of the workforce (DCDBE). In Queensland 58% of employees (1.1 million people) have a flexible work arrangement of some type. This includes 13.3% (253,000 people) working from home.

  26. Virtually Here The Offshoring Trend Data Source: BCG, OECD, NASSCOM

  27. Virtually Here The Offshoring Trend In Australia they cost $10,000 to $20,000 per month

  28. 6. Great Expectations Now, I return to this young fellow. And the communication I have got to make is, that he has great expectations. - Charles Dickens

  29. Great Expectations Maslow’s Hierarchy

  30. Great Expectations Declining Material Consumption Data Source: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development

  31. Great Expectations The Jury is out - Experiences make us happier Published studies showing materialism is detrimental to well being: 1985 - Journal of Consumer Research 1992 - Journal of Consumer Research 1993 - Journal of Consumer Satisfaction, Dissatisfaction, and Complaining Behavior 1993 - Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 2003 - Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 2007 - Family and Consumer Sciences Research Journal 2007 - Journal of Social and Clinical Psychology 2009 - The Journal of Positive Psychology Published studies showing buying life-experiences improves well being 2010 - Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 2009 - The Journal of Positive Psychology 2009 - Journal of Research in Personality 2003 – Journal of Personality and Social Psychology

  32. Great Expectations Utility - A non-linear relationship Not likely  Happiness (utility) More likely K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Beers (schooners)

  33. Great Expectations Increasing Importance of the “Whole Package” Fair Trade Logo Sales Revenue – The Moral Dimension Source: Fair Trade Australia and New Zealand

  34. Basic Expectations 24% < US$1.25/day (47% in 1990) 33% of people in urban slums 15.5 percent of the world’s population (1 billion) hungry United Nations, 2012

  35. Thank you Dr Stefan Hajkowicz Leader – CSIRO Futures | Principal Scientist t +61 7 3833 5540 e stefan.hajkowicz@csiro.au w www.csiro.au CSIRO FUTURES

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