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2009/2010 Winter Review and 2010 Summer Outlook

2009/2010 Winter Review and 2010 Summer Outlook. Reliability Committee Meeting March 17, 2010 Michael Taniwha Director, Operations. Overview. Winter 2009/2010 Review Summer 2009 Review New Major Transmission Projects 2010 Summer Action Plan 2010 Summer Outlook. Winter 2009/2010 Review.

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2009/2010 Winter Review and 2010 Summer Outlook

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  1. 2009/2010 Winter Review and 2010 Summer Outlook Reliability Committee Meeting March 17, 2010 Michael Taniwha Director, Operations

  2. Overview Winter 2009/2010 Review Summer 2009 Review New Major Transmission Projects 2010 Summer Action Plan 2010 Summer Outlook

  3. Winter 2009/2010 Review • Winter generally milder • Winter peak 20,743 MW on December 17, 2009 • Previous all time winter peak 22,727 MW on January 15, 2004 • No OP4 actions required • No gas supply issues • New LNG facilities at Canaport and Northeast Gateway utilized to meet winter gas demand

  4. Summer 2009 Review • Last summer generally cooler • Last summer’s peak 25,177 MW on August 18, 2009 • Previous all time peak load was 28,130 MW on August 2, 2006 • No OP4 actions required

  5. New Major Transmission Projects • New transmission • West Amesbury 345/115 kV substation (MA) • Wakefield Junction 345/115 kV substation (MA) • 2nd South Gorham 345/115 kV autotransformer (ME) • Vernon 345/115 kV substation (VT) • Saco Valley PAR (ME/NH) • New reactive resources • West Walpole 345 kV variable reactor 160 MVAr (MA) • Edgar 115 kV shunt reactors 2 x 40 MVAr (MA) • West Framingham 54 MVAr shunt capacitor (MA) • Barnstable SVC (MA)

  6. 2010 Summer Action Plan • Summer Capacity Outlook Communications • Transmission Operators • Master/Local Control Center (M/LCC) Heads • OP4 Contacts • Utilities, State Regulators, State Emergency Mgmt, FERC & NERC • NPCC/NERC • System Readiness • Verified with Local Control Centers (LCCs) Critical Transmission Inspection/Maintenance Being Performed by Transmission Owners • Review Long-Term Outage Schedule • Review/Monitor Generation Maintenance Schedules

  7. 2010 Summer Action Plan (cont.) • Voltage Reduction Test • Completed May 11, 2010 • Review of Operating Procedures (OPs) & Transmission Operating Guides (TOGs) • ISO-NE Emergency Operating Procedures: OP4, OP6, OP7, OP21 & M/LCC2 • Area Transmission Operating Guides • Emergency Operations Training • ISO & Local Control Center Operators • Generator & Demand Resource Operators

  8. ISO-NE Daily System Peak Load

  9. What is this Summer Looking Like? • Summer 2010 Peak Load Exposure Forecast • Summer 50/50 peak load forecast 26,607 MW • Summer 90/10 peak load forecast 28,727 MW • Forecast includes 2010 adjustment for other passive demand resources (ODRs) ~ 583 MW. • Negative operable capacity margins for all peak load exposure weeks during the summer months of June, July, and August at 50/50 and 90/10 load levels are projected • Generator planned outage requests during the peak load exposure weeks during June, July, and August are not being approved per ISO-NE Operating Procedure No. 5 – Maintenance Scheduling (OP5)

  10. Summer 2010 Operable Capacity Analysis

  11. Possible Relief Actions Under OP4 • Assumes 25% of total MW Settlement Only resources available and respond. • Performance factor applied, does not include non-commercial Demand Response resources and reserve margin gross-up MW. • OP-4 Actions based on a 28,048 MW system load

  12. Questions?

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