CWG COA Program Review Panel #8 Space-based Observing Systems and Related Data Stewardship

1. CWG COA Program ReviewPanel #8Space-based Observing Systems and Related Data Stewardship Panel Moderator: Mark Abbott Chair: Jeff Privette April 13, 2007

2. COA Program Review Panel 8: Space Obs. & Stewardship • Activities • Planning support of climate-related satellite missions • Cost studies • Variable prioritization • Climate Data Record (CDR) development and stewardship • Support of sensor calibration, pre- and post-launch characterization • Sensor monitoring • Algorithm development/refinement • CDR (re-)processing and configuration management (CM) • Product validation • Data Handling (documentation, metadata, QA, data librarian functions) • CDRs • Cal/Val data, including sensor performance and configuration • CLASS interfacing

3. Key Questions • What is NOAA’s role in space observing and related data stewardship in Climate and what are NOAA’s expectations? • What is the current status of NOAA/NASA activities related to Nunn-McCurdy and NRC Decadal Survey? • What role can (should) COA or the Climate Goal play in the satellite observing system? • How are we working to overcome current obstacles to success? • How does the interagency “process” factor into the Climate Goal (including research to operations)? • What are the impediments and solution to developing climate data records?

4. Outline • Scientific Data Stewardship – History • Steps Toward Operational Production of Climate Data Records • Prioritization • Production • Productivity • Climate Goal response to NPOESS Nunn-McCurdy and Decadal Survey

5. Outline • Scientific Data Stewardship – History • Steps Toward Operational Production of Climate Data Records • Prioritization • Production • Productivity • Climate Goal response to NPOESS Nunn-McCurdy and Decadal Survey

6. Scientific Data Stewardship • NOAA’s Scientific Data Stewardship rooted in NRC dialogue and reports • NOAA/NRC SDS leads • Bates • Goldberg

7. NRC – NOAA Response • With the transition of the U.S. Global Change Research Program into the Climate Change Science Program (CCSP), NOAA was identified as the lead U.S. Agency on climate. • NOAA’s new climate mandate is fundamentally different from its traditional weather forecasting mandate and raises a new set of challenges owing to the varied uses of climate data, the complexities of data generation, and the difficulties in sustaining the program indefinitely. • In response to this change and the planned transition of NASA research climate observing missions to the NPOESS mission, the Scientific Data Stewardship Project was proposed to begin the operational production of climate data records.

8. Key Elements of a Successful CDR Program A Climate Data Record (CDR) is a time series of measurements of sufficient length, consistency, and continuity to determine climate variability and change • CDR Organizational Elements • High-level leadership council • Advisory council to represent climate research community and other stakeholders • Fundamental Climate Data Record (FCDR) Teams • Thematic Climate Data Record (TCDR) Teams • CDR Generation Elements • High accuracy and stability of FCDRs • Pre-launch characterization of sensors and lifetime monitoring • Thorough calibration of sensors • Well-defined criteria for TCDR selection • Stakeholder involvement and feedback for TCDRs • Well-defined criteria for TCDR validation • Use of in-situ data for validation • Sustaining CDR Elements • Available resources for reprocessing CDRs as new information becomes available • Provisions for feedback from scientific community • Long-term commitment of resources for generation and archiving of CDRs and associated data Fundamental Climate Data Record (FCDR): Time series of calibrated signals for a family of sensors together with the ancillary data used to calibrate them. Thematic Climate Data Record (TCDR): Geophysical variables derived from FCDRs, often generated by blending satellite observations, in-situ data, and model output.

9. NOAA’s Scientific Data Stewardship Program FY06 EDSM $2.5M C2D2 $1 to $1.5M Governance and Management Structure Scientific Data Stewardship Program Management NOAA Climate Program & Climate Board NOAA (5-10%) C2D2 NCDC ORA NOAA Observing System Council Scientific Data Stewardship CLASS Working Group NOAA Science Advisory Board Climate Working Group External (1-2%) Operational CDR Generation & Data Mgmt. NOAA, Other Agencies External Scientific (~90%) Research to Operations Research Climate Data Science Teams CDR Generation NOAA Other Agencies Universities Private Sector CLASS NOAA IT Infrastructure operators FCDR Teams Observations Scoping Requirement Systems TCDR Teams R&D Products and Services Theme Areas 9 Currently exists FY05 FY06

