Population censuses and surveys as complementary sources of a vital statistical system

1. Population censuses and surveys as complementary sources of a vital statistical system László Kajdi Hungarian Central Statistical Office Expert Group Meeting on International Standards for Civil Registration and Vital Statistics Systems, 27-30 June 2011

2. Reasons for the development of the vital statistics system • Change in legal regulations • Change in technical, IT circumstances • New reuirements of political, social decision makers • Change of international data production demands • Needs of users, professional stakeholders • Changes in social-demographic processes

3. Hungarian vital statistics system Civil registration system: • Livebirths, deaths, including foetal and infant deaths • Marriages, registered partnerships, divorces Internal and international migration Legal background: Act on Statistics, decree on the implementation Comprehensive data collection, processing, dissemination Next census in October 2011

4. I. Vital statistics data and indicators based on census data • Vital statistics by socio-economic status (SES) • Fertility analyses • Projection of the female population by the number of children • Census data on migration • Differences between census and projected population

5. I.1 Vital statistics by SES • If census and vital statistics data linked by an identification number: directly • If there is no ID number: census population = denominator • 3 main indicators: education, occupation, economic status • Numerator-denominator bias; standards • LFS, HALE

6. I.2 Fertility analyses • Number of children by cohorts, analyses by SES • Sex preferences – level of fertility • Differences by legal and actual marital status • Information on ethnicity • Male fertility

7. I.3 Projection of the female population by the number of children • Female census population by date of birth, age, number of children as initial data • Tables from the data of annual livebirth and death statistics with the same disaggregation • The projection is based on the biological live birth order • Main purpose: analysis of fertility and childbearing behaviour by cohorts in intercensus years

8. I.4 Census data on migration • Fertility and mortality differences between the immigrating and native population • Census: improve the accuracy of migration data • Mirror statistics: use at other fields too, e.g. births and deaths in foreign countries

9. I.5 Differences between census and projected population • Is it worth to revise population data and indicators, in what disaggregation • No international standards for the acceptable deviation • No break in time series vs. two data for the same time period, resource need

10. II. Sample surveys as complementary information • Healthy life expectancy (HLE) • Unmet need for contraception • Voluntary and involuntary childlessness • Realizing childbearing intentions

11. II.1 Healthy life expectancy • Extended life expectancy vs. life quality • Measuring mortality conditions and health status paralell with time spent in good health conditions • Information on health status from repr. surveys, EU-SILC e.g. • Soft indicator: answers by self-assessment

12. II.2 Unmet need for contraception • Differences between developing and developed countries • Problems: sensitivity, resources • Hungarian experiences • Complementary indicator: induced abortions per hundred live births

13. II.3 Voluntary and involuntary childlessness • Countries with low fertility, trends of the age of childbearing and marriage • Reasons for childlessness: voluntary, involuntary • Social effects: Low fertility trap, health risk factors, social policy

14. II.4 Realizing childbearing intentions • Family planning – the use of modern contraceptive methods • Childbearing intentions vs. Actual fertility • Role of sample surveys, social policy • REPRO: 4 countries: Bulgaria, Hungary, Netherlands, Switzerland; 3 categories: intentional parents, postponers, abandoners

15. Thank you for your attention!