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Sustainable Infrastructure Jeanne Huang Ph.D, P. Eng School of Civil Engineering

R ece n t Clim a t e Chan g e R esea r ch in Tianjin a n d its Implic a tion f or. Sustainable Infrastructure Jeanne Huang Ph.D, P. Eng School of Civil Engineering Tianjin University. 1 、 Introduction and Urban Flooding. 2 、 Research on Urban Precipitation.

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Sustainable Infrastructure Jeanne Huang Ph.D, P. Eng School of Civil Engineering

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  1. RecentClimateChangeResearch in Tianjinandits Implicationfor Sustainable Infrastructure Jeanne Huang Ph.D, P. Eng School of Civil Engineering Tianjin University

  2. 1、Introduction and Urban Flooding 2、Research on Urban Precipitation 3 、Sustainable Infrastructure 4 、Conclusions TianjinUniversity

  3. 1 Introduction and Urban Flooding TianjinUniversity

  4. IntroductionFlooding death toll in China （1950-2010） 45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Flood death toll 42,447 people died during the big flood of 1954 20000 The 1931 big floods in the Yangtze & Huai River basins, 51 million people affected and 400,000 died 4349 3909 15000 8571 10000 5181 4091 5000

  5. Flood economic losses in China (1990-2010) Directeconomiclosses(billion RMB 450 4.5 • In 2010, only 35.3% of the flood losses came from the • damages of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and 400 4 fishery. The other nearly 2/3 of the total losses was composed of the damages of industry, traffic and transportation, and the damages of infrastructures. 350 3.5 Relative losses(%) 300 3 250 2.5 • Especially,morethan250 citiesator abovethecounty 200 2 levelwere inundatedin2010, andmostof themwere causedby thelocalrainstorms. 150 1.5 2.39 0.64 100 1 50 0.5 0 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year Data Source:BulletinofFloodand DroughtDisastersinChina(2010)

  6. Death toll caused by flood related hazards in China (1980-2010) 8000 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 7000 The dead and missing in Zhouqu debris flow event: 1765=1510+255 6000 5000 4349 4225 death toll 4150 Dead: 3222 Missing:1003 Total:4225 3909 4000 3000 2000 1454 1000 0 Year Data Source:BulletinofFloodand DroughtDisastersinChina(2010)

  7. Deathtoll causedbyflashflood,landslide anddebrisflowin China(1991-2010) 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 dead rate Zhouqu:1765 death toll Dead: 2824 (not including missing) Year Data Source:BulletinofFloodand DroughtDisastersinChina(2010)

  8. Causing Analysis (1) • Climatefluctuation Annualaverageprecipitationin Chinafrom2000to2010 Data Source:ChinaWaterResources Bulletin(2000- 2010),MWR.

  9. Causing Analysis (2) • Rapid economic development • Rapid growth of Population • Rapid changes of Land use due to urbanization and infrastructures construction 45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 GDP and Financial Revenue (Billion RMB) GDP Financial Revenue 10000 5000 0 1966 1969 1978 1981 1993 1996 2008 1960 1972 1975 1987 1990 2002 2005 1963 1984 1999 Year

  10. Common featuresofurbanization • Urbanization rate rising from 20% to 40%, the UK spent 120 years, France 100 years, Germany 80 years, the USA 40 years, while China took only 22 years. • During such rapid process, underground infrastructures as drainage system were always being ignored. The governors of cities have to pay more attention to some critical issues such as housing, traffic jam, power supply, water supply, and so on, taking the so called policy “on the ground priority”. 1 0

  11. UrbanFloodsDamagesIncreased inChina A series of large cities suffered by severe flood in recent years: Nanjing, Beijing, Shanghai, Wuhan, Gangzhou, Fuzhou, Intra-urban flooding occurred in Beijing in July 10, 2004 Shenzhen, Xian, Hangzhou, Jinan, Fluvial flooding, Wuzhou, Guangxi, June 22, 2005 Zhenzhou,Chongqing, Chengdu… Wuhan June 18 2011 Guangzhou,May 7, 2010 Flash flood occurred in Jinan in July 18, 2007

