Ag outlook La Niña winter 2010

1. Ag outlookLa Niña winter 2010 Clyde Fraisse Agricultural and Biological Engineering University of Florida November 18, 2010 Albany, GA

2. Potential Impacts on AgricultureLa Niña 2010-2011 • Winter vegetables • Winter pasture • Temperate fruits • Forestry • Row crops

3. Major Freezes in Florida Citrus Adapted from: John Attaway, “A History of Florida Citrus Freezes

4. Winter Vegetables • Tomato and green peppers generally yield more during La Niña years than during Neutral or El Niño years. • Dry weather associated with La Niña generally decreases fungal and bacterial diseases. Increased solar radiation is also a factor. Source: Hansen, J.W., Hodges, A.W., Jones, J.W., 1998. ENSO influences on agriculture in the southeastern US. J. Climate 11 (3), 404–411.

5. Winter Pasture • Success of winter pastures depends on rainfall. This is especially true when overseeding. • In central and south peninsular Florida, overseeding of cool-season annuals into an established grass sod often fails due to insufficient soil moisture

6. Winter Pasture • Based on the current dry conditions across parts of the Southeast and the probability of a dry winter, the following considerations should be made in regard to winter pasture: • Soil moisture at planting will be an important factor for success, postpone planting If the soil is dry; • Prioritize planting in prepared seedbeds where chances of success are higher, avoid overseeding; • Plant in best fields that typically hold moisture in the winter; • Don’t invest only in winter forage, save some dollars for feed purchase; • Be prepared to reduce stocking rates and number of grazing days with the expected reduced rainfall.

7. Temperate Fruits • Seasonal climate variability impacts deciduous fruit production mainly because of a decrease in the satisfaction of dormancy that occurs by the accumulation of chilling hours (temperature at or below 45°F)

8. C. W. Fraisse, Agricultural & Biological Engineering Chill Accumulation Variability • Chill hours variability in: • Alachua • Hendry • Hernando • Marion • Pasco • Polk • Sumter • Chill Hours (32°F ≤ T < 45°F) • From Oct 1st to Feb 28th • Entire period of records 1948-2007 • Different ENSO phases: • Neutral • El Niño • La Niña

9. C. W. Fraisse, Agricultural & Biological Engineering Chill Accumulation Averages Entire Period of Records

10. El Niño - Southern OscillationMarion County 1948-2007

13. Temperate Fruits - Diseases • The dry weather during La Niña years is usually not conducive to fungal diseases such as Anthracnose and Botrytis fruit rots. • Regular applications of fungicides may not be needed as often to suppress these diseases.

14. C. W. Fraisse, Agricultural & Biological Engineering Seasonal Forecast of Disease PressurePlant City, Florida – 1892 to 2009

15. Forestry • Managers could consider: • Re-scheduling planting of drought vulnerable seedlings • Reinforce existing control efforts of southern pine beetle • Delay the harvest of pine straw to retain soil moisture • La Niña also brings the potential for a very active wildfire season.

16. Row Crops • Warmer and/or drier conditions may help certain pests and diseases: • Warm, dry winter may increase flower thripsabundance • Warm conditions may also help soybean rust over-winter on kudzu in South Georgia and throughout the Panhandle of Florida If conditions are dry during the spring it may be best to kill cover crops earlier in order to preserve more moisture in the soil

17. Drought Monitoring and Forecasting

18. Agricultural Reference Index for DroughtNOAA-Sector Applications Research Program Objective: Develop a decision support system on AgroClimate specifically designed to help forage producers cope and adapt to drought conditions in the southeastern USA AgroClimate Cycle

19. Drought Workshops w/ Forage Producers Fanning Springs, FL October 14, 2010 Tifton, GA October 15, 2010

20. Extension Newsletters and Ag Press

21. Extension Newsletters and Ag Press