10. Global Space-based Inter-Calibration System(GSICS) Research WG Data WG OBJECTIVES • Improve global satellite data sets by ensuring observations are well calibrated through operational analysis of instrument performance, satellite intercalibration, and validation over reference sites • Provide ability to re-calibrate archived satellite data with consensus GSICS approach, leading to stable fundamental climate data records (FCDR) • Ensure pre-launch testing is traceable to SI standards IMPLEMENTATION • NESDIS/STAR coordination • International participation STATUS • GSICS-1 convened in January 2007 • Method intercomparison underway NEXT STEPS • Commission routine web-accessible on-orbit intercalibration monitoring statistics of MTSAT, MSG and GOES IR imagers with high spectral resolution IASI and AIRS; and intercalibration statistics between EUMETSAT and NOAA IR and MW sounder/imagers (e.g. AIRS vs IASI, MODIS vs AVHRR, HIRS vs IASI) Calibration Support Segments (reference sites, benchmark measurements) Coordination Center Regional Processing Research Centers at Operational Space Agencies

11. Outline • Scientific Data Stewardship – History • Steps Toward Operational Production of Climate Data Records • Prioritization • Production • Productivity • Climate Goal response to NPOESS Nunn-McCurdy and Decadal Survey

12. Operational Climate Data Records –Prioritization, Production, & Productivity

13. Determining Societal Benefits and Scientific Questions • CCSP identified • Thematic Areas where data may provide societal benefit • Scientific Questions for which data are needed to address • Societal Benefits of the Global Earth Observations System of Systems (GEOSS) emphasize applied climatology using 21st century systems • Scientific Questions Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Issues address the policy-relevant research topics of highest priority for Climate and Global Change studies

14. Prioritization Approach • CCSP and Other Groups have identified ~40 “Essential Climate Variables” (ECVs) q • e.g., Total Solar Irradiance, Snow Cover, Ozone • ECV weighting scheme reflects the expected contribution of a data set to each of the Thematic Areas and Scientific Questions • Prioritization results from strength & breadth of contribution • Trying to avoid disciplinary myopia • Adding additional information based on availability of current and past data sets

15. Outline • Scientific Data Stewardship – History • Steps Toward Operational Production of Climate Data Records • Prioritization • Production • Productivity • Climate Goal response to NPOESS Nunn-McCurdy and Decadal Survey

16. Production of CDRs vs. EDRs Climate Data Records Data (Direct & Remotely Sensed) Time-tagged Geo-Referenced Sensor DataRecords (SDRs) Converted to Bio-Geophysical Variables Homogenization and Calibration EnvironmentalData Records(EDRs) Fundamental Climate Data Records (FCDRs) Climate Data Records or Homogenized Time Series Converted to Bio-Geophysical Variables Reprocessing Thematic Climate Data Records(TCDRs)

17. NOAA CDR Production – “Climate Central” Requirements • For reprocessing, SDS requires an IDPS-like system (Climate Central) to process: • SDS interdependent with CLASS, e.g., large data set I/O • Reprocessing • Requires full production engineering NOAA/CLASS Users NOAA SDS CLIMATE CENTRAL ACQUIRE RDRs IMPROVED SDRs MULTISATELLITE FCDRs RDR SDR Multi-satellite FCDRs & TCDRs PROCESS TCDRs PROVIDE ASSESSMENTS IMPROVEMENTS Products and Services Provide FCDRs and TCDRs

18. Existing Site Planned Site Courtesy: A. Heidinger, UWisc. Merced (CA) Stovepipe Wells (CA) Death Valley National Park • CRN data are already used to evaluate satellite products in project studies

19. Production Example Reynolds SST Data Flow Diagram

20. Production – Full Provenance Tracking 3 Days of Reynolds SST

21. Outline • Scientific Data Stewardship – History • Steps Toward Operational Production of Climate Data Records • Prioritization • Production • Productivity • Climate Goal response to NPOESS Nunn-McCurdy and Decadal Survey

22. Productivity - Hurricane Intensity Reanalysis • Hurricane intensity historically estimated from “best track” data, in spite of its inherent temporal heterogeneities • NCDC provided homogeneous 23-year satellite data set (~CDR) • >20 satellites in 14 formats • Removed intra-series and temporal biases • Comprise ~169,000 observations (~2000 storms) • UW developed an objective analysis algorithm to work with NCDC data • Algorithm trained in N. Atlantic and E. Pacific • Very similar to objective Dvorak technique which is valid in all oceanic basins • “UW/NCDC” intensities have little temporal bias ~169,000 images ~2,000 tropical cyclones

23. Outline • Scientific Data Stewardship – History • Steps Toward Operational Production of Climate Data Records • Prioritization • Production • Productivity • Climate Goal response to NPOESS Nunn-McCurdy and Decadal Survey

24. Impacts of NPOESS Nunn-McCurdy Certification on Joint NASA-NOAA Climate Goals Recent Activities IMPACTS OF NPOESS NUNN-McCURDY CERTIFICATION ON JOINT NASA-NOAA CLIMATE GOALS January 8, 2007 • June 2006: NPOESS Nunn-McCurdy Certification approved • June 2006 : NOAA-NASA brief OSTP on impacts of Certification on the nation’s climate goals • January 2007: NOAA-NASA deliver a Joint Assessment (“White Paper”) to OSTP (72 pp.) • Focused on Certification’s climate impacts and recovery options • Major emphasis on sustaining climate data records • Climate Change Science Program / Global Climate Observing System lists • Primarily followed Certification Board recommendation • Procuring lost sensors outside of Integrated Program Office (IPO) • Remanifesting sensors onto NPOESS platforms (IPO would cover integration) • February 2007: NRC Decadal Survey • Recommends “restore key observational capabilities to NPOESS” • NOAA: • Measurements of solar irradiance and Earth radiation budget • Measurements of ocean vector winds and all-weather SST • OMPS-Limb (high vertical resolution ozone sounding)

25. NPOESS ECV Coverage ALT (4) • SEA STATE • SEA LEVEL • LAKES MIS (W/ OVW CAPABILITY) (10) • GLACIERS/ICE CAPS • ALBEDO (SURFACE) • LAND SURFACE TEMP • LAND COVER • OCEAN COLOR • VEGETATION LEAF AREA • VEGETATION FAPAR • FIRES DISTURBANCE • PRECIPITATION • SURFACE WIND SPD & DIRECTION • CLOUD PROPERTIES • SEA ICE • SNOW COVER • SEA SURFACE TEMP • UPPER AIR WIND (POLES) VIIRS (14) SESS (0) • ATMOS. WATER VAPOR • UPPER AIR TEMP • RADIATION BUDGET (SFC & TOA) CrIS/ATMS (4) ERBS/CERES) (1) • OZONE • METHANE, CO2, GHG • AEROSOL PROPERTIES APS (1) OMPS (2) • SOLAR IRRADIANCE TSIS (1) • Homeless: • OCEAN SALINITY • BIOMASS

26. Impacts of Nunn-McCurdy By Sensor De-manifested Sensors in Science Priority • Total Solar Irradiance Sensor (TSIS) • Earth Radiation Budget Sensor (ERBS) • Ocean Altimeter (ALT) • Ozone Mapping & Profiler Suite (OMPS) Limb Subsystem • Aerosol Polarimeter Sensor (APS) • Mid-AM VIIRS

27. NPOESS ECV Coverage • LAKES MIS (10) • GLACIERS/ICE CAPS • ALBEDO (SURFACE) • LAND SURFACE TEMP • LAND COVER • OCEAN COLOR • VEGETATION LEAF AREA • VEGETATION FAPAR • FIRES DISTURBANCE • PRECIPITATION • SURFACE WIND SPD & DIRECTION • CLOUD PROPERTIES • SEA ICE • SNOW COVER • SEA SURFACE TEMP • UPPER AIR WIND (POLES) VIIRS (14) • ATMOS. WATER VAPOR • UPPER AIR TEMP CrIS/ATMS (4) • OZONE • METHANE, CO2, GHG OMPS (2) = Downgraded capability (via orbit, component or requirement losses)

28. Global Essential Climate Variables (ECVS- Groups of CDRs) with Heritage Records

29. Current Related Activities • February 2007: OSTP requests a NOAA-NASA cost/risk study • Remanifestation of sensors onto NPOESS (Two options) • Option 1 – NPOESS/IPO procures the sensors • Option 2 – “GFE” sensors to IPO for integration on NPOESS satellites • Parallel cost-study of alternative options • Free-flyers, foreign missions, etc • Spring 2007: Decadal Survey Committee initiating a supplemental study • NPOESS and GOES-R (HES) impacts and mitigation • 3-day workshop in May/June 2007 • Decadal Survey Response • Capitalization of NOAA Satellite Systems • NOAA-NASA Research-to-Ops (R2O) collaboration report to Congress