  12. OnJuly21,2012,Beijingwas struckby heavyrainstormagain. The day is as dark as the night. Severe traffic jams occurred, and large number of people plugging on the way. Max. rainfall: 460mm ; and 128.9mm/hr Ave. rainfall: 63 mm;

  13. 句學

  14. How thechallengescan be addressed • Rapid process of urbanization • Weak flood control and drainage system • The gap between rich and poor • Increasing uncertainties in global warming • • …… ？ ？ How to restore the balance? C D Where can we find some other weights? scale How to meet the basic needs of survival? Lower demands in security Flood control system developed in a whacky circle Lower technical ability Low level of urbanization Undeveloped stage How to enhance or create new balance step by step to meet the demands of rapid and smooth development? How to keep or rehabilitate the existed balance? How to cope with the challenges coming in the future? High level of management, with strong economic and technical capacities Sustainable development stage Developing stage

  15. Coping Strategies (1) • The investment has been increased several fold in enhancing • flood control system by comprehensive measures. • Formed a new thinking to promote a harmonious relationship between man and nature in water governance for the sustainable development since. • To promote the “two shifts” in flood control and drought relief affairs, i.e. shifting “from flood control to flood Management” and “from simplex drought-fighting to comprehensive drought management”. • A series of measures have been taken to enhance the • emergency response system and capacity building. • Taking the people's livelihood related water issues as a more • prominent and top-priority tasks. • 15 1998 2000 2003 2006 2007

  16. Coping Strategies (2) • In 2009, 200 million Yuan RMB was invested in the development of non-structural measures for early warning of flash floods in 103 pilot counties, which increased to 500 in 2010. The number is expected to increase up to 1,836 in 3 years. • In the beginning of 2011, the No 1 Document issued by the Central Government aimed to accelerate the reform and development of water governance. • 16

  17. Coping Strategies (3) • The input for water security and sustainable utilization will be multiplied by the governments at all levels, i.e. to invest 400 billion Yuan RMB on average per year in the 12th and 13th Five-year Plans (2011-2020). • The National Master Plan for the Integrated Management of Medium and Small Rivers, the Reinforcement for Unsafe Reservoirs, and Prevention and Comprehensive Treatment of Flash Flood and Mountain Disasters have been discussed and approved by the State Council in early April 2011.

  18. 2 Recent Climate Research for Tianjin City City TianjinUniversity

  19. Tianjin Tianjin is a dual-core city, with its main urban area (including the old city) located along the Hai River, which connects to the Yellow and Yangtze Rivers via the Grand Canal.

  20. Trend in Average Temperature (The City of Tianjin)

  21. Trend inAverage Precipitation (The CityofTianjin)

  22. Trend Analysis for Annual and Seasonal Precipitation Change Z=1.96 ->confidence level = 95%

  23. Seasonal Variation Summer Spring 4 4 UF 统计量 UF 统计量 k k UB 统计量 UB 统计量 k 0.05显著水平 k0.05显著水平 2 2 统计量 统计量 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -4 1960 1970 1980 年份 1990 2000 1960 1970 1980 年份 1990 2000 4 4 UF 统计量 UF 统计量 k k UB 统计量 UB 统计量 k 0.05显著水平 k 0.05显著水平 2 2 统计量 统计量 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -4 1960 1970 1980 年份 1990 2000 1960 1970 1980 年份 1990 2000 Fall Winter

  24. 4 4 UF 统计量 UF 统计量 k k UB 统计量 UB 统计量 k 0.05显著水平 k 0.05显著水平 2 2 统计量 统计量 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -4 1960 1970 1980 年份 1990 2000 1960 1970 1980 年份 1990 2000 August July

  25. Design Storm Study 1 IDFfittingMethods 2 RainfallDistributionStudy 3 AreaReductionFactorStudy

  26. IDF Curve Development Pearson III General Extreme Value Gumbel Exponential distribution

  27. Comparison of IDF Curves 3.0 旧2 旧3 新2 新 3 2.5 Intensity(mm/min) 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0 50 100 150 200 Duration (Min) Comparing 2 y and 3y return period IDF Curves

