IENG 451 - Lecture 12

1. IENG 451 - Lecture 12 Improvement Selection: Developing Criteria, Pair-wise Ranking, FMEA IENG 451 Operational Strategies

2. Improvement: Selection Criteria • At some point in every project, the set of potential improvement solutions must be narrowed. Criteria must be developed to do this: • CTQs must be addressed • The “triple constraint” that must be considered in every project forms additional criteria that must be considered: • Time • Budget • Functionality (objectives of the project) • Other criteria should be addressed, too, before beginning the down-select process: • Safety Requirements • Regulatory Requirements • Strategic Alignment of the Project • Ethics of the Project • Politics of the Project • … and more! IENG 451 Operational Strategies

3. Developing Criteria • Some questions to help determine selection criteria: • What will the best solution(s) look like? • What are the barriers to implementation? • What types of solutions are the cheapest to implement? • Which types of solutions will be the most dramatic or visible? • Which types of solutions will show fastest results? • Which types of solutions will deliver the greatest return for the investment? • Which types of solutions will be easiest to implement ? (least resistance) IENG 451 Operational Strategies

4. Down-Select Process • (Down-selecting the criteria may be necessary, too) The goal is to come up with a tractable solution selection process. Steps: • Remove non-starters from the list – consider: • Organizational fit • Management commitment • Organizational values and strategic factors • Operating / management systems • Determine Goal Impact for remaining solutions • Standalone Solutions – must be completely independent of other solutions • Coupled Solutions – can attain desired performance working with other solns • Additive Solutions – improve overall performance on top of other solutions • Narrow the list • Multi-voting • CDAM (Combine, Delete, Add, Modify) • Create a Selection (Decision) Matrix, Pair-Wise Ranking or FMEA and evaluate alternatives IENG 451 Operational Strategies

5. Decision (Solution Selection) Matrix • Decision Matrix is used to prioritize semi-quantitatively. Steps: • Identify the items to be compared: • List on the left side in the matrix • Review criteria for comparison • Estimate the relative Weights of the criteria with the entire group • Create criteria and weights for comparison • List the Criteria on the top of each column on the matrix • List the Weights below each criterion in the matrix • Score each option on every criterion • Use team opinion to score each solution • Record the result in each cell • Compute the Weighted Total for each option • Weighted Total = Sum of the Weight * Score on all criteria • Interpret results after all comparisons are complete • Higher weighted totals are preferred options • Beware of weighted totals that are very close, though (resolution problem!) IENG 451 Operational Strategies

6. Decision Matrix Example • Available from the Materials Page: IENG 451 Operational Strategies

7. Pairwise Ranking • Pair-wise Ranking is used to prioritize qualitatively. Steps: • Identify the items to be compared: • List on a white board for everyone to see • Label the options (letters or numbers) for identification in the matrix • Create a square matrix for comparison • Label both the rows and columns with the identifiers for each option • Block out the diagonal and the lower triangular portion of the matrix • Review criteria for comparison • … for clarity of the entire group • Compare each option with every other option • Use voting to select the better solution in head-to-head comparison • Use only the top triangular portion to avoid duplication of comparisons • Record the results in the cell • List the winner and the winning vote tally • Interpret results after all comparisons are complete • Listing the winning vote tallies often emphasizes the strong differences • Higher winning vote tallies prioritize the options (highest to lowest) IENG 451 Operational Strategies

8. Pairwise Ranking Example • Comparing A to B: B wins 4 to 2 • Comparing A to C: A wins 4 to 2 • Comparing A to D: D wins 5 to 1 • Comparing B to C: B wins 6 to 0 • Comparing B to D: B wins 5 to 1 • Comparing C to D: C wins 6 to 0 (Sometimes have consistency problems! A beats C, and D beats A, but C beats D?) • Overall: B-15, C-6, D-5, A-4 • So prefer B greatly • then prefer C ... • AHP(similar process) estimates consistency issue severity A 4 B 4 D 5 B 6 B 5 C 6 IENG 451 Operational Strategies

9. FMEA • An acronym for Failure Modes and Effects Analysis. • The purpose of an FMEA is to provide a structured method to: • Identify the ways in which the system can fail • Estimate the risk of specific failure mechanisms • Prioritize the actions necessary to reduce or eliminate the risks • Generate a plan for validating the choice of Improvement Stage solution(s) • FMEA may be used in other stages of the project. Examples: • To understand the risks of the project in the Define Stage • To prioritize KPIVs for the Measurement Stage • To understand the solution implementation risks in the Analyze Stage • To assess the effectiveness of the plan for the Control Stage. IENG 451 Operational Strategies

10. FMEA Process Steps • Review the process, service, or product to identify the steps, stages or components • Brainstorm the possible failure modes for each step/stage • Identify the potential effects for each failure mode • Assign severity ratings and likelihood of each occurrence • Severity is rated 1 – 10, a rating of 10 is the most severe • Likelihood is rated 1 – 10, with a 10 being the most likely to occur • List current monitoring /controls for each failure, estimate a detectability rating • Detectability is rated 1 – 10, a rating of 10 being the least likely to be detected in current controls • Calculate the Risk Priority Number (RPN) for each failure • RPN = Severity x Likelihood x Detectability • Prioritize the failure modes using the RPNs • Sort high to low (Pareto Order) • Plan to reduce or eliminate risk associated with high priority failure modes • Identify potential / root causes • Develop Preventative Action Plans to reduce or eliminate root causes before occurrence • Develop Contingent Action Plans to limit damage caused after occurrence • Implement plans and document • Re-compute RPNs and assess for implementation readiness IENG 451 Operational Strategies

11. FMEA Example Spreadsheet • Available from the Materials Page: IENG 451 Operational Strategies

12. Questions & Issues • Exam Review is next class • On-Campus exam is next Thursday at LAB (providing a 2 hour exam period!) • Distance / On-line exam instructions were covered earlier in term (see Lecture 01) • E-mail instructor for ADA accommodations IENG 451 Operational Strategies