30. OSTP Action • Excerpts from OSTP communiqué on 2/07/07 in response to the NOAA-NASA Joint Assessment • “more analysis is needed in terms of possible mitigation options for those impacts (the paper currently focuses only on re-manifesting sensors onto NPOESS but does not look at projected costs or other mitigation strategies)” • “it is important to begin assessing the potential costs of such strategies (both for the NPOESS-based solutions as well as other possible mitigation options), so that we can more clearly understand the trade-offs of various approaches.” • “goal is to have enough information available in time to inform the FY2009 budget process.   To meet that goal, the analyses outlined above would be most helpful if completed by May 1st.”

31. Plan • Priority is to avoid or minimize measurement gaps • Estimate costs of sensor procurement and integration • Demanifested sensors only (altimeter, APS, ERBS, OMPS-Limb, TSIS) • Initial estimates: per-sensor basis for flights on NPOESS C2-C4 only • Altimetry flights on different platforms (Joint Assessment recommendation) • NASA GFE approach • NOAA/IPO approach • Estimate costs of Climate Science Support • Per-sensor estimates for all sensors • Certified / Demanifested / Alternatives • Initial estimates cover NPOESS C2-C4 and gap-filler flights • NASA research missions, foreign-supplied raw data • Complete life-cycle costs (2008-2026) • Develop spreadsheet model for initial estimations • Develop a comprehensive computer model in parallel • More refined estimations at a later date • Incorporates sensor expert guidance • NOAA + Co-op institutions

32. Team Organization • Steering: Mary Kicza and Mike Freilich • Leads: • NOAA: Jeff Privette and Jim O’Neal • NASA: Bryant Cramer and Steve Neeck • Ex Officio: Chet Koblinsky, Tom Karl, Mike Tanner • Working Group: • NOAA Chief Financial Office: Darrell Robertson and Mahendra Shrestha • PEO/SUAG Representative: Mike Bonadonna • Cost Modeling • Consultants: John Bates (NOAA), Dave Young (NASA/Langley & NESDIS HQ) • Detailed model development: Bruce Barkstrom (NOAA) • Sensor Expert Teams • TSIS: Rossow (City University of New York [CUNY]), Barkstrom (NOAA) • ERBS: Rossow (CUNY), Ackerman (Wisconsin) • ALT: Wilson (NOAA), Miller (NOAA) • OMPS-Limb: Flynn (NOAA), Ravishankara (NOAA) • APS: Murphy (NOAA), Ravishankara (NOAA) • CMIS: Janowiak (NOAA), Chang (NOAA), Chelton (Oregon), Arkin (Maryland) • CrIMMS: Barnett (NOAA), Goldberg (NOAA) • VIIRS: Menzel (NOAA), Reynolds (NOAA), Privette (NOAA) • Support: Goldberg (NOAA), Menzel (Wisconsin), Justice (UMD), Weng (JCSDA)

33. Initially Costed Procurements Assumed Flight: Not Costed Potential Flight: Not Costed NPOESS Mitigation Flight: Costed FOO SORCE Glory C2 C4 FOO NPP/ CERES Terra, Aqua C3/ERBS OSTM Jason-4* Jason-1 Jason-3* Jason-5* C3 Aura FOO NPP Aqua C3/MIS C4/MIS C2/MIS QuikSCAT XOVWM1* XOVWM2* XOVWM3* Glory C3 FOO Terra (MODIS) MetOp-A (AVHRR) MetOp-B (AVHRR) MetOp-C (AVHRR) • *Jason series is TBD. XOVWM represents scatterometer data from yet unidentified source(s). • Flights shown in yellow: procurement/integration costs pending NASA study completion (~Apr.20) • Climate Science Support costs assume all Certified, Mitigated and heritage sensors (all years)

34. DS Response: Approach • Focus on the Observing Requirements behind the recommended solutions (missions) • Place continuity as most important attribute • Exploit existing NOAA Processes • NOAA Observing Systems Architecture (NOSA) • Gap Analysis and Solution Determination (GASD) Process • PPBES

35. Gap Analysis and Solution Determination (GASD) Suggested Solutions =f(Measurements)

36. Assessing DS Mission RecommendationsIn NOAA Context (NOSA) Example: Ocean Winds

37. SDS Addresses “Climate Central” Recommendation • NOAA, working with the Climate Change Science Program and the international Group on Earth Observations, should create a climate data and information system to meet the challenge of ensuring theproduction, distribution, and stewardship of high-accuracy climate records from NPOESS and other relevant observational platforms -- DS, p. 3-4

38. Key Questions • What is NOAA’s role in space observing and related data stewardship in Climate and what are NOAA’s expectations? • What is the current status of NOAA/NASA activities related to Nunn-McCurdy and NRC Decadal Survey? • What role can (should) COA or the Climate Goal play in the satellite observing system? • How are we working to overcome current obstacles to success? • How does the interagency “process” factor into the Climate Goal (including research to operations)? • What are the impediments and solution to developing climate data records?

39. Key Questions • What is NOAA’s role in space observing and related data stewardship in Climate and what are NOAA’s expectations? • Mission Planning, Project Management (Production, Stewardship) • Requirements: Appropriate funding ramp-up; interagency execution • Contingency planning • What is the current status of NOAA/NASA activities related to Nunn-McCurdy and NRC Decadal Survey? • NOAA’s FY09+ budget request assumes Nunn-McCurdy mitigation • Decadal Survey under consideration vis-à-vis Agency requirements • What role can (should) COA or the Climate Goal play in the satellite observing system? • Mission Planning, Project Management (Production, Stewardship) • How are we working to overcome current obstacles to success? • End-to-end vision (vs. piecemeal), procuring expertise and experience • Strong interaction with NOAA and NASA management • How does the interagency “process” factor into the Climate Goal (including research to operations)? • High level planning: Joint Working Group for Research and Operations • Project level planning: anticipates skills and contributions from outside NOAA • What are the impediments and solution to developing climate data records? • Impediment: Inadequate Funding. Solution: Adequate Funding.

40. Conclusions • The foundations of operational production of satellite CDRs has begun within NCDC • Prioritization, production, and productivity has been scoped and analogs begun using current data sets • Resource requirements for SDS are now being captured in the NPOESS climate remanifesting exercises

41. COA Program Review Panel 8: Space Obs. & Stewardship The End

42. Back up: Production Subsystems

43. Production Eng. Considerations • Essential Climate Variables – and the deeper ties to individual parameters and data structures contained in the files that usually contain archived data • Justification and Prioritization– provide the ties between ECVs and the societal benefits as well as scientific issues • Data Sources– the platforms and instruments that provide the Level 0 data, including satellite-based and in-situ sources • Data Set Versions– data collections that have common contents, common time intervals of data collection, common data sources, and homogeneous error structures • Data Flow Diagrams– and the extensions that provide the connectivity between different data sources and data versions • Uncertainty Assessments– which we treat like error budgets, with the added assessment of systematic biases and probability distributions • Production Schedules– based on both data sources and (re-)processing expectations

44. Brief History of Prioritization • What is the relative “value” of a given data set? • CCSP Prioritization Workshop (June 2006) • Difficulty in balancing satellite measurement priorities with in-situ priorities – and priorities of different communities • Success constrained by 2-D spreadsheets • Initial Development of a Hypertext Alternative • Hypertext (Web-based) navigation approach provides better balance between complexity and understandability • Led to a representation showing how Essential Climate Variables interact with • Scientific Questions • Societal Benefits

45. Prioritization - Future Work • Extend Input Opportunities • Creating web site with extensive information on satellites, instruments, in-situ data sources, and data products • Need Deeper and More Rigorous Approach to Prioritization • Can we quantify the economic value of climate data? • Can we quantify the required “Signal to Noise” for climate data on a rigorous basis? • Rigorous error budgets – and identification of physical basis for error estimates • Objective approaches to weighting influence of different variables on climate change (e.g. OSSEs)

46. NPOESS Study: Next Steps • Review options for extending current acquisition strategies • APS, TSIS, CERES/ERBS, OMPS-Limb • Review options for international partnerships • Develop risk assessment using sensor TRL • Define NASA-NOAA roles and responsibilities • Develop climate budget profile for FY2009-2015 • Continue to refine costs • OSTP May 1, 2007 delivery • OMB clearance • Terms-of-reference for in-depth study • Refine climate activities, costs, partnerships (incl. foreign)