  28. Comparison of IDF Curves Comparing2yand3yreturnperiodIDFCurvesfor6hrsRainEvent

  29. Huff Rainfall Distribution RainfallEventSeparation Storm1 Storm2 Minimum Time： 12hrs Threshold ： 20mm 雨峰 雨峰 降雨强度 雨峰 雨峰 D D 2 1 D 3 降雨持续时间

  30. 0.4 0.8 概率水平50% 概率水平10% 时段雨量占总雨量的比例 时段雨量占总雨量的比例 Secondary 0.4 Most Critical 0.0 0 20 80 100 40 60 时间累积百分比 0.0 0 20 40 60 时间累积百分比 80 100 0.4 概率水平90% 时段雨量占总雨量的比例 Lest Critical 0.2 0.0 0 20 40 60 时间累积百分比 80 100

  31. RainfallDistributionforDifferentTimePeriods 100 100 1hr 80 80 降雨量累积百分比 降雨量累积百分比 60 60 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 40 3hr 40 20 20 0 0 20 60 0 10 30 降雨历时(min) 40 50 0 30 60 90 降雨历时(min) 120 150 180 100 100 80 6hr 80 降雨量累积百分比 60 降雨量累积百分比 60 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 40 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 40 12hr 20 20 0 0 60 120 180240 降雨历时(min) 300 360 0 0 120 240 360480 降雨历时(min) 600 720

  32. July21,2012Storm inTianjin(observed) CitywideAverage Downtown Core

  33. Comparison of Design Storm Distribution with July 21, 2012 Storm (Downtown) 10% 50% 90%

  34. Comparison of Design Storm Distribution with July 21, 2012 Storm (Citywide) 30 Year Samples for Design Storm 54 Year Samples for Design Storm 10% 50%

  35. Area Reduction Study 4 years data in minute from 28 digital rain gauges for 250 km2

  36. Thiessen Method

  37. ReductionRateforCityof Tianjin 1.0 1hr 3hr 6hr 12hr 24hr 0.8 For shorter period rainfall, the reduction rate drop more steeply 点面折减系数 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0 50 100 区域面积 150 200

  38. 3 Sustainable Infrastructure TianjinUniversity

  39. UrbanDevelopment andItsChangesto theNatural WaterBalance AGuideBookforBCStormwaterPlanning

  40. Changein Hydrology Single Family Residential (large lots) Single Family Residential (small lots) Mixed Land Use-High Density Rural/Undeveloped Increasing channel Erosions Decreasing Base flows Increasing Peak flows NatureCondition SlightImpact SignificationImpact MajorImpact

  41. Single Family Residential (large lots) Single Family Residential (small lots) Mixed Land Use-High Density Rural/Undeveloped Decreasing Base flows NaturalCondition Increasing Peak flows Increasing channel Erosions Increasing Temperature SlightImpact Signification Impact constructed cross-section Major Impact

  42. Guiding Principles: ADAPT Design for the complete spectrum of rainfall event D Act on a priority basis in at-risk drainage catchments Agree that storm water is a resource A A ADAPT Plan at four scales – regional, watershed, neighborhood and site Test solutions and reduces costs by adaptive management P T

  43. Low Impact Development 低影响开发 1. Mimic Original Eco system in terms of hydrological aspects 2. Decentralized Control Strategy 3. Use source control in stead of End Control

  44. SummaryofLIDPrinciples • Stormwater: • Slow it down • Spread it out • Soak it in

  45. 2007DryYear TotalPrecipitation:634mm

  46. No SurfaceRunoffupto approx 25mm Removingmost contaminants foundinparkinglot

  47. 3 Conclusions TianjinUniversity

  48. Conclusions In Urban Area, rainfall is localized, it makes the flooding issue more severe and give more pressure for infrastructure 1 Precipitation is one of very important driven forces for the change of eco system 2 Integrated Water Resources Management/LID might be the solution to restore the original hydrologic cycle and relief part of the pressure to our infrastructure 3

  49. TheEnd

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