Trends and Megatrends

1. Trends and Megatrends Ullrich Lorenz, Umweltbundesamt – Dessau, Germany Alexander Storch, Umweltbundesamt - Vienna, Austria Copenhagen, EIONET/FLIS, 18.11.2010

2. Structureofthepresentation • Somedefinitions .. • State oftheart, someexamples .. • SOER • EEA • European research on socio-economictrends • Examplesfrom Germany • Examplefrom Austria • Someconclusions, lessonslearned .. • Recommendationofthe „coordinationgroup“ of NRC FLIS fortheupcomingwork .. • A commontrendmonitoringsystem ..

3. Disclaimer: this is an intuitive text. There are definitions at http://ew.eea.europa.eu/research/info_resources/reports/Final_Literature_Review_Report_FINNov07_9473.pdf What‘s a microtrend?notable change with very limited effectsshort- or mid-term maybe a starting trend or only regionalWhat‘s a trend?basicchangewithsomeremarkableeffectsmid- orlong-termsometimes a startingmegatrendoronly regionalWhat‘s a megatrend?significant global changelong-termwide-ranging impacts

4. Assessment of global megatrends SOER 2010 focus on fivesetsofinterrelatedmegatrends social technological economical environmental political

5. urbanization • climate change • depletion of natural resources • unsustainability and pollution • technological speed SOER Part A : 11 Fact sheets for thematic assessments of global mega-trends demographic shifts economic growth increased global regulation multi-centric power structure resource competition pandemic risks

6. Example - EEA: SCP in Western Balkan Countries

7. Reserarch on socio-economictrends in Europe FORESCENEDevelopment of a Forecasting Framework and Scenarios to Support the EU Sustainable Development Strategy (FP6 Priority 8.1, 2005-2008) FOR-LEARNprovide on-line support to Foresight practitioners and users at local, regional, sectoral and national or trans-national level who are either running a Foresight exercise or planning to start one (FP6, DG-Res, ipts- Institute for Prospective Technological Studies 2005-2008) Literature review andmega trends of driving forces of future environmental change andworkshop on mega-trends and surprises- Research foresight for Environment and Sustainability –(EEA, 2007/2008) The METRIS ReportEmerging Trends in Socio-economicSciencesandHumanities in Europe (DG Res, 2009) GLOBAL EUROPE 2030/2050The world and Europe up to 2030/2050 - EU policies and research priorities – an expert group (DG Research – The world and Europe up to 2030/2050 - EU policies and research priorities / EU Research in Foresight and Forecast / SSH Socio-economicSciencesandHumanities; starting March 2010 for 24 months) Facing the future: time for the EU to meet global challenges(European Commission – JRC Joint Research Centre, ipts- Institute for Prospective Technological Studies 2010)

8. Exampleof Trend Analysis in UBA-Germany: Identifyingoffuture „hotspots“

9. Analysis of 6 megatrends Disclaimer: this work is not complete!

10. State oftheart: Megatrend Analysis Relative impactof „drivers“ on „Environmental pollution“ withfeedbackloops Relative impactof „drivers“ on „Environmental pollution“ withoutfeedbackloops

11. Energy prices for consumers rising Energy eficiency rising State oftheart: advancedcross-impact-analysisoftrends Extraction of Energy resources decreasing Regulation for energy eficiency Not necessarily! A causal relationship is determined by the context.

12. Somelessonslearned (in UBA Germany) so far… (SWOT)

13. Households -electricitydemand ? A microtrendstoryfrom Austria (1/4) Whatwill betheforwardlookingdemand? Year

14. Households -electricitydemand A microtrendstoryfrom Austria (2/4) Washing IT Infrastructure  IT and Entertainment  Cooking Cooling Lighting But therearesomedivergentsubtrends! Year

15. Households -electricitydemand Stabilisation, A microtrendstoryfrom Austria (3/4) Washing IT Infrastructure  IT and Entertainment  Cooking Cooling Lighting but just a compen-sationofenhanceddivergentsubtrends! Year

16. Suddenlymore fossil power isneeded! Households -electricitydemand A microtrendstoryfrom Austria (4/4) Washing IT Infrastructure  IT and Entertainment  Cooking Cooling Lighting Break-throughofthesubtrenddemand ! Year

17. Abilitytorespond on upcomingchanges earlydetection -> quick response delayedreaction -> repercussionsmultiply inertia -> postponementof urgent decisions

18. Conclusionsforthework in the NRC-FLIS The aimoffurtheractivitiesshouldbetofocus on • identificationofmaintrendsforthe European environment • interlinkagesandimpactsofthistrends • updatedinformation

19. Whatcan FLIS do toboostchancesof a smart policyresponse? Wecanco-operateto: checkincipient/emergingmicrotrends analyzeandmonitoreffects presentingresultsandset-upa warningsystem developcommonresponsestrategies

20. Whyshouldwelookfortrends? earlywarning in officalreports buildingrealisticscenarios lookingforadequatewaystoovercomesocio-economicobstacles => toprovide smart andup-to-datepolicyadvice

21. How a newtrendor a changecanbefound? Expertskeep an eye on drivingforcesbehindnewtrends statisticalclues pressuresandrisksby a multi-disciplinarysystematicsearch Scanning bysensitvepersonson anticipatedchanges enhancedrisks anxietiesandfears

22. Whatwould a commontrendmonitoringsystemlooklike? Sensoring–collectingsignalsfromindividuals Scanning – expert research Analysing– international networkofexperts Communicating– informationtodecisionmakers

23. Whatwouldbethebenefitsof a commontrendmonitoringsystem? currenttrendmonitoring watchfulmonitoringofearlysigns dynamicriskassessment broadknowledgepool