1 / 13

S. Berg

DESCRIBING SIMULATIONS. S. Berg. T T R C. - Definition of the probability tool. - Statement of how the tool models the situation. T ool:. T rial:. - Definition of a trial. - Definition of a successful outcome of the trial. R esults:.

brandy
Download Presentation

S. Berg

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. DESCRIBING SIMULATIONS S. Berg

  2. T T R C - Definition of the probability tool - Statement of how the tool models the situation Tool: Trial: - Definition of a trial - Definition of a successful outcome of the trial Results: • Statement of how the results will be tabulated giving an example of a successful outcome and an unsuccessful outcome - Statement of how many trials should be carried out Calculation: - Statement of how the calculation needed for the conclusion will be done MEAN = Sum of trial results Number of trials

  3. TRUE - FALSE TEST PROBLEM • Paul has not studied for his history test. • He does not know any of the answers on an eight question true-false test, and he decides to guess on all eight questions. • Design a simulation to estimate the probability that Paul will “Pass” the test. (ie. Guess the correct answers to four or more of the eight questions)

  4. Soln - True - False test problem • CALCULATOR (10 Ran# +1) • (RAN# =OPTN / F6 / F3 / F4 / F1) • 1 to 5 = Correct Answer • 6 to 10 = Wrong Answer Tool: Trial: - One trial = generating 8 random numbers • A successful outcome is gaining 4OR MORE numbers from 1 to 5 inclusive MEAN = Sum of trial results Number of trials

  5. Results: - Repeat for 30 trials Calculation: PROB OF PASS= Nos successful trials 30

  6. MINIBUS PROBLEM • Bob drives a minibus that has 8 seats • People buy tickets in advance, but on average, 30% of those who buy tickets do not show up. • So Bob has decided to pre-sell ten tickets for each trip. • Sometimes more than eight people show up with tickets and Bob is obviously embarrassed. • Design a simulation to estimate the probability that Bob will be embarrassed.

  7. Soln - MINIBUS PROBLEM • CALCULATOR (10 Ran# +1) • 1 to 3 = Passenger doen’t show up • 4 to 10 = Passenger shows up Tool: Trial: - One trial = generating 10 random numbers • Bob will be embarrassed if there are MORE THAN 8 numbers from 4 to 10 inclusive MEAN = Sum of trial results Number of trials

  8. Results: - Repeat for 30 trials Calculation: PROB OF EMBARRASSEMNENT = Nos successful trials 30

  9. CEREAL CARDS • A cereal manufacturer includes a gift coupon in each box of its best selling brand. • The coupons can be exchanged for a gift when a complete set of 6 coupons have been collected. • Design a simulation to calculate the EXPECTED NUMBER of cereal boxes you would have to buy to obtain a complete set of six coupons.

  10. Soln - CEREAL CARDS • CALCULATOR (6 Ran# +1) • 1 to 6 = Each of the 6 different cards Tool: Trial: - One trial = generating random numbers until you have at least one of each number MEAN = Sum of trial results Number of trials

  11. Results: - Repeat for 30 trials Calculation: E(Boxes of Cereal)= Sum of Results Column 30

  12. Copy and complete the table for the relative frequency of flipping a coin 50 times

  13. GRAPH YOUR RESULTS • Compare your results with the first graph you drew. • What do you notice?

More Related