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The Swedish Energy Foresight . Energy supply and use in Sweden 2001, TWh. Use of electricity in Sweden 1970–2001. Electricity production in Sweden 1970–2001. Energy supplies to district heating 1970–2001.
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Swedish imports of crude oil and petroleum products, 1972–2001 by country of origin (million tonnes, net)
Not just another energy study • Energy is a resource for sustainable development – not a problem • Focus on the reduction of the negative effects of energy use – not on the use of energy • International developments are important • Energy does not shape society – energy systems are shaped by society • Transport, industry and buildings – integrated parts in the energy system
Sustainable development – not just environment Source: UN Global Compact
A scenario approach • Scenarios are tools for building different conceivable future energy systems – not forecasts of the future. • Scenarios should provide provoking, credible and relevant visions, but not necessarily the most likely or desirable ones. • Scenarios should take into consideration the deep currents driving the development of energy systems – not merely individual events.
Organization • System foresight panel • User foresight panel • Structure foresight panel • Long-term foresight panel • Expert teams on different energy sources
Deliverables • A summary report • Panel reports • Factual reports • A process
Energy demand • Major energy savings in buildings – but more buildings to heat or cool • More efficient office and household appliances – but more appliances in need of electricity • Spread of integrated transport solutions and better logistics – but an increased demand of transport • Improved efficiency in industrial processes – but an annual increase in production
Two scenarios • Climate in focus • Climate - one factor among others
Natural gas, clean coal and new nuclear - a bridge to a solar and hydrogen society Energy Natural gas Clean coal New nuclear Solar energy Hydrogen Oil & coal Nuclear Time
Climate in focus– characteristics • Internationally harmonized measures to reduce emissions • More efficient economic measures • R&D and new infrastructures • Emphasis on energy efficiency • Higher energy prices
Energy supply in Sweden 2050for the scenario Climate in focus? • Hydro as today • Solar-based electricity other than hydro (e.g. bio, wind, solar cells) and hydrogen fuel cells have a considerable and growing market share • Existing nuclear reactors have been partly replaced after 60 years of operation. A new generation of nuclear technology offers improved safety and a bridge to a solar and hydrogen society. • A majority of vehicles have fuel cells with hydrogen produced from natural gas with carbon sequestration and from renewable energy. • Heating with bio, heat pumps and electricity (low energy buildings)
Climate a factor among others– characteristics • Limited harmonisation • Focus on the local environment rather than on the global • Emphasis on local production of heat and electricity • Voluntary market-oriented actions from industry
Energy supply in Sweden 2050 for Climate - one factor among others? • Hydro as today • Solar-based electricity other than hydro (e.g. bio, wind, solar cells) has a limited but growing market share • Existing nuclear reactors phased out after 40 years of operation and replaced by electricity from natural gas. • A majority of vehicles use fossil fuels, liquid and natural gas fuels from natural gas where available. Only zero emission cars are allowed in central parts of urban areas. • Heating using bio, natural gas, heat pumps and electricity (low energy buildings).
Priority questions inthe two scenarios • The level and composition of energy demand? • Replacement of the existing nuclear reactors? • Replacement/reduction of oil-derived fuels for transport?
Industry profile Export share % Knowledge content (”price per kilo”)
Energy in buildings 2020 • Solar collectors • Insulation and windows • Efficient heating andventilation • systems • Individual metering of heat and water • Result is 40% reduction of heating requirements. • Solar collectors • Insulation and windows • Efficient ventilation. Heat exchanger • 85% efficiency. • Heating from electric appliances • Result is 50% reduction of energy use without additional building costs.
Energy in buildings 2020 Energy use one-family houses
Transportation in 2020 - availability of fuel cell vehicles
Efficiency ofWell to Wheel Source: Toyota trial calculations
Total use of energy in Sweden Decreased use of energy in the Residental sector will compensate for increased use in Industry and Transport
Nuclear reactors 40-60 years Oskarshamn 1 Oskarshamn 2 Oskarshamn 3 Ringhals 1 Ringhals 2 Ringhals 3 Ringhals 4 Forsmark 1 Forsmark 2 Forsmark 3 Barsebäck 2 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Production cost new electricity 2002 Blueparts of the bars show costs after futureadd-ons (taxes and emission rights) and deductions ("green”certificates and wind power bonuses).
Separation and storage of CO2 from electricity generation(coal) EUR/ton CO2 Development of total estimated cost (separation, transport and storage) 100 50 with further developed technology 2000 1990
Institutional, industrial and technical structures in 2020 Climate – one factor among others– other issues surface Climate in focus– requires joint European actions European co-ordination of the energy field Diverging European development in the energy field Level European playing field – yields an oligopoly situation – few large actors with similar business Different playing fields – different business opportunities – multitude of actors of different size
Climate - one factor among others Half nuclear phased out Large scale introduction ofnatural gas Weak incentives for energy efficiency Diverging European energy market Climate in focus No change in nuclear Limited use of natural gas Strong incentives for energy efficiency Co-ordinated European energy market Sweden 2020?
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