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Recommendations

Recommendations. SEMCOG Travel Model Improvement Program. 12-Dec-2011. Donnelly, Davidson, Binkowksi & Arens. Goals. Needs driven. Best practice, defensible, credible. Data, resources. Life-cycle view, incremental. Evolutionary, compatible. Responsive Current Attainable Agile

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Recommendations

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  1. Recommendations SEMCOG Travel Model Improvement Program 12-Dec-2011 Donnelly, Davidson, Binkowksi & Arens

  2. Goals Needs driven Best practice, defensible, credible Data, resources Life-cycle view, incremental Evolutionary, compatible Responsive Current Attainable Agile Extensible

  3. An elusive definition

  4. Analytical needs

  5. PB’s vision Megascope Macroscope Mesoscope Microscope Economic triggers for freight flows Multimodal person and freight tours Time-sliced demand by mode Dynamic traffic assignment to planning network Regional model of economic, trade, and land use trends Activity or tour-based microsimulation of person and freight travel Detailed traffic analysis of key facilities and corridors Transport costs and reliability Congestion indices, link and node delay Aggregate costs and accessibilities MDOT statewide model SEMCOG Ax model Ad hoc model(s)

  6. An alternative E6/7 model

  7. Another alternative Source: Michael Batty, University College London

  8. Over the horizon Inductive and deductive Generative / AI Utility maximization Estimation Travel data Theory Cross-sectional Neural networks Pattern recognition Passive data Trends Time series Objects Embedded data Linear / monolithic Agents Distributed databases Concurrent (parallel, distributed)

  9. Dynamic traffic assignment to planning network Regional model of economic, trade, and land use trends Activity or tour-based microsimulation of person and freight travel Detailed traffic analysis of key facilities and corridors Multi-scale travel modeling Megascope Macroscope Mesoscope Microscope Economic triggers for freight flows Multimodal person and freight tours Time-sliced demand by mode Transport costs and reliability Congestion indices, link and node delay Aggregate costs and accessibilities Microsimulation or GIS-based land use model(s) Location choices Aggregate costs and accessibilities

  10. Trips versus tours Households & firms Aggregate (zonal) attributes Trip generation Long term choices Daily tour generation Trip distribution Temporal allocation Primary location & mode Temporal allocation Intermediate stop(s) Mode choice Trip mode choice Networkdata Traffic assignment Traffic assignment

  11. Getting there from here Responsive Current Attainable Agile Extensible • Incremental • Shared components • Travel behavior data (surveys, …) • Networks • Target and validation data • Etc. • Coincides with staff development • Fully operational models at each stage

  12. Transition strategy: demand side

  13. Advantages Deeper insight Get dynamics right DTA linkage more straight-forward Eliminate NHB trips Excels for equity and pricing studies Analogous to 100 percent travel survey

  14. Transition strategy: supply side

  15. Advantages Enables robust tactical solutions Get dynamics right DTA linkage more straight-forward

  16. Transition strategy: data programs Traditional Innovative

  17. In a nutshell Finish E series Phased transition to AB models f import & calibrate Phased transition to regional DTA model Ad hoc traffic microsimulation New, overhauled data programs g models, reporting Comparable investment in wetware required

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