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CWG COA Program Review Panel #6 Detection and Attribution

CWG COA Program Review Panel #6 Detection and Attribution. Panel Moderator: Jonathan Overpeck Chair: David Easterling April 12, 2007. COA Program Review Panel 6: Detection and Attribution. Outline

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CWG COA Program Review Panel #6 Detection and Attribution

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  1. CWG COA Program ReviewPanel #6Detection and Attribution Panel Moderator: Jonathan Overpeck Chair: David Easterling April 12, 2007

  2. COA Program Review Panel 6: Detection and Attribution Outline How is NOAA addressing issues of detection and attribution? • Research activities within NOAA • Research activities funded by NOAA (C2D2) • International Detection and Attribution Group (IDAG) • Grants • CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products • Proposed Attribution Service

  3. COA Program Review Panel 6: Detection and Attribution • Research and Activities within NOAA (examples): • GFDL • Assessment of Twentieth-Century regional surface temperature trends using the GFDL CM2 coupled models (Knutson et al. 2006) • The impact of aerosols on simulated ocean temperature and heat content in the 20th century (Delworth et al. 2005) • Simulation of Sahel drought in the 20th and 21st centuries (Held et al. 2005). • ESRL • Real-time attribution: 2006 EOS article  "Warm Oceans Raise Land Temperatures"  (Hoerling and Kumar). Fulfills the  NOAA/OAR Performance Milestone in  2006  for an Attribution Report • "Detection and Attribution of 20th Century Northern and Southern African  Precipitation Change" (Hoerling et al. 2006) . • Antarctic temperature (Thompson and Solomon) • NCDC • State of the Climate report • Detection of changes in the observed record (e.g. heavy precipitation changes, snowfall changes, max-min-dtr trends, etc.). • NOAA's Seasonal Climate Diagnostics Consortium.....           NOAA/CPC, NOAA/ESRL, IRI, and NASA/GMAO......                CPO funded via CDEP-flexible grants program. • CPC Monthly Outlook Conference Call

  4. COA Program Review Panel 6: Detection and Attribution • Research funded by Climate Change Data and Detection (C2D2). • International Detection and Attribution Group (IDAG). • For several years, C2D2, in collaboration with DOE, has supported an ad hoc International Detection and Attribution Group (IDAG) as part of an overall detection and attribution thrust • Membership: US, Canada, UK, Germany, Australia (leaders in their countries' climate research; several IPCC authors)

  5. COA Program Review Panel 6: Detection and Attribution • International Detection and Attribution Group (IDAG). • Detection/Attribution Elements: • provide high quality data sets needed to document decadal-scale and longer climate variations and changes • develop and implement robust statistical techniques (e.g., optimal signal detection, Bayesian statistics) • use the paleo record to bracket the range of natural variability and validate model estimates of natural variability

  6. COA Program Review Panel 6: Detection and Attribution • International Detection and Attribution Group (IDAG). • Detection/Attribution Elements: • analyze the observational record and GCM model output to identify and differentiate among climate signals, perform intercomparisons between “observed” and “modeled”, and quantify uncertainties • pursue a multivariate approach to detection (i.e., primary and secondary detection variables with favorable signal-to noise ratios; variables of societal importance)

  7. COA Program Review Panel 6: Detection and Attribution • International Detection and Attribution Group (IDAG). • Initial Focus: global scale – principally, temperature • Current Foci: global scale – key issues after IPCC AR4 regional scale – precipitation, extremes, western US snow pack, etc.

  8. COA Program Review Panel 6: Detection and Attribution • International Detection and Attribution Group (IDAG). • Potential Role in Operational Attribution Activity: • act as an independent broker • perform studies that complement NOAA Service, e.g. build on recent work such as UK study on northern Europe 2000 flooding; US study on a conditional probability methodology for real time attribution of extremes • provide a global context for operational attribution

  9. COA Program Review Panel 6: Detection and Attribution • Grants driven research (C2D2) Climate Change Detection & Attribution Studies: Document the quantitative character of observed climate variations and changes (detection); attribute changes to specific forcings/feedbacks (attribution) [Joint Activity with DoE]

  10. COA Program Review Panel 6: Detection and Attribution • Example from Qiang Fu, U. of Washington • The spatial distribution of tropospheric and stratospheric temperature trends for 1979-2005 was examined, based on radiances from the satellite-borne microwave sounding units (MSUs) processed with state-of-the-art retrieval algorithms.

  11. Enhanced Mid-latitude Tropospheric (Stratospheric) warming (cooling) both hemispheres have experienced enhanced tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling in the 15-45o latitude belt, spatial pattern in the trends appears to be a robust feature of this 26-year record and favors an increased frequency of droughts over many semi-arid regions of the world. Fu, Johanson, Wallace and Reichler (2006, Science)

  12. COA Program Review Panel 6: Detection and Attribution • Climate Change Science Plan (CCSP) Synthesis and Assessment Products (SAPs) • SAP 1.1 (Vertical Temperature Trends) and SAP 3.3 (Extremes in North America) both contain sections on Detection and Attribution. • SAP 1.3: Reanalysis & Attribution of Causes of Observed Change

  13. COA Program Review Panel 6: Detection and Attribution • How does NOAA develop detection/attribution statements? • How timely are these statements? • Is it possible to develop this into a routine service?

  14. Climate Detection and Attribution • Planning and decisions to manage risks are made based on understanding (perception) of what has happened, why it happened, and what is the likelihood of it happening again in the future • Improved partnerships with existing public and private sector climate information providers will provide a critical link to the policy and decision making communities

  15. Key Question: Natural Variability or Climate Change The credibility of regional climate services will be improved by offering understandings of the origin of climate impacts including known unknowns Post 1995 trend Post 1970 trend USA Today Front Page Headline 10 January 2007 El Niño gives USA its hottest year in '06 Seasonal values of the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index for the North Atlantic

  16. A NOAA Climate Attribution Service:Why? ° Policy makers don’t just want to know what happened, but why it happened…. the answer to the latter influences decisions. ° A regular attribution activity….. explaining climate anomalies and outlooks, is core to NOAA’s climate service. ° Fall 2005 The US House Committee on Science met to have NOAA explain its prediction of hurricanes. Spring 2006 The Senate Commerce Disaster Prevention & Prediction Subcommittee requested NOAA to explain persistent drought conditions in the West. “El Nino did it”

  17. A NOAA Climate Attribution Service:a) Explaining Evolving Climate Conditions Is This Our Grandfather’s Drought? June 1998-May 2002 200-mb Z

  18. A NOAA Climate Attribution Service:b)Explaining Success & Failure of Climate Outlooks • Seasonal climate outlooks rely on few predictors (e.g. state of ENSO; trends), allowing one to make a probabilistic assessment of success and failures for such outlooks Why Didn’t the California Rains Emerge? November - February 2007 Outlook & Verification

  19. A NOAA Climate Attribution Service:c) Developing Timely Fact Sheets What Caused Record 2006 US Warmth? • Observed warmth is statistically consistent only with the population sample drawn from greenhouse gas forced experiments, but • was not consistent with either the population of “El Niño climates” nor pre-industrial climates.

  20. A NOAA Climate Attribution Service:d) An Annual “Attribution” Report Routinely Explain our Climate System’s State • NOAA currently has an annual descriptive review of the “State of the Climate” • A parallel review explaining key aspects of the “State of Climate” is required

  21. A NOAA Climate Attribution Service • Benefits to NOAA • Providing routine explanations of climate conditions and predictions enhance credibility of NOAA climate services. • Near real time explanations of climate conditions and predictions will improve future predictions. • A regular attribution service provides a direct portal for the ongoing transfer of NOAA research to operations. • Benefits to Decision Makers and the Public • Providing ‘One NOAA’ message via timely fact sheets • Timely attribution meets surging public interest and need for prompt climate information • A attribution service isstewardship….an obligation of NOAA to conduct careful, responsible science for public good.

  22. COA Program Review Panel 6: Detection and Attribution The